Pig Price "Inflection Point" Came: In November, Pork Price Fell By More Than 13%, Leading The Growth Trend Or Ending.

At least, it can be regarded as a turning point. When the data are released next month, the average selling price of live pigs will be narrowed or even narrowed down by 002714.SZ.

According to data provided by November 19th, the price of three yuan pig slaughtered at home and abroad dropped continuously, and the price was 38.44 yuan / kg in November 1st. It dropped to 33.42 yuan / kg on the 19 day, or 13.06%.

Comparing the data from other third party industry research institutions, we can see that there are some differences in the statistical results of each research institute because of the differences in the weight of data collection samples. However, the fall in pig prices has become a reality.

"The price in October 31st is 39.28 yuan per kilogram, and the price for 19 days is 34.67 yuan." Li Wenxu, an analyst with the business and pig industry, said on 19 April that it was mainly affected by the increase in market supply and relatively stable demand in November. Meanwhile, the price of terminal pork remained high, which also had a significant inhibitory effect on demand.

Twenty-first Century economic report reporter learned that the high pullback price of the current round of live pig prices began in Northeast and North China, and then began to transmit to East China and Southern China. The last time Southern China fell back last week, which will directly affect the fourth quarter performance of various aquaculture listed companies.

"Cost-effective" reduction, big pig market

In November, 1 Japan Daily reported that in October 31st and November 1st, pigs in the northeast area had been reduced by 4 yuan to 5 yuan / kg, and Hebei, Tianjin and other places had dropped to varying degrees, and the trend could be transmitted to the south.

At that time, Chuang Chuang's information attributed it to the fact that terminal consumption was difficult to accept high prices, the early stage hurdles were reluctant to sell, the pig source began to slaughter, and the northern region had a relatively low decline in livestock stocks.

And some of the pigs that had been concentrated in the market came from the pigs that had increased their weight in the early stage. When the relevant listed companies explained the decline in sales volume in September, the answer to "raising single head weight" and "raising pigs" has been given.

It takes about 40 days to increase the weight of commercial pigs from 110 kilograms to 150 kilograms. At the end of October, "big pigs" began to concentrate.

"From the perspective of market supply, the number of pigs increased significantly in November. This is because it consumes more feed and slows down the fattening rate, which is worth the price rise stage before. Once the price has dropped, the cost performance of raising pigs will be lower. By contrast, farmers, including farmers, are more likely to choose small pigs with less meat and faster meat. Li Wenxu said.

After a short period of increase in supply, the demand side did not change significantly. The price of live pigs in the northeast and North China took the lead and gradually spread to the national market.

On the other hand, the excessive price of live pigs and terminal pork also has an obvious inhibitory effect on demand.

"Pork sold to 25 to 30 yuan per catty, part of the terminal demand began to transfer to beef, chicken and other substitutes." Li Wenxu said.

The reason is also easy to understand that there is a reasonable price difference between the two beef and pork. When the price of pork breaks a critical point, the substitution demand of other meat and other beef will rise sharply, thus forming a negative feedback on the rise of pig prices.

The market has always been buying up but not buying. After the price of live pigs began to fall in the north, the group with a wait-and-see attitude began to join the shipping team.

Jiang Menghan, an agricultural product analyst at Sichuan Agricultural Research Group, said on 19 February that after the high price of live pigs this month, some slaughtering enterprises also appeared to concentrate on selling frozen meat, which further increased the market supply.

According to the above two, the price of live pigs will continue to fall in the short term.

"At present, there is no obvious demand to stimulate demand, hog will continue the downward trend of inertia, and there will probably be no significant change in the 4 quarter." Jiang Menghan said.

Li Wenxu pointed out that in the short term, the market is still in the selling stage, and the bearish expectations are already formed. "Only a sharp drop in space is limited. After all, the cost of piglets has reached 2000 yuan, plus the cost of labor, material and money. The price of live pigs may be maintained at around 30 yuan per kilogram."

Profits continue to grow or end in months.

The price of live pigs is down, and the people are happy to see it, but it announces the coming of the turning point of the profit of related farming enterprises.

Starting from June this year, pig breeding enterprises began to break even point, followed by hog prices continued to rise, the profitability of listed companies increased month by month, and has continued to the end of October.

According to the data statistics provided by Bai Chun, in August, September and October, the average price of three yuan pig slaughtered outside the country was 21.93 yuan, 26.78 yuan and 33.87 yuan per kilogram respectively.

This price trend is consistent with the average selling price disclosed by the relevant listed companies. Meanwhile, the average selling price of Mu yuan shares is 20.27 yuan, 26.17 yuan and 33.5 yuan respectively.

In November 19th, the economic report reporters in twenty-first Century, respectively, sought the latest sale average price from three pig breeding listed companies, but they failed to give a clear price. The specific figures still need to wait for the November sales data announcement announced at the beginning of next month.

However, one of the listed companies replied, "the selling price of the company will be adjusted according to the market price."

According to the above standards, the average price of the columns dropped to 36.42 yuan per kilogram from the beginning of November to the 19 day, although it was higher than the 33.87 yuan in October. However, the growth rate of the ring was narrower than that in September and October this year.

It needs to be pointed out that this year's pig industry's overall business trend is mostly a loss in the first quarter, flat in the two quarter and making profits in the three quarter. Therefore, it is particularly important for the fourth quarter profits to continue to improve.

From the current situation, assuming that the remaining 40 days of the fourth quarter, there will not be a sharp fall in pig prices. The profit margins of listed companies such as herding stock will continue to grow at a year-on-year ratio.

Of course, the above conclusion is only predicted by industry fundamentals, and the annual performance of listed companies also includes other incidental factors.

"Listed companies have large scale of culture and strong ability to control and control, so the possibility of making special accounting at the financial level is less likely to have a significant impact on the current performance." Yang Peiwen, director of private equity and government assets, said 19.

Taking animal husbandry shares as an example, he can recover sows to 900 thousand at the end of 9, and is expected to rise to 1 million 300 thousand by the end of the year. This will play a strong support for the growth of pig production from 2020 to 2021. "If scale enterprises can effectively use capital, expand production capacity and further enhance the concentration of industries, there will still be much room for improvement in the future."

However, until next year or a certain node in the future, the domestic pig farm volume and slaughter volume rebounded significantly, the price inflection point of pig will be established, falling below 30 yuan / kg, or even 20 yuan / kg, or not difficult.