Can China's Textile Industry Leave The United States? The "One Belt And One Way" Country, VS, USA

The Sino US trade dispute is undoubtedly one of the biggest concerns of the market participants in the past six months, and the trend of negotiations has been affecting the people of cotton spinning enterprises. If we leave the US, will China's cotton textile industry survive?

The author recently collected, collated and analyzed the import and export data of textile raw materials and textile products, cotton, knitted or crocheted garments and accessories in the countries along the belt and road. The samples were collected from 15 Statistical monthly reports issued by the 64 countries along the "one belt and one road" and the general Administration of Customs (that is, the list of the categories of exporters and exporters in some countries (regions) and the list of Importers' category sizes from some countries (regions)), namely, Oman, Pakistan, Philippines, Kazakhstan, Romania, Malaysia, Burma, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, Singapore, Iran, Iran, Iran and Vietnam. By comparing these 15 countries with the US data, the following conclusions can be drawn:

1. WTO opens the window to the world for Chinese textiles.

In November 10, 2001, at the Fourth Ministerial Conference of the WTO held in Doha, China considered and approved China's accession to the WTO. China immediately submitted the notice of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress to ratification of China's accession to the WTO protocol. According to WTO rules, a month later, China formally became a member of WTO in December 11, 2001. It is also from this time that the total volume of China's textile export trade began to increase linearly (see chart 1).

Two, "one belt and one road" opens up a new era for China's cotton and textile products.

"One belt and one road" was raised by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013. The "OBAOR" (or One Belt One Road), or "Belt And Road" or "BAR" is the abbreviation of "the Silk Road Economic Belt" and "the twenty-first Century Maritime Silk Road". In September 2013 and October, Chinese President Xi Jinping put forward the strategic conception of building the new Silk Road economic belt and twenty-first Century Maritime Silk Road respectively.

1, Vietnam is "thriving" and "one belt and one road" brings together the country.

According to the large category, Vietnam's data are very eye-catching whether imported or exported in the eleventh kinds of textile raw materials and textile products (see Figure 2, figure 3). The chart is higher than other countries.

In the textile materials and textile products (import) amount chart (Figure 2), the top three are Vietnam, India and Pakistan. Among them, the proportion of China's total imports from Vietnam to the total amount of the 15 countries increased from 21.8% in 2014 to 41.6% in 2019. The import volume of the top three countries in Vietnam, India and Pakistan accounted for over 70% of the total amount of the 15 countries mentioned above. In 2014, the amount of imports from Vietnam was smaller than that of the United States, and the amount of imports from Vietnam since 2015 was greater than that of the United States (see Table 1).

In the textile material and textile products (export) amount chart (Figure 3), China's exports to Vietnam account for about 30% of the total export volume of the 15 countries mentioned above, of which only one country in Vietnam occupies 3, which should not be underestimated; the total value of exports from 15 countries is more than 1 times that of the United States (see Table 2).

2, knitted or crocheted garments and accessories import and export

From the eleventh category of subordinate chapters, the import amount of garments and accessories from knitting or crochet is still significantly higher than that of other countries (see chart 4). The sum of the sum of the above 3 countries in Vietnam, Turkey and Indonesia accounts for more than 70% of the total amount of 15 countries. The total amount of these 15 countries is 20-120 times that of the United States. The maximum value appeared in 2017, 117.2 times that of the United States (see Table 3).

From the eleventh category of subordinate chapters, the export of knitted or crocheted garments and accessories, before 2016, has been far ahead of Vietnam in terms of exports to other 14 countries. However, in 2016, the export value of Philippines and Malaysia once exceeded Vietnam, and Vietnam dropped to third place. In 2018 Vietnam surpassed Philippines to become the top of the list again (see Figure 5).

Nevertheless, in the export of knitted or crocheted garments and accessories, the total amount of the 15 countries mentioned above is less than that of the United States, and the amount of exports to the United States is about 2 times that of the 15 countries mentioned above (see Table 4), that is to say, in the separate view of textile and clothing, the dominant position of the United States is obvious.

To sum up, although the "belt and road" countries have brought many opportunities to China, and the data also confirm that China has driven Vietnam's import and export in Vietnam in recent years, and the total amount of imports and exports of the "one belt and one road" country is the multiple of the US. That is to say, the import volume of the eleventh types of textile raw materials and textile products is 4-6 times that of the United States, and the export amount is more than 1 times that of the United States. However, from this category, the hegemony of the United States is temporarily shaken in terms of the export of knitted or crocheted garments and accessories.