FDY Into A Loss Quagmire, The Market Outlook Or Expected Upstream And Downstream Business Rebound

New Feng Ming Dushan 2 million 200 thousand tons of PTA plant officially put into production, Hengyi petrochemical in Brunei refinery project commissioning success. Recently, upstream polyester raw materials market moves frequently, and as an important part of the downstream market - polyester filament, the market performance is quite dull.

Price: weak adjustment

Profit: squeeze shrink

Production and marketing: it is difficult to improve.

Inventory: high in the year

...

First, prices fell to low levels during the year.

Talking about the price of various products in the polyester filament market, "low position in the year" has become its pronoun again.

Over the past month or so, the polyester filament market is mostly vulnerable to adjustment, and the quotations of mainstream products have been dropping continuously, and the new lows in the new year are set again.

By the beginning of November, the average price of FDY 150D of the mainstream manufacturers dropped to 7250 yuan / ton, and the average price of POY 150D in the mainstream market went down to 695 yuan / ton, while the average price of DTY 150D dropped to 8700 yuan / ton, all the lowest price since this year. 

Two, FDY took the lead in a loss mire.

Polyester factory is the most sentimental scene, that is, "loss" once again enveloped the polyester market!

Since the recent stage, the profit margins of polyester factories have shrunk very seriously, especially FDY, and some products have been plunged into a loss mire, while POY and DTY can only maintain a small profit.

Also as early as the beginning of November, FDY 150D obviously fell into a loss predicament, with a deficit of around 30 yuan / ton, and the rest of the products also had different levels of deficit. The POY150D profit shrank to 70 yuan / ton, which was very obvious in the year to year profit. Besides, the profit margin of DTY 150D also dropped to 120 yuan / ton.

Three, over 4 hundred production and sales during the month.

What we have to mention here is that the mainstream production and marketing of polyester is "plain as water".

From October to now, nearly a month or so, polyester mainstream production and marketing over 100 quotations, only a handful of times, only 4 times. It is reported that recently, the mainstream production and marketing of polyester market can only be maintained at around 6-8 per cent; this is not only a big gap compared to September, but the gap is even more obvious.

Four, stocks close to the annual high.

Affected by the downturn in production and marketing, the mainstream stock of polyester is approaching the "high level in the year" again.

Since the beginning of this year, high storage has been around polyester factories, and the inventory that has not been easy to fall back is high again. From the statistics of China's silk net, the overall stock market of polyester market has increased to 16-25 days. In terms of specific products, POY stocks are up to 7-11 days, FDY stocks are close to 14-19 days, while DTY stocks are about 22-27 days.

In the final analysis, apart from the difficulty of upgrading raw material surface support, the downstream market demand is "no force" is the crux of the problem.

First, the atmosphere in the domestic market is weakening.

In fact, since the beginning of this year, the performance of the textile market as a whole has been mostly warm and not big. Despite the sudden rise in the domestic market market during the middle and late 10 months, it once brought sales hotspots, but after all, it was only a phase of explosive development. The market as a whole is still dominated by "small batch and multiple batches". It is understood that most textile companies believe that the recent market turnaround, thanks to the "double eleven" business quarter orders, as well as part of next spring and summer orders boosted, but the overall demand for the domestic market is still weak, it is difficult to have substantial changes. And the price war brought by peripheral capacity has also weakened the smell of the peak season to a certain extent.

Two, foreign trade market orders fell by nearly 20%

We know that the trade relations between China and the United States have had a certain impact on the textile market since last year. Although the recent Sino US trade has been good news, it seems that the booster power of the market order is not large. Judging from the recent market, due to the overall downturn in the foreign trade market, the total volume of orders for most textile factories has dropped by nearly 20%-40%, and there is a shortage of large orders, mostly small ones. According to the past two years, foreign trade orders have basically been shipped in a period of time, and some products have to be delivered for about 20-30 days. But this year, foreign trade orders have basically been shortened to 5-7 days.

"Gold nine silver ten" has just ended, and for the textile market in November and December, most textile market people expressed anxiety. Whether the market can pick up in the future market can only be expected to support upstream raw materials and boost downstream demand.