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Short Term Good Ethylene Glycol Strong Shocks

2019/8/22 15:10:00 0

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Domestic supply of ethylene glycol has decreased, port inventory has declined, expected port volume has decreased, downstream polyester demand has slowly increased, and multiple benefits have been boosted.

Fig. 1 price chart of domestic glycol Market

Source: lung Chung

Supply side

Table 1 domestic ethylene glycol unit maintenance list

Unit: 10000 tons, day.

Enterprise name	capacity	Date of maintenance	Eight Monthly maintenance days	Eight Monthly loss
Anhui Huaihua Group Co., Ltd.	Ten	2018.4.28- undetermined	Thirty-one	Zero point nine three
Luoyang Yongjin Chemical Co., Ltd.	Twenty	2018.12.9- undetermined	Thirty-one	One point eight six
Puyang Yongjin Chemical Co., Ltd.	Twenty	4.2- undetermined	Thirty-one	One point eight six
Yongcheng Yongjin Chemical Co., Ltd.	Twenty	7.9- undetermined	Thirty-one	One point eight six
Anyang Yongjin Chemical Co., Ltd.	Twenty	7.20- undetermined	Thirty-one	One point eight six
Xinjiang production and Construction Corps Tian Ying petrochemical Limited by Share Ltd	Fifteen	4.26- undetermined	Thirty-one	One point four zero
China Petroleum Chemical Co Hubei Fertilizer Branch	Twenty	5.15-8.2	Two	Zero point one two
Inner Mongolia Erdos new Hang Energy Co., Ltd.	Thirty-six	8.25- undetermined	Seven	Zero point seven six
Tongliao golden Coal Chemical Industry Co., Ltd.	Thirty	7.15-8.10	Ten	Zero point nine zero
Yangmei group Ping Ding Chemical Co., Ltd.	Twenty	7.8- undetermined	Thirty-one	One point eight six
Inner Mongolia Yi Gao Coal Chemical Technology Co., Ltd.	Twelve	8.15-8.25	Ten	Zero point six zero
yanshan petrochemical	Eight	7.1-10.31	Thirty-one	Zero point seven four
Maoming petrochemical	Twelve	6.17-8.5	Five	Zero point one eight
Dushanzi	Six	7.11-9.11	Thirty-one	Zero point five six
Far East petrochemical	Forty-five	8.19-8.27	Nine	One point two two
Liaoyang petrochemical	Nineteen	Conversion EO ratio 1:19	Thirty-one	One point seven seven
Shanghai petrochemical	Twenty-three	Conversion to EO	Thirty-one	Two point one four
Total	Three hundred and thirty-six			Twenty point six two

Source: lung Chung

According to long Zhong information statistics, up to now, domestic ethylene glycol overhaul enterprises mainly rely on coal enterprises, involving 3 million 360 thousand tons of capacity, and the monthly loss is estimated at 206 thousand and 200 tons, which does not include EO of oil production and a negative reduction of coal production.

Main port reservoir situation

Figure 2 Comparison of domestic and eastern China's main port stock and market prices

Source: lung Chung

It is estimated that (21 -8 August 15th) the port of East China is expected to arrive at 121 thousand tons, of which 30 thousand tons are planned for Zhangjiagang, 26 thousand tons for Taicang wharf, 20 thousand tons for Ningbo, 15 thousand tons for Jiangyin, 30 thousand tons for Shanghai Changshu.

Long Zhong information reported on August 19th: the MEG port in East China's main port area has a stock of about 894 thousand tons, down 75 thousand and 600 tons compared with last Thursday. Among them, 607 thousand tons in Zhangjiagang, a decrease of 37 thousand and 800 tons, a daily average delivery of some 12700 tons of a mainstream warehouse, 71 thousand tons of Ningbo, a reduction of 8 thousand tons, a reduction of 105 thousand tons in Shanghai and Changshu, a reduction of 10 thousand and 800 tons in the ring ratio, 80 thousand tons in Taicang, a 19 thousand decrease in the ring ratio, an average daily shipment of 4400 tons in the mainstream reservoir area, and an increase in Jiangyin's 31 thousand tons.

Demand side

Figure 3 Domestic polyester operating rate chart

Source: lung Chung

Long Zhong information statistics, (August 9th -8 15) polyester industry average start up to 86.17%, a rise of 1.48%, the reason for the rise in the operating rate of the industry is that some parts of the pre production reduction device resumed operation during the week, such as Tiansheng, Baosheng, Jiabao and so on, and there were 300 thousand tons of new polyester installation and operation, and the supply of polyester field increased slightly, so the polyester industry started to rise last week. In the latter part of the factory, the plant load lifting plan, such as Hongtai, far spinning, Rongsheng and so on, is expected to increase slightly or not. As a whole, the demand is increasing.

Overall, domestic ethylene glycol supply decreased, port inventory declined significantly, downstream polyester demand slowly increased, multiple good driving, ethylene glycol market price shocks rose. However, the downstream polyester enterprises indicated that the short selling and selling volume of the enterprises was delayed and the overall market situation was overdrawn. In addition, there is no sign of obvious improvement in terminal weaving orders. The market mentality is more cautious. After a short run, ethylene glycol will fluctuate at 4500 yuan / ton. Heard that the stock market is expected to rise after the stock market, the basic pressure will still exist, long term individuals are not optimistic.