Field Search: The Fall Of The Property Market Oscillates Downward

In the autumn of October, the property market was gloomy.

Central Plains real estate research center data show that the National Day holiday property market as a whole is stable, and gradually appears to continue to fall phenomenon, because the net sign data lag, temporarily unable to see the market comprehensive data, but overall, the majority of cities during the national day net sign suspended.

From the typical city net sign quantity, Beijing new residential day 6 days before the national day net sign 29 sets, the second-hand housing housing net sign 35 sets, in October 7th, the second-hand housing 13 sets (October 7, 2018 7 sets), compared with 2018 has risen or falls.

During the national day, Shanghai Central Plains real estate monitoring data show that the city's second-hand housing listing 7509 sets, is the second half of last year, the lowest volume of new listing, a decrease of 21.3% over the same period last year. And from some store visits, the number of visitors has also declined significantly.

The decline in market volume is also accompanied by the decline in housing sales and land market. Many housing enterprises launched a new round of sales promotion during the national day, such as Shimao, Jinke and so on, offering the first payment installment discount, hoping to lock the source of tourists; the happiness of China adopts the down payment payment preferential activities to accelerate the return to the present; Ya Ju Le, Jin Di, Jin Mao and so on give preferential treatment to the projects in Nantong and Xuzhou; Xinli, Yuzhou, Zhong Jun, Jinhui, Rongxin, rongchuang and so on all have preferential sales promotion in Nanchang and Zhengzhou.

At this point, the two or three line city market has changed, housing enterprises in the performance of the insurance and trading positions have been launched. Looking back at the land market of hot second tier cities, downward trend is traceable. In October 10th, there were 8 plots of land sold in the main city of Nanjing. Among them, a residential block in the Southern new town was very cold. It was sold by Nanjing traffic investment real estate Co., Ltd. at 810 million of the floor price, and the floor price was 16597 yuan / square meter. Compared with the plot taken by Jinmao in July this year, the land price dropped by nearly 13 thousand yuan per square meter.

In this regard, Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, believes that from the recent market, some cities have begun to cool down. In addition to Shenzhen, most of the hot spots in the second tier cities have experienced a slight spring fever.

As a whole, the market volume of the second tier cities in September is not significantly higher than that in August, and the property market has bid farewell to Kim Gu. Stocks in cities such as Beijing, Nanjing, Shenzhen, Ningbo and Fuzhou have risen to varying degrees.

In fact, the property market has not been ten for many years. Since 2019, the price drop has spread from point to region. Hot cities are gradually descending, and purchasing power is hard to sustain the market.

Volume is not optimistic.

During the national day, the economic report reporters visited some regional markets in Shanghai in twenty-first Century. Intermediary Xiao Liu (a pseudonym) revealed that the recent buyers do not inquire much, but the seller is increasing.

This may open a gap for the clinch business. Xiao Liu has been with a customer for several years. In 2016, when the Shanghai property market was at a high level, he bought Jiading new town Yishoufang, which was decorated with 3 large apartments, and recently sold at about 5000000, accounting for about 300 thousand of all taxes and fees.

From the feedback of Shanghai Zhongyuan Real estate, the seller's listing price is still mainly based on market price, and some of the more balanced mentality will take the initiative to reduce the 1-2 points listing, so as to increase the number of showings and promote transactions. At present, the bargaining range is still maintained at around 3%-5%. Some of the better quality housing sources are quick to conclude transactions under the price concession.

In contrast, the volume and price of housing listings is relatively stable, but there are still a lot of pressure on some high priced houses, especially those with a total price of over 10 million. For example, a 140 square meter parking lot in the central area of Kerry court. About 13 million in mid September.

At a drop of 500 thousand, it is only 300 thousand higher than the total price of a low level housing sold recently.

In the new commercial housing market, due to the adjustment of the online real estate system, the data statistics during the eleven period have lagged behind. Although no data is directly reflected, Lu Wenxi, an analyst at Zhongyuan Real estate market, believes that market performance is still available. In particular, the market differentiation is still evident. This year, the Shanghai urban area is slightly better than the suburban projects.

For example, a project in Baoshan called out the house to send BMW 5 departments, in addition, the National Day holiday subscription of the designated housing source sent HUAWEI's latest mobile phone, marketing activities earn eyeballs.

Eleven, the long term turnover has shrunk, on the one hand is the Convention, many customers go out to play, the concern of the property market declined, coupled with the current market stability, buyers did not enter the market sense of urgency; on the other hand, two days before the national day bad weather, to a certain extent, also affect the housing plan, has a certain impact on the transaction. In addition, based on the sharp increase in the supply of new plates in September, the price advantage is also more obvious. The more central area is, the more obvious the phenomenon of the price inversion of the second-hand housing and the surrounding area. The diversion of customers also brings pressure to regional transactions.

Lu Wenxi pointed out that the long holiday market can show the current market mindset, and some of the projects that go bad will increase marketing efforts to complete sales targets, while the buildings without follow-up pressure will slow down. Most importantly, with the release of a large number of demand in the first half of the year, the continuation of new demand has become a hindrance to the transaction. In essence, Shanghai's regulatory policy has not changed, so market demand has been suppressed. Although the current second-hand housing transactions easily, but it will not set off a wave of market. Coupled with the general performance of second-hand housing transaction data in September, it will also frustrate confidence. It is expected that turnover will still be a downward trend in October.

Previously, due to the relaxation of the restriction and the hot port plate, it also fell into a bottleneck. Intermediary Zhang Chong (a pseudonym) revealed that many of the properties had promised customers to pay the deposit first, and the specific details could be signed online.

Yang Yulei, a senior analyst at Shanghai chain home market research department, pointed out that the impact of mortgage interest rate changes on the market was limited in October 8th. First, because of the small impact on the monthly amount, the two is that under the guidance of the current housing policy, the market is stable, and there is no significant factor causing huge fluctuations. From the cumulative sales year-on-year, maintained at 50%, downward trend "seemingly" temporarily stopped.

"Golden nine silver ten" no longer

Zhang Dawei believes that the annual concern of the property market "golden nine silver ten", because in the past 9-10 months occupied the most important proportion of the property market throughout the year, but with climate change, concrete requirements for temperature change, superimposed after 2009, the real estate regulation policy on the market cycle is far greater than the buyers' spontaneous behavior. In addition, the long holidays in October also made it difficult for a second tier city to have another obvious housing boom.

According to the data from a number of agencies, the volume of new residential housing in hot and second tier cities in 1-9 months was slightly upward because of the slight spring. 22 hot cities signed 1 million 131 thousand residential units, representing a slight increase of 2.8% over the 1 million 120 thousand set in 2018. In the first 9 months of the 22 cities, 13 cities rose year by year, of which 27 thousand of the first 9 months of Beijing contracted housing because of the increase in the supply of restricted housing, a 76% increase compared to the 15 thousand sets in the same period in 2018.

Zhang Dawei pointed out that the Spring Festival after the Spring Festival in 2019, due to the impact of subsequent policies, has gradually reduced fever in the three quarter. Coupled with the pressure of market regulation and tightening of credit, especially the concern of the new LPR interest rate calculation method in October 8th, the recent market has been watching again.

Regulation and control also led to the gradual stabilization of the property market: in the first 9 months of 2018, the real estate market was regulated 385 times. From the point of view of the intensity of regulation and control policy, the total regulation of 415 times in the first 9 months of 2019 has averaged over 2 regulation times per working day and refreshed the historical record. 2019 is the most intensive year of real estate policy. In real estate policy content, the real estate financial risk which was rarely mentioned in the past is densely mentioned in 2019. As a whole, the central ministries and commissions have issued 25 speeches or policies in 2019, calling for the prevention of real estate financial risks.

Although the prices of the cities are still rising, the market has gradually stabilized. Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Hefei and other cities with strict policies and regulations are showing signs of downward trend in housing prices. The specific performance is: hot cities begin to enter the era of endless sales, the average premium rate of land transactions in a second tier city fell to the lowest point in nearly 2 years. The bottom price has become the mainstream in the market. Insiders pointed out that the trend of the future market mainly depends on the credit quotations in various places in October 8th and the LPR pricing in October 20th.

Recently, second tier cities in a second-hand housing market transaction differentiation is obvious, housing enterprises are also actively changing positions in the process of launching a price promotion strategy. Xingye, China and Thailand and many other brokerage statistics, Xiamen fever continued, Suzhou regulation and control in May 11th, the transaction data has gradually weakened. The number of second-hand housing transactions in Xiamen increased by 40% compared with the previous week before the national day, an increase of 15% over the previous week, an increase of 42% over the same period since September and an increase of 163% from the beginning of this year.

Suzhou's week before the National Day (the same below) decreased by 11% compared with the same period last year, an increase of 13% over the same period, and a 21% year-on-year decrease since September. It has increased 32% over the same period.

Chengdu and Nanjing continue to warm up, Hangzhou has begun to strengthen recently. The number of second-hand housing transactions increased by 34% compared with the same period in Chengdu, an increase of 36% compared to the same period. Since September, it has increased by 18% year-on-year, and has increased by 36% from the beginning of this year. Nanjing increased by 129% over the same period last year, an increase of 23% over the previous year, and a 73% increase from September. Hangzhou increased by 81% year-on-year, an increase of 31% over the previous year, an increase of 36% over the same period since September and a 11% decrease from the beginning of this year.

The same policy consulting research report shows that during the national day, Nanchang, Zhengzhou, the main three or four tier cities, Nantong, Zhenjiang, Yangzhou, Xuzhou and other cities in the main second tier cities, there are larger price concessions in the housing enterprises, and the other cities are generally less preferential.

Some housing companies generally take a big price clearance strategy for strategic exit from cities or regions. For example, a head housing company was suspended by the local government for 9 months due to a sharp reduction in the price of the Guilin project.