Will The Cotton Price Stop And Rebound After The Purchase And Storage Is About To Start? Sticky Short Cut Negative, Steady Or Try To Break Ten Thousand?

Market brief

　　鄭棉震蕩小幅上漲，空頭減倉明顯，鄭棉止跌，短期仍維持區間震蕩行情，現貨棉價弱穩整理，缺乏利好消息指引，棉花成交量增加有限，市場觀望氣氛較明顯，目前內地棉企謹慎收購籽棉，皮棉售價維穩，新疆北疆籽棉收購基本結束，大部分軋花廠點價銷售倉單，但部分企業銷售壓力仍較大，南疆手采棉市場則維持混亂，近期籽棉品質下滑拖累交售價格走低，而棉企庫存普遍較大，軋花廠積極出售低品級皮棉，但下游紗廠意向采購中高等級棉花，總體成交氛圍不活躍，供應寬松，需求弱勢，棉價承壓繼續偏弱運行，據了解，部分下游企業元旦前后有補庫計劃，加上下周一(12月2日)國儲收儲即將啟動，棉價存一定支撐，預計短期棉價波動空間有限。

The price of acrylonitrile is fluctuating, and the price of the factory continues downward. The settlement price of the main factory is basically 10300 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the middlemen are holding a limited amount, and the sales contract is mainly for sale. The spot price mentality is strong, even low price is reluctant to sell. However, the spot market transaction is limited. The market outlook is still not optimistic. The market outlook of Anqing's petrochemical industry is still not optimistic. The market of acrylic fiber is not very dynamic. Near the end of the month, there is no new guidelines for the factory, the market price is stable and the main demand is stable. The demand for the terminal is generally limited, and the optimistic mood of the downstream cotton mills is limited. The price of raw acrylic fiber is kept short and the mindset is continuous.

According to customs statistics, in October 2019, China's cotton imports 70 thousand tons, a decrease of 12.5%, a decrease of 36.4% compared with the same period last year; in 2019 1-10, China imported 1 million 580 thousand tons of cotton, an increase of 28% over the same period last year. In October 2019, China imported 150 thousand tons of cotton yarn, a flat ratio, an increase of 7% over the same period last year. In 2019 1-10, China imported 1 million 630 thousand tons of cotton yarn, a decrease of 6.9% compared with the same period last year. China exported 25 thousand and 700 tons of cotton yarn in October 2019, a decrease of 8.5% over the same period last year. In 2019 1-10, China's cotton yarn exports totaled 318 thousand and 400 tons, down 7.3% from the same period last year.

According to the data released by China's cotton notarization inspection network, as at 24 o'clock in November 21, 2019, 886 cotton processing enterprises in the whole year of 2019 cotton processed cotton according to the requirements of the cotton quality inspection system reform plan, and carried out notarization inspection. The inspection volume reached 10600835 packages and 2 million 394 thousand and 369 tons. Among them: Xinjiang: 780 processing enterprises, notarization inspection of 10362660 packages, 2 million 340 thousand and 859 tons. Mainland: 106 processing enterprises, notarization inspection of 238173 packages, 53 thousand and 510 tons.

In November 22nd, the academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences in 2019 attracted the attention of the academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the results of the Chinese Academy of Engineering in 2019. The two new academicians in the field of textiles, Zhu Meifang, director of the school of materials science and engineering of Donghua University and director of the National Key Laboratory of fiber material modification, were elected academicians of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Chen Wenxing, President of Zhejiang Sci-Tech University, was elected academician of the Chinese Academy of engineering.

On the 22~23 day of November, the Thirteenth National Forum on textile and apparel standards and quality management was held in Humen. The forum has made innovations in content and form, inviting relevant departments of the state, authoritative standards bodies at home and abroad, domestic and foreign brands and experts and scholars to share the creativity and responsibilities. At the same time, they have set up two parallel branches of "risk management and control of clothing supply chain" and "new standards, new technologies and new trends", providing participants with more comprehensive information and more discussion and participation opportunities, and promoting more effective and effective communication. At the awards ceremony held in the evening, the organizers held a grand award ceremony for 48 enterprises that won the 2019 quality management innovation award. Among them, 22 garment enterprises such as YOUNGOR clothing manufacturing Co., Ltd. were awarded the "2019 annual textile quality management innovation award", and 26 raw materials and accessories enterprises such as Shandong Wei Qiao special printing and dyeing Co., Ltd. were awarded the "2019 textile quality management innovation award".

In November 23rd, BASF (Guangdong) integrated base project was officially launched in Donghai Island Petrochemical Industrial Park of Zhanjiang economic and Technological Development Zone, and the first batch of plants was started. This is the first wholly foreign-owned large petrochemical project to be launched after the promulgation of China's foreign investment law. The BASF (Guangdong) integrated base project with a total investment of US $10 billion is an important achievement of the joint signing of the German and Chinese Premier and the largest overseas investment project to date by BASF group. According to the plan, the upstream and downstream production facilities of the base from basic chemicals to consumer goods will form an integrated value chain, providing support for growth industries such as consumer goods and transportation. The first set of bases will be put into operation in 2022 to produce engineering plastics and thermoplastic polyurethanes to meet the needs of customers in many growth industries in Southern China and the whole Asian market. The whole integrated base is expected to be completed in 2030.

In November 15th, the group held a groundbreaking ceremony in Thailand, and the world's largest fiber factory was officially launched. The project was approved in June 2019. In August 2019, Lan Jing Group signed the project procurement management contract with Wood group. After the foundation ceremony, the construction of a new manufacturing plant at Srimahapoj Tatoom 304 Industrial Park in Ba Zhen government was officially launched. The new plant will produce 100 thousand tons per year and will become the world's largest Lesel fiber factory after completion. Lan Jing will be able to meet the strong market demand of Lesel fiber. At the same time, the leading position of Lan Jing in the special fiber market will be consolidated. The investment in the first production line is 400 million euros, and the construction and operation of three production lines can be increased at most. The first production line is of great importance to Lan Jing, and is the first step to produce the imported fiber in Asia. Asia is the largest market for specialty fibers, with the largest customers concentrated here, with great potential for growth. The new plant is scheduled to be completed in the third quarter of 2021 and officially put into operation in the fourth quarter of the same year.

A few days ago, the application of PTA option on the Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange has been approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. The PTA option contract will be officially launched in December 16th. PTA option will become the first batch of energy chemical options in China with methanol option. From the perspective of the futures chain of the whole textile industry chain, PTA will have a series of combination tools such as cotton futures, cotton options, cotton yarn futures, PTA futures and PTA options. In the future, if the polyester bottle and polyester staple futures can be successfully launched, the broader financial instruments of the textile industry chain will play a stronger "plate effect".

According to the latest report of the American agricultural counsellor, India cotton planting area in 2019/20 is 13 million hectares, 100 thousand hectares more than the USDA's projections. According to the agricultural Counsellor's report, cotton production in India was 29 million 700 thousand bales in 2019/20, less than 800 thousand packages predicted by USDA. India's cotton consumption is 24 million 600 thousand packs, 150 thousand less than USDA forecast. Because of the instability of cotton prices, India textile mills continue to maintain low inventories, which will continue throughout the year. According to the report, India's cotton exports amounted to 4 million packs in 2019/20, consistent with USDA's forecast. At present, the price of India ginning factory is consistent with that of the Klock A index, which is more competitive in the international market, but export demand is still weak. India's cotton imports are estimated to be 1 million 300 thousand packs, 300 thousand less than USDA forecasts, mainly cotton and West African cotton. As of October 16, 2019, India's cotton market reached 616 thousand packages.