Is The PTA Rising Or Falling After The Profit Recovery Industry Chain?

Last weekend, I thought the market would be calm. I didn't expect the Sino US trade war to continue to re ignite. This will bring a "strong wind and rain" to the trend of polyester industry chain this week.

On the other hand, the terminal market of polyester filament has not yet improved significantly. The wait-and-see mentality is mainly based on rigid demand, and production and sales data continue to be weak. This week, the trend is much more dangerous.

At present, the PX- naphtha oil price difference is maintained at the level of 300 US dollars / ton. Although the money is lost, the PTA disk processing price difference is at the level of 800 yuan / ton, in fact, PTA still has much profit margin. At the same time, The profits of filaments have also risen sharply. The profits of the whole industry chain are being redistributed.

Then, is the PTA rising or falling after the profit recovery industry chain?

Under the precondition of oversupply of PTA, PTA is liable to rise and fall if the external environment worsens. First of all, Ningbo Yisheng 650 thousand tons / year, Hua Bin Petrochemical 700 thousand tons / year, Yangzi Petrochemical 650 thousand tons / year, Liwan polyester 700 thousand tons / year PTA device has been resumed on schedule since August 19th. In addition, in September, the new PTA 2 million 200 thousand year / year device will soon be put into operation, and PTA will enter the supply surplus stage.

On the cost side, the 1 million ton / year PX plant of Hainan refining and chemical industry will be put into operation in September, and the cost side support of PTA will be further weakened. Before the good results of Sino US trade negotiations, market sentiment will only become weaker for PTA.

In the past month, the price of the polyester filament market has been more stable than that of the previous stage. At present, the average operation of polyester industry is 90.1%, rising by 1.2%. Therefore, the supply side, polyester filament is a small increase; and production and marketing, the current slightly lighter, production and marketing average concentration of about 50%; in the production and marketing downturn, polyester stocks are also increasing, of which POY stock to 7 days, FDY inventory to 10 days near, and DTY stock to 15 days.

With the arrival of the "Kim Gu" traditional peak season, the order of jet looms is slightly warmer than before. However, the new single filling situation is still showing general performance. The air-jet looms are running steadily, mainly due to the gradual loss of orders in the early stage, and the slow release of seasonal orders.

In addition, the number of enterprises with foreign trade as the main body decreased compared with the same period, mainly due to the lack of operational confidence under the influence of policy environment. From the sales point of view, the regular product library is rigorous, and the capital flow is not smooth.

August is the traditional off-season, and most of the weaving factories and traders are in the low season. Therefore, the inventory of weaving factories is rising, and traders' orders are decreasing. After the Sino US trade broke out again, according to some weaving manufacturers and traders, it has little effect in a short time.

A boss who made four rounds, T400 series and all kinds of elastic fabrics mainly said that compared with June and July, the order rebounded slightly in August. Now the machine is full and there is not much stock.

And some orders based printing and dyeing factories, the number of market orders is also increasing. The products currently sold in the market can be generally divided into two categories: market goods and elastic order fabrics. Most hot textile factories and dyeing factories are mostly processed by these two products. However, the textile factories and dyeing factories which are mainly composed of other fabrics have not experienced substantial changes in the market, and are in a steady growth stage.

In the Sino US trade war rekindled, the upstream raw material or weak adjustment this week, demand side, although the downstream water jet, warp knitting machine, circular machine start rate is still good, but the procurement department needs rigid replenishment, polyester factory polyester filament production and marketing are uneven. As the end of the month draws near, there will be a rigid demand for polyester filament this week. The price changes will depend on the raw material changes such as upstream PTA and MEG.