PTA: It Has Become A Pillar Of The Industry Chain.

PX has fallen by more than 10% since the beginning of the year, but PTA has fallen by only about 4%, and the market has shown a marked downward trend. Recently, oil prices rose sharply amid the easing of trade between China and the United States. The stock prices of polyester factories dropped further and the maintenance of several sets of PTA devices was reported. The price of PTA began to strengthen. The main 1909 contract rebounded from low level of 5100 yuan / ton to 5500 yuan / ton, and successfully began to challenge 40 day moving average after 20 days of moving average. At present, the factory profit margin has reached a new high in recent years, which proves that PTA is becoming the pillar of the whole polyester industry.

Traditionally, raw material PX occupies the most powerful position in polyester industry chain, but this phenomenon is changing quietly in the near future. In 2019, PX production capacity broke out. As of now, Fuhai Chuang Hengli Petrochemical has been put into operation, and Zhongzhe petrochemical, Sinopec, Hongrun and Hainan refinery will also be commissioning. In the second half of this year, Huizhou refinery, Xinjiang, China and Thailand and Dongying chemical joint venture have trial production plans. In addition, Hengyi Brunei will also operate this year, and the goods will be shipped back to China directly.

Roughly calculated in 2019, China's PX production capacity will increase by at least 10 million tons, with a growth rate of 75%. However, compared with the 16 million ton import volume, PX supply is still slightly insufficient. At the same time, the possibility of maintaining a strong oil is more likely to support PX. So for PTA, the collapse of distance cost is also. fashion Good morning! The development of PX in China will become more restrictive to PTA.

China is the world's largest producer and consumer of PTA. In 2018, China's PTA production capacity was about 52 million tons (including idle capacity), occupying 58% of global capacity, and its output was about 40 million tons. Over the past few years, the supply surplus has slowed down the new capacity in recent years. Since 2016, only Han Bang two phase, Jiaxing petrochemical and Sichuan chemical industry have been put into operation, and some old devices have been restarted. Although the first phase of Xinjiang Zhongtai, the new Feng Ming phase and the Hengli Petrochemical four phase have a trial run at the end of the year, there is still a period from the formal production. PTA's peak production is expected to arrive after 2020, so in the short term relative to the expansion scale of the downstream polyester industry, PTA shipment pressure is not large, the seller has strong voice.

The polyester industry in the lower reaches began to recover in 2017, and the capacity and output of polyester increased rapidly and reached its peak in 2018-2019 years. According to statistics, the production capacity of polyester has increased by about 8 million tons in the past 2017-2018 years. By the end of 2018, the total production capacity of polyester is about 54 million tons, and its output is about 46 million tons, corresponding to the PTA demand of about 40 million tons.

In the 2019-2020 year, there are still more than 8 million tons planned to enter the market. It is expected that the demand for PTA will continue to be stronger in the lower reaches of the PTA before the next peak.

In addition, the concentration of domestic PTA industry is also gradually increasing. After years of integration, acquisition, reorganization and expansion, Hengli, Rong Sheng, Heng Yi, Sheng Hong, and Tong Kun and other private enterprises are rising. With the integration of the project, production enterprises will further increase their market control ability.

1, the industrial chain is gradually improving.

It is estimated that in 2018, global demand for polyester was about 80 million tons, of which the demand for PTA was about 68 million tons, and the demand for PX was about 44 million tons. China now occupies more than 50% of the world's PTA capacity. From the scale of the single line PTA, China's domestic installations are far ahead, and the new installations are mostly over 2 million tons per line, far exceeding the average overseas level.

At present, the domestic PTA market is dominated by Yisheng, Hengli and other industry giants, and a number of small and medium-sized enterprises complement the industry pattern. The industry discourse power is firmly in the hands of PTA. With strong financial strength, PTA factories have embarked on the development of vertical industry chain.

In the 2019-2023 year, the PTA expansion enterprises in China are mostly built for polyester enterprises and the existing PX enterprises to improve the industrial chain, or pursue the scale effect, enhance the comprehensive competitiveness and resist the risk ability. In the future, China PTA will hardly see a single enterprise with 1 million tons / year of the following small capacity installations, and will continue to show the dominant position of private enterprises.

2, actively expand to the upstream PX

PX's profits are relatively large, and its demand for PX is strong. PTA factories have extended their antennae to the PX field. Sinopec, a wholly owned subsidiary of Rong Sheng banner, has 900 thousand tons of PX capacity in Ningbo, but continues to expand its production capacity to 2 million tons. In terms of Hengyi, Brunei's annual output of 8 million tons of PMB refinery project can produce 1 million 500 thousand tons of PX annually, 1 million tons of chemical light oil, 800 thousand tons of stupid toluene, 1 million 730 thousand tons of diesel oil, 380 thousand tons of gasoline, 1 million 280 thousand tons of aviation kerosene, and so on.

3, improve downstream polyester production capacity

PTA is not only dominant in the PTA industry, but also plays an important role in the downstream polyester industry. At present, the annual production capacity of Hengyi Petrochemical holding company is 6 million 300 thousand tons, of which the annual production capacity of polyester bottle is 1 million 500 thousand tons, the annual production capacity of polyester filament is 4 million 150 thousand tons, and the polyester fiber's annual production capacity is 650 thousand tons. Rong Sheng has polyester production capacity of more than 1 million 100 thousand tons; Hengli Group spinning and polymerization capacity of 1 million 600 thousand tons, is the world's largest weaving enterprises.

As of 2018, the nominal capacity of China's polyester yarn industry totaled 36 million 340 thousand tons, CR6 was 51.7%, the industry's top six and nominal capacity market share were: Tong Kun 14.9%, Heng Yi 13.7%, new Feng Ming 9.1%, Sheng Hong 5.2%, Hengli 4.8%, Rongsheng 4%.

The market share of the top five polyester filament industry in the next three years is generally on the rise except Sheng Hong. The new capacity in the next three years will come from almost all the leading industries. In the next three years, the polyester filament industry has added 7 million 770 thousand tons of capacity. Only the top five producers of the industry have contributed 6 million 400 thousand tons of capacity increment.

4, strong ability to regulate industrial chain.

With PX-PTA- polyester - chemical fiber Weaving vertical integration industry layout, PTA factory has abundant profit sources. According to the actual situation of different industries in the industrial chain, it can adapt to the current situation and adjust the source of industrial profits in a timely manner without betting on the PTA industry.

The polyester industry chain has undergone great changes in the past few years and in the next few years. Similar to other industries, China's PTA market has gradually squeezed the capacity of Japan and South Korea after years of industry expansion. After many years of industry integration, China's downstream chemical fiber enterprises are also expanding the capacity of PTA, and upgrading the raw material industry chain from downstream to upstream. The main source of PTA is expected to be put into operation in 2019. Material Science PX's self sufficiency will be greatly enhanced.

At the same time, polyester leading enterprises will continue to expand in the PTA industry and improve the integration of upstream and downstream industries. The status of PTA, which was marginalized between PX and polyester in the past, is becoming higher and higher, and is gradually becoming the pillar of the whole industry chain. We need to be cautious about the impact of Sino US trade war. Spin The impact of industrial exports is more obvious. At the same time, the significant increase in PTA capacity after 2020 is also a problem that can not be ignored in the industry. (source: chemical online, Qian Tang information)