Famous Sellers Blow The Bull Market Horn A Stock Market At The End Of The Year How To Deduce?

At the end of the year, it is time for various institutions to invest in the strategy of next year.

In November 19th, CITIC Securities pointed out in the 2020 A share investment strategy report that in 2020, under the environment of macroeconomic victory, capital market reform and corporate earnings recovery, A shares will usher in 2-3 years of "well-off cattle".

In November 18th, Haitong Securities also released the A share investment strategy in 2020. "Bull market is on the way." Haitong Securities chief strategist Xun Yugen pointed out.

As 2019 draws to a close, the seller will blow the bull horn and the market will respond to it. The answer is worth looking forward to.

Judging from the market performance in November 19th, the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.85%, the SME board index rose 2.01%, and the growth enterprise board index increased by 2.77%.

"In November 18th, the central bank restarted and launched a 180 billion yuan 7 day reverse repurchase operation, which lowered the operating rate by 5 basis points to 2.5%, bringing the CPI pressure on the recent rise in pork brought about by the rise of the central bank's monetary easing policy. It brought a good rain to the central bank's monetary easing policy. OMO lowered interest rates, releasing the background of the current real economic difficulties and the higher actual financing interest rate. The central bank's monetary policy still insisted on the main tone of moderate easing, which gave the market a respite in the recent market because of the decline in valuation, and at the same time stabilized market confidence and sentiment. Southern China, a large public fund investment director told the twenty-first Century economic news reporter.

At the end of the year, it is time for various institutions to invest in the strategy of next year. - Song Wenhui diagram

Seller's bull market theory

In the view of CITIC Securities, there are three points in the characteristics of "well off cattle": first, the market is driven by more fundamentals than by valuations; the two is the reform of capital market, the foundation of institutional improvement and the continuous improvement of investor structure; and the three is the improvement of macro leverage, financial risk and capacity.

The main analysis basis came from the steady growth of profit growth after the bottom up, the steady growth in the two quarter, the loosening of liquidity both inside and outside the whole year, and the relatively weak external disturbance of overseas factors.

Haitong Securities analysis pointed out that in 2019 and 2005 are similar, are in the liquidity improvement and profitability of the two bottom stage, are all bear to cattle macro background.

For the seller's bull market view, the analysis of the rights and interests of a medium-sized public fund company believes that it is not easy to say whether the upward movement of the market is driven by the fundamentals, but the market participants' structure and internationalization trend is obvious. The whole investment style will become more healthy and stable, and the value investment style is clearer. In addition, the state also hopes to achieve the goal of reducing leverage through a healthy capital market. At present, the trend is good.

"In 2020, China's economy will still recover weakly. This weak recovery is not necessarily GDP growth will go up a lot, but many industrial chains with relatively long industrial chains, including cars, will perform well, which is a relatively good economic state. The corresponding recovery from weak recovery should be a narrow fluctuation in the equity market." Luo Shuai, manager of Southern preferred growth fund, told the twenty-first Century business reporter.

In fact, according to the twenty-first Century economic report reporter, there are quite a few institutions that have a wave view.

Huang Yanming, director of Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute, also pointed out in the November 19th forum that the overall market index in the next 6 months is a sideways market. There is no big bull market and no big bear market. At the same time, the first quarter of next year, A shares in the 3000-3300 point of the interval, is a sideways shock, step by step uplift process.

"The 3000 point is a resistance level, but I think it is also a layer of window paper, which is waiting for the stabilization and recovery of the economy, including the final conclusion of the trade dispute." Luo Shuai pointed out that "3000 points as a starting point, in 2020 if you look at the card index, the next space is relatively small, the upper space of personal prediction between 3000-3300 points."

"Looking ahead in the short-term market, price gradually digs the pessimistic expectations brought about by the poor economy, and the risk of market decline decreases, and the improvement of liquidity expectations will make the recent market improve from neutral margins." The chief investment officer pointed out.

Industry differentiation is obvious

Leaving aside the change in the market as a whole, the market style is still characterized by structural differentiation.

According to 2020 analysis, Tianfeng Securities said that foreign investment, public offerings, financial products and so on will still be the leading incremental capital next year, or that the current market style is hard to reverse in the short term. The "bull market" of some companies is likely to continue, but not limited to consumer stocks. Under the trend of increasing the risk assets, the attention will be raised for undervalued and high score red targets.

"We are also bullish on the long-term view of the next year, but in the short term, the increase is a bit big, there will be a concussion, and the differentiation of the industry will continue." A public security fund broker told the twenty-first Century business reporter.

This differentiation can also be seen from the response of many fund companies in one or two. Technology and consumption are still high frequency words mentioned.

"We are optimistic about technology and consumption in the long run. On the other hand, the cyclical stocks are at the bottom, and there should be opportunities for rebounding." A large public fund manager in Beijing said.

"Stagflation is still the main concern of the market, and the recent differentiation of industries continues to become obvious. Consumption and technology continue to benefit from stagflation and investment logic in the stage of transformation and upgrading of economic structure." According to the bank's AXA fund.

At the same time, we have pointed out that foreign investment is also one of the most important marginal variables in the short term. At the end of the month, the largest single expansion of MSCI will come into force. It is estimated that this expansion will bring about an incremental capital of US $34 billion 900 million for the A share market. The impact of incremental funds on the central share market is greater than that of the large cap stocks. From the perspective of the industry distribution, it is expected that the scale of the incremental capital flowing into the financial, pharmaceutical, food and beverage, electronic and other sectors will occupy the top.

It is worth noting that, from the data of the three quarterly report this year, many listed companies in the science and technology sector have entered the forefront of the number of shares raised by public funds, such as Alex Hua Tian technology, GoerTek shares, LIAN electronics and so on, while consumer leading Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye and so on are still ranked in the highest position of the total market capitalization of public offering funds.

"In the short term, the market is still in a state of turbulence, and a balanced market provides abundant trading and structural opportunities for investment." Fund managers pointed out that "in the short term will pay attention to small banks, real estate and other undervalued sectors since the beginning of the year, while the middle term will still include food, beverage, electronics, medicine and other sectors."

"At present, the A share is at the critical time of the transformation of Xiong Niu, and transformation is the most important background of the future equity market. The new economy is the most important direction of the A share market in the future. From the perspective of demand, the driving force for future growth will be more dependent on domestic demand. Consumption, manufacturing services and new infrastructure must be taken seriously. From the supply side, the reform of the traditional cycle industry will come to an end, and the emerging strategic industries will become the focus of policy support. " Director of investment fund of a medium-sized public fund in Beijing