"Cross Border King" Throws 8 Billion 900 Million New Plans Again: Concord'S 6 Year Dispute Settles And Seeks "Pig Raising"?

Jing Ji 100, one of the landmarks of Shenzhen, is 441.8 meters high, with 100 floors. The developer is 000048.SZ, a listed holding company in Shenzhen.

In early 2019, Condall just moved his headquarters to Jing Ji 100, and the real estate development projects of listed companies also accounted for 52% of their business revenue.

It is such a company that is addicted to real estate business. Now it begins to rush to the aquaculture industry.

In November 13th, Condall and Meizhou agricultural and rural Bureau of Guangdong Province signed the "investment framework agreement for the 600 thousand pig industry chain project of Meizhou city in Meizhou," and the project plan was invested in two phases, totaling about 1 billion 500 million yuan.

According to the twenty-first Century economic report, this is only a small part of the company's investment in aquaculture this year.

Since late August, Condall has signed a number of cooperation agreements, and plans to build several pig breeding bases in Gaozhou and Maoming, with a total investment of up to 8 billion 900 million yuan. This has an important background, that is, the contention of contention for 6 years around Kant has come to a close, and Chen Hua, the head of Beijing based group, has officially entered the listed company.

Judging from the current situation, his direction for the company may be aquaculture.

Final destination?

Condall, formerly known as the Shenzhen chicken raising company and the senior secretary of Shenzhen listed company, had already landed at the Shenzhen Stock Exchange as early as 1994.

The listing time is long and the story is indispensable, which makes the layout of the company's business at present very complicated.

Taking the 2019 China Daily as an example, the company's 1 billion 172 million yuan income came from 14 different businesses, including full price feed, real estate development, tap water, taxi passenger transport, housing leasing, property management and so on.

Although Condall also has poultry and pig business, the scale of income is very small.

According to the earnings data, in the first half of the year, the revenue from the pig industry was only 25 million 900 thousand yuan, accounting for only 2.2% of the current revenue. But the feed business is more scale and the proportion of income is 36.7%.

It may be seen that the synergy of feed business and the existing breeding base, or the high degree of vitality of the current pig industry, Condall began to pound heavily into the aquaculture industry.

In August 21st, Condall signed the framework agreement with the people's Government of Gaozhou city of Guangdong province and the people's Government of Xuwen county respectively.

The company plans to build a 1 million year pig industry chain project in Gaozhou, with a total investment of about 3 billion yuan, the first phase is 1 billion 200 million yuan, and the second phase is 1 billion 800 million yuan. At the same time, in Xuwen County, the annual output of 1 million pigs is also built, and the total investment is 3 billion yuan.

In October 30th and November 13th, Condall signed a framework agreement with the people's Government of Maoming City, Meizhou agricultural and rural Bureau, respectively, to build an annual production of 500 thousand and 600 thousand pig industry chain projects, with a total investment of 1 billion 400 million yuan and 1 billion 500 million yuan. Up to now, the total investment has reached 8 billion 900 million yuan, and the total annual output of hog has reached 3 million 100 thousand.

What is the concept of "3 million 100 thousand heads"? Although it can not compare with the 10 million shares of 002714.SZ in the year, it is at least equivalent to the volume of new hope (000876.SZ). The latter only has 2 million 750 thousand posts in the first 10 months of this year, and it is estimated that the total annual turnover will be around 3 million 500 thousand.

According to the market price, the value of the 3 million 100 thousand products is even more alarming.

In October this year, for example, the average selling price of live pigs sold by 300498.SZ was 36.19 yuan / kg, while the stock price and the new hope were 33.5 yuan / kg and 33.98 yuan / kg respectively.

Even if the lowest new hope price is chosen, and the lower 110 kilograms weight of the industry is calculated, the value of the single head pig is 3685 yuan, and the total value of the 3 million 100 thousand head has reached 11 billion 400 million yuan.

According to the twenty-first Century economic report, access to public data found that in the 25 years of Condall's listing, the highest income in 2018 was still less than 3 billion 400 million yuan, which is due to the increase in the current real estate business income from 300 million yuan to 1 billion 800 million yuan.

Money effect conjecture

When interviewed by the industry, frankly speaking, it is a little late to smash money to repair pig farms, and companies with keen sense of smell have long started.

Public information shows that Liu Yonghang and his east hopes that in January and March this year, there were news of 1 million pig production projects in Ji'nan Pingyin county and Nanzhao County in January.

The key to deciding whether Condall can make money this time mainly lies in the time of release.

Judging from the characteristics of the industry, Condall's pig farm construction and capacity release can not be completed in a short time. These people believe that the price of pigs can not rise all the time, and when the supply and demand relations begin to strike a balance, that is the turning point of price fall.

"Generally speaking, the construction period of a high specification pig farm takes 6 months, and the feeding time of piglets to pigs is 6 months. If you choose to breed yourself, it will take 1 to 1 and a half years to breed sows and two yuan sows. " Zhuo Chuang information pig industry analyst Zhang Lili 14 introduced.

From this point of view, even though Condall chose to build pig farms and raise piglets himself, the fastest time for pigs to be slaughtered was by the end of 2020.

From the details of the projects disclosed by the listed companies, they are all "self propagating", and the actual slaughter nodes may have to wait until mid 2021.

The potential risks faced by 3 million 100 thousand pigs are equally important.

The first is the origin of sows. "If the sow is not sold, the market price of the two yuan reserve sow is about 5000 yuan per head, which can be bought, but the supply is not enough." Zhang Lili said.

Next is epidemic risk. Although there has been some stability in the second half of the year, there are still repeated cases in some areas.

According to the website of Ministry of agriculture and rural * *, November 13th, there was an outbreak of African swine plague in Tengchong, Yunnan Province, and an outbreak of African swine plague occurred in a farming town in Tengchong. At the time of the outbreak, 261 pigs were born in the livestock farm, 177 were ill and 97 died.

However, it is also judged by the insiders that by the end of 2020, when the pig began to slaughter, the price of live pigs would not be reduced even if the prices of pigs had dropped.

"Capacity can not recover within a short period of time, but the current high price is also difficult to sustain. It is estimated that the price of live pigs may drop to around 30 yuan / kg in the second half of next year, and the space for downward adjustment is relatively limited." Zhang Lili said.

According to this trend, the gross profit rate of pig breeding industry still can reach about 50%, and the higher price provides sufficient "safety cushion" for Condall's late farming enterprises.

It's not difficult to earn money to raise pigs, but it's best to hurry up.