The Next 15 Years Of New Energy Vehicles: By 2025, New Car Sales Will Account For About 25%.

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In December 3rd, the Ministry of industry and Commerce issued the "new energy automotive industry development plan (2021-2035 years)" (Draft). The paper describes the development trend, overall deployment, strategic planning and other contents of the next phase of China's new energy vehicle.

The draft pointed out that after fifteen years of continuous efforts, the core technology of our new energy vehicle has reached the international leading level. By 2025, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 25%. The draft is not only clear about the mainstream position of pure electric vehicles, but also affirms the two major technical directions of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, including fuel cell vehicles and fuel cell vehicles.

It is worth mentioning that, in addition to the target of new energy vehicle sales, the draft also suggested that by 2025, the proportion of new vehicle sales of intelligent network will reach 30%. This means that electrification, intelligence and networking are the trends and trends in the development of the automobile industry, and have become a consensus to a large extent.

This is the first public consultation on the latest industrial plan of China's new energy vehicle. In 2012, the "energy saving and new energy vehicle industry development plan (2012-2020 years)" was promulgated and implemented. Planning and follow-up policies formulated around the plan provide important support for the development of new energy vehicles in China.

Twenty-first Century economic report reporter learned that, as the top-level design document of the industry, in early February this year, the new plan has been started, and a lot of modifications have been made. Prior to mid October, there was a version of the draft, which was mainly for seeking advice from local governments, and this is for further consultation with industry and enterprises.

At present, China's new energy vehicle industry has entered a new development cycle. Production and sales volume and quantity have been ranked first in the world for four consecutive years. But with the gradual decline of subsidies, new energy vehicles need to change their development momentum.

Affected by the release of the draft, in December 3rd, when the overall volume of market volume was sluggish, the auto sector took a strong lead. The shares of Wei Di, Su o, Quan Feng and Wantong intelligent control increased by over 5%.

More optimistic about the prospects of new energy vehicles

Compared with previous industrial planning, the focus of industrial planning in the past 2021-2035 years has changed significantly and is more inclusive in industrial development.

Twenty-first Century economic report combing reporters found that in terms of development goals, the 2012-2020 year plan emphasizes the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles at the stage node (the production capacity of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in 2020 reached 2 million vehicles, and the cumulative sales volume exceeds 5 million vehicles), while the new plan emphasizes the proportion of new vehicle sales.

It is worth mentioning that the draft reflects a more promising outlook for new energy vehicles. According to the draft, new energy vehicle sales accounted for about 25% in 2025, while in October, the target for 2025 accounted for 20%.

In addition, the 2012-2020 year plan has also made detailed plans for the performance of new energy vehicles and their main components, including the maximum speed, the driving mileage of the combined working conditions under the pure electric drive mode, and the specific energy of the power battery modules.

A new energy vehicle manufacturer insider told reporters that when the planning was made, China's new energy vehicle industry just started. The overall idea is to plan, guide and popularize the application. Therefore, some specific parameters have been put forward. However, with the development of the industry, the tasks of the new stage are no longer the same. Over the past few years, there has been a "bad" phenomenon caused by one-sided pursuit of indicators.

"Some things are worth reflecting." The above sources told reporters that a previous version of the draft also had specific target values for the monomer energy density of the battery, but the index was deleted after industry feedback. In the past two years, pure electric vehicles have frequent spontaneous combustion accidents, which is partly related to the high pursuit of battery energy density and mileage.

However, the draft also mentioned a detailed index, that is, the average power consumption of new energy vehicles, requiring that the average electricity consumption of new cars will be reduced to 12 kwh / 100 km by 2025. This reflects the requirement of planning for energy consumption.

This index has attracted the attention of the industry. There are car companies that energy consumption as the core indicator of the development of new energy automotive industry is not appropriate. On the one hand, electric energy as a renewable resource is not suitable for simple analogy with fuel consumption. On the other hand, the goal of setting electricity consumption may restrict the development of intelligent networking. After all, with the promotion of intelligence, the consumption of intelligent components can not be underestimated.

In addition, in the development of technology path, the latest industrial planning has also made significant adjustments, focusing on the promotion of pure electric and plug-in vehicles from the original development to a multi technology path, including hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.

However, it needs to be pointed out that the status of pure electric vehicles is still important in the medium and short term. In the vision of development, there is such a wording: striving for the mainstream of pure electric vehicles after fifteen years of continuous efforts.

Pay attention to ecological construction

After years of efforts, China's new energy vehicle industry has significantly improved its technological level, improved its industrial system, and has been ranked first in the world for four consecutive years. However, under the influence of the overall car market downturn, subsidies and other factors, new energy vehicles will inevitably be affected.

China Automotive Industry Association data show that as of October this year, new energy vehicles have been declining for four consecutive months, and the rate of decline is expanding. China Automobile Association believes that according to the current development trend, this year's new energy vehicle sales may have negative growth.

This is a real problem. On the whole, the cost of new energy vehicles has not yet reached the level of traditional fuel vehicles. When the subsidy goes back to the slope, it faces the cruelty of development momentum.

In the latest industrial planning of this release, there is no word of financial subsidy in the relevant contents of the sound policies and regulations system. It only refers to the "preferential tax policies for improving the purchase tax of new energy vehicles", "optimizing the classification of traffic management and financial, insurance and other supporting measures", and "breaking local protection and establishing a unified and open and fair market system".

The draft also supports the development of new energy vehicle industry in local areas and specific subjects. For example, encourage local governments to increase vehicle operation support in areas such as public services and sharing trips, and give preferential policies for the access and use of new energy vehicles. It also requires that new energy vehicles will be used in new or renewable vehicles in the public areas of the national ecological civilization test area and key areas of air pollution prevention and control since 2021. At the same time, specific measures to incorporate new energy vehicle R & D into the assessment system of state-owned enterprises will be formulated.

In order to achieve the phased goals in 2025, the new industrial plan has put forward five strategic tasks, and has made specific paths for China to promote the high quality development of the new energy vehicle industry, including improving technological innovation capability, building new industrial ecology, promoting industrial convergence and development, improving infrastructure construction and deepening open cooperation.

"Today's industrial planning pays more attention to coordinated development and ecological construction." There is a summary of the automobile industry. On the one hand, planning encourages and promotes the development of industrial convergence, for example, the integration of new energy vehicles and energy; on the other hand, the development trend of other automotive industries, such as intellectualization, networking and even sharing, is also included in the important aspect of development.

In fact, as early as the beginning of this century, China has put forward the development strategy of "three vertical and three horizontal" new energy vehicles, but the draft redefined the "three vertical and three horizontal". The former "three horizontal" refers to the multi energy powertrain control system, motor and its control system and battery and its management system. The "three horizontal" in the draft is power battery and management system, driving motor and power electronics, networking and intelligent technology.

"The development trend of networking and intelligence is strong, and the market of shared application is pregnant and rising, and the industry has entered a new stage of superposition, convergence and development." The draft is pointed out. Under the guidance of this idea, intelligence and networking are also called important power sources for the development of new energy vehicles. According to the target set, the proportion of new car sales of intelligent network will reach 30% by 2025.

In the latest industrial planning draft, the policy encourages cross-border collaboration of new energy vehicles and enterprises in transportation, information and communication fields, so as to build an ecological leading enterprise covering key links such as solutions, R & D, production and operation services.