The Winner Of The Three Quarter Debt Market Experience: Good Debt Based On Risk Prevention And Control

The 2105 bond funds established before 2019, the average yield of bond funds in the three quarter was 1.44%, of which the pure debt fund was 1.24%, the first class debt base was 1.62%, and the two class debt base was 1.99%.

"The performance of the bond fund is good this year, which is better than everyone expected before, especially the pure debt fund. After all, this year's bond market is more uncertain than last year. In October 30th, a Southern China based debt fund manager said.

"Debt based performance in the three quarter, from the median interval returns, short debt, medium and long term pure debt, two tier debt base are actually higher than the two quarter level, such as long-term debt and two debt base are 1.13% and 1.62%, significantly higher than the two quarter of 0.66% and -0.17%, but the fund's performance differentiation also increased than the two quarter." In October 31st, Xie Shoupeng, a researcher at the good buy fund research center, said.

Debt based transcript

Wind data show that in the three quarter of the bond fund returns, 157 exceeded 3%. Of these, 4 were over 10%, 54 were between 5%-10%, 34 were between 4%-5%, and 65 were between 3%-4%.

Among them, the Oriental realized the pure debt C ranked first in the 15.22% quarter of three quarter, followed by the southern yuan yuan convertible bonds, the days of the convertible bonds increased A, the days of the convertible bonds increased C, the three quarter returns were 12.56%, 10.33%, 10.11%.

In addition, the 114 quarter of the three quarter bond fund earnings were negative, accounting for about 4%.

Then, what are the investment strategies of the blue chip bond fund?

From the three quarter, the bond market is going down first. Many excellent debt foundation said in the report that the operation is relatively flexible, holding part of interest rate debt, high and middle level credit debt, and convertible bonds.

It is worth noting that in the three quarter of the gem bond fund, there are a large number of convertible bond investments.

Wind data show that in the competition of more than 2000 bond funds, 6 of the first 10 of the three quarter returns can be converted into debt funds.

In response, a bond fund manager told reporters that "the convertible bond market is very attractive this year. At the same time, the types of convertible bonds market are much richer than before. Especially this year, a lot of convertible bonds have been issued. Therefore, convertible bonds can enter into our vision and provide more investment opportunities."

Taking the first quarter of the three quarter debt based return rate as the first example, C, the fund manager Wu Pingping, pointed out in the three quarterly report that on the specific investment strategy, on the one hand, it should flexibly adjust the duration and positions, and in the case of controllable credit risk, it would choose the high and middle class credit bonds to obtain a healthy base store income and fully explore the opportunities of single brokerage over earnings. On the other hand, interest rate debt has taken the opportunity to participate in interest rate debt band opportunities, and has carried out the band operation of the convertible bonds appropriately to increase the combined income.

"In the aspect of convertible bonds, we mainly focus on the industries with good policies or fundamental improvement, select low price and low valuation targets, strictly control the positions, seek steady progress and gain profits." Wu Pingping pointed out.

Another example is the second quarter of the three quarter return of the South China dollar bonds, the net share growth rate of 10.02%, while the benchmark growth rate of 2.30% over the same period.

"In the three quarter of 2019, the southern yuan yuan convertible bond fund continued the position of stocks and convertible bonds which had been high since mid June, and actively explored the structural opportunities in the growth of science and technology, which significantly outperformed the convertible bond index." Liu Wenliang, manager of the southern yuan yuan convertible bond fund, said in the three quarterly report.

There is still room for future convertible bond investment. In the report, Liu Wenliang pointed out that "the valuation of convertible bonds in the three quarter has increased, but it has not reached the level of high price. It has continued to follow the equity market upward elasticity, and there is still room for excavating structural opportunities in the fourth quarter."

In fact, for the fourth quarter, the industry interviewed by reporters generally agreed that the next quarter debt base income or weaker than the three quarter.

"Fourth quarter, the bond market will continue to show callbacks or oscillations. The main reason is that the central bank's monetary policy is constrained by CPI, and short-term interest rates are uplink and bonds are suppressed. Under such circumstances, the bond market is still under pressure. On the whole, the debt base performance in the fourth quarter may be weaker than in the three quarter." Zhang Ting said.

"The fundamentals of the economy remain weak. At present, it does not support the debt market turning to bear. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and the debt base performance is weaker than the three quarter. " Xie Shoupeng said.

Guidelines for risk prevention

It is worth noting that there is a huge gap between the good and bad performance of bond funds in the three quarter.

In the first quarter, the highest return on bond funds in the three quarter was 15.22%%, with a minimum return of -9.55%, and the difference between the two returns was close to 25 points.

Why is there a serious division of debt in the three quarter?

Xie Shoupeng believes that the three quarter debt base differentiation factors, on the one hand, in the central bank loose expectations are lost, CPI continues to rise and China's trade dispute mitigation and many other factors, the bond market oscillation is weak, especially since mid August, since the middle of the year, the yield rate obviously upward, some debt basis failed and according to market changes to make strategic adjustment; on the other hand, the three quarter, the equity market first fell and then increased, the amplitude was more obvious, also made the two class debt base or convertible bond position debt base performance split.

Zhang Ting, a fortune research researcher, pointed out that there were two reasons for the performance division of the bond fund in the three quarter: on the one hand, some of the stocks in the two tier debt base held some positive support for the performance, while some of the first class debt holdings also held a small number of stocks, while the pure debt fund could not hold shares, and the increase was relatively small. On the other hand, the types of heavily loaded bonds were different, and the interest rate of the heavily loaded bonds was relatively low.

Take the convertible bond fund with outstanding performance in the three quarter as an example, most of the top ranked income, but also have relatively poor performance, such as Hai Fu Tong convertible bond preferred return of -3.35%.

In response, a bond fund manager told reporters: "convertible bond fund differentiation is relatively large. Investment convertible bonds are very important to the choice of coupons. There are relatively few convertible bonds before. If we want to invest in such a variety, we must bear a higher premium rate and worse liquidity. Now there are more varieties, and the circulation has also come up. There are different targets. So it's more about the view of the positive stocks, the view of the stock market and the choice of debt and stock of convertible bonds. The degree of discrimination is bigger and bigger. The effect of choosing the right varieties and the wrong varieties is far from the same.

In addition, there are many defaults this year, and even a lot of AAA debt risks.

"Objectively speaking, it is very difficult to avoid investment risk in the process of economic down." A bond fund manager admits that many of the three quarter poor debt bases are related to "risk events".

So, in the investment, risk prevention is the key. How should we avoid risk cases?

In this regard, the above debt fund managers said, to avoid risks, there must be a mechanism to prevent and control in advance, tracking things, if there is a suspected situation, how to maximize the retention of the customer's income, the greatest possible to do the whole body and retreat, even if it can not do the whole body to retire, so that the impact of a single pair of combinations is minimized, this is the whole system, before, after, and after the investment all linked together, this is not the ability of fund managers personal.

"Our company has a" white list ", which is equivalent to the credit bank, and the bonds issued by the issuing body of the Treasury can be selected by the fund manager. Each fund company or information management company has its own credit rating team, and the credit rating team is the first hurdle to avoid risks. The above debt fund managers said.