Interpretation: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index Rebounded In July 2019

In July 31, 2019, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Center and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers Index. In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Investigation Center, made an interpretation.

　　 1. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index has picked up.

In July, the PMI of manufacturing industry was 49.7%, up 0.3 percentage points from last month. It has rebounded since April, and there are many positive changes in the manufacturing sector. First, the industry boom has expanded. Of the 21 industries surveyed, PMI in 12 industries was located in the expansion area, an increase of 3 over the previous month. Tobacco, paper-making printing, medicine, electrical machinery and equipment, computer communications and electronic equipment and other manufacturing industries were more than 51%, and the industry expanded rapidly. Textile, metal products, general equipment and other manufacturing industries PMI below the critical point, the industry boom has dropped. Two, the overall expansion of production and market demand has been improved. Production index and new order index were 52.1% and 49.8%, respectively, up 0.8 and 0.2 percentage points respectively from the previous month, all of which were the first rise in 4 months, especially the production index was higher than the first half of 0.7 percentage points. The purchasing intention of enterprises increased, and the purchase volume index returned to the expansion interval, which was 50.4%. The three is the rising price index. The main raw material purchase price index and factory price index were 50.7% and 46.9%, respectively, up 1.7 and 1.5 percentage points respectively from last month. Four, the import and export index is rising at the same time. Although the new export orders index and import index were below the critical point, they rose 0.6 percentage points to 46.9% and 47.4% respectively. Five, enterprise development is expected to be stable and good. The company's production and business activity anticipation index is 53.6%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, tax and fee reduction, directional reduction and other policy measures to speed up landing, further reducing the burden on enterprises, and playing an important role in stabilizing enterprise confidence.

From the scale of enterprises, the PMI of large enterprises is 50.7%, up 0.8 percentage points from last month to the expansion interval, and the PMI of small and medium enterprises is 48.7% and 48.2%, respectively, 0.4 and 0.1 percentage points lower than that of last month.

　　 Two, non manufacturing business activity index continued to expand rapidly.

In July, the non manufacturing business activity index was 53.7%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month, and the non manufacturing industry remained relatively fast.

The service sector continued to grow. The service business activity index was 52.9%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month, and the growth rate has slowed down. From the perspective of the industry, 20 industries in the 21 industries surveyed are located in the expansion area, and the fundamentals of the service sector are generally better. Among them, the business activity index of railway transportation, air transport, telecommunications and other industries for three consecutive months is located in the relatively high economic zone of 59% and above. The total volume of business continues to grow rapidly. With the promotion of summer consumption, the number of business activities in accommodation, catering, cultural, sports, entertainment and other industries increased by 5.3, 3.5 and 7.6 percentage points respectively, and the industry boom increased rapidly. Although the index of wholesale and financial business activities continued to expand in the expansion area, it fell back from last month, which is a major factor in the slowing down of the boom in the service sector. From the price situation, the index of input price and sales price were 52.7% and 50.5%, respectively, which increased by 1.6 and 1.4 percentage points respectively from the previous month.

The construction industry continued to be located in the higher economic zone. In recent years, many factors were affected by high temperature and heavy rain. The expansion of construction industry slowed down. The index of business activity was 58.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month. From the perspective of labor demand and market expectation, the employees' index and business activity expectation index are 52.1% and 63.7%, respectively, up 1.7 and 1.1 percentage points respectively, indicating that the enterprises are optimistic about the future market and the demand for employment continues to increase.

　　 Three. Comprehensive PMI output index is steadily rising slightly.

In July, the composite PMI output index was 53.1%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from last month, indicating that China's enterprises' production and business activities steadily expanded. The manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index of the composite PMI output index were 52.1% and 53.7%, respectively.