Data Analysis: The Market Trend Of Polyester Market Continues To Be Cold, And The Trend Of Market Weakening Is Weakening.

This year, the polyester market continues to be cold. The market price of the whole year shows a trend of weakening and weakening. In October, the price of polyester market has been repeatedly refreshed in the new year, and the profits of the industry are also at risk.

With the launch of new Feng Ming and the "boots" of Hengyi refining and chemical industry, how will the polyester market come into being at the end of the upstream raw materials?

Chemical fiber flagship project "boots" finally landing: new Feng Ming PTA put into operation, Hengyi Brunei petrochemical project entered commercial operation.

In October 30th, the PTA project of Zhejiang Dushan Energy Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Dushan energy"), a wholly owned subsidiary of the new Feng Ming group, was officially put into operation on an annual output of 2 million 200 thousand tons. The device consists of two production lines, each capacity of 1 million 100 thousand tons / year. Dushan energy is the first project to extend upstream to new Feng Ming, with a total investment of 7 billion yuan. The driving device is the first phase of the project. The two phase of the project was launched in September 2019 and is expected to be put into operation in the third quarter of 2020, with the capacity of 2 million 200 thousand tons / year.

The project uses simultaneous interpreting of the latest PTA process and patented equipment of BP, which reduces 95% of solid waste, 65% of greenhouse gas and 75% of wastewater discharge compared with traditional PTA technology. Compared with the industry cost, it has the advantage of 200-300 yuan / ton.

According to reports, as of October 31st, another private refining and petrochemical project has made significant progress. The Hengyi (Wen Lai) PMB petrochemical project, the coal and diesel hydrofining unit, the hydrocracking unit and the flexible coking unit, have been commissioned to produce qualified products, such as aviation kerosene, ultra-low sulfur refined diesel oil, heavy naphtha, naphtha, liquefied petroleum gas and spirit gas, and subsidiary products after commissioning, intermodal transportation and smooth operation.

So far, marks the Brunei PMB petrochemical project officially entered the stage of commercial operation.

After 2019, the polyester industry chain will face a new round of production capacity cycle. What is most concerned about the market is the impact of the new Feng Ming PTA device and Hengyi refining and chemical plant on the market. With the coming fourth quarter, the impact will become more obvious.

What will be the impact of the recent 2 million 200 thousand PTA of new Feng Ming and the Hengyi Brunei petrochemical project on the continuous turbulence of the polyester market after entering the commercial operation?

With the start-up of PTA new devices and idle devices, the expansion cycle of PTA capacity will gradually open. In 2019 Q4-2020, there will be a total of 18 million 800 thousand tons of new capacity production plans for Hengli petrochemical, Yisheng, Ningbo, Hongfeng, Honggang petrochemical and Fujian Hongbo in the year of Q4-2020. The corresponding PTA market concentration will begin to decline, and the ability of the leading enterprises to control the market will also decline. PTA processing fees will be very difficult to appear in September 2018. The pressure on the PTA supply side has led to a slump in the market. The domestic PTA market price has dropped 28.2% since July when the new plant is expected to be put into operation.

Meanwhile, private large-scale refinery projects, including Hengyi, have been put into operation one after another, which will inevitably reduce the degree of import dependence of PX, and the pricing power of PTA producers will also increase in terms of raw materials.

For PTA, PTA in 2019 is a year of supply and demand basic balance. But with the new season of 2 million 500 thousand seasons in 2019 and the commissioning of the new PTA plant of 2 million 500 thousand tons, the first half of next year, PTA will probably enter a stage of heavy storage. The PTA processing fee is bound to decline. In the middle of next year, there will still be 2 million 500 thousand tons of PTA devices to be put into operation next year. Next year, 7-8 tons of gold in Ningbo will be 3 million tons. By the end of next year, more new PTA devices will be put into production. For the PTA industry, there will surely be a situation of oversupply. What we can foresee is the huge compression of processing fees and the increase in the difficulty of inventory management.

All in all, there will be a large number of new expansion plans for the whole polyester industry chain in the future. The main worry for the supply side is that the new capacity will lead to reshuffle, and the industry will return to the low profit stage of the arms race and slaughter.

As for the current market, the PTA market is playing a game in the near future. The centralized maintenance of several sets of equipment makes the spot supply missing, and some factories still have maintenance plans, so the inventory pattern is maintained or maintained. As the new device is expected to run out, the PTA market is more stable in the short term, the external market trade is good, the cost and maintenance devices support, the downstream polyester load is still at a high level, and the demand is stable. However, the terminal grey fabric inventory is still showing significant pressure, and the PTA spot circulation is more smooth. The contradiction between supply and demand is not outstanding, and the price of PTA will continue to maintain weak shocks.