Real Demand And Real Pressure: Does Electric Vehicle Spring Really Come?

Electric cars are the leading role of Guangzhou motor show this year.

At the 2019 Guangzhou motor show, which opened in November 22nd, 182 exhibitors of new energy vehicles were exhibiting at home and abroad, an increase of 32 from last year, accounting for 17% of the total number of 1050 cars. Many of them are starting vehicles, and a number of joint ventures have launched a strong electric offensive against China.

However, for the trend of motorized transformation, this year's Guangzhou motor show also had a different voice. Wang Yongqing, general manager of SAIC, told reporters that pure electric vehicles are not the real demand of consumers. Making electric cars is far from a profitable business.

An important market message is that China's electric vehicle sales have been declining for 4 consecutive months due to the steep decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles.

Against this background, two different views have emerged.

One view is that the new energy market driven by policies can not enter the market stage quickly and smoothly. At present, there is still a big gap between electric vehicles and fuel vehicles, and car companies vigorously promote electric vehicles under the "double integration" policy.

Another view is that, despite the impact of subsidised subsidies in the short term, the impact of electric vehicle prices has affected the market growth, but with the cost reduction and product quality improvement, the spring of electric vehicles is not far away.

The timing of electric vehicle market has arrived?

Although China is already the world's largest electric vehicle market, the 4 consecutive month of negative growth seems to be concealment of the consumption structure behind the high growth.

In the first three quarters of this year, 872 thousand new energy vehicles were sold in China. The data provided by Wang Yongqing said that in 2019, 1-9 electric vehicles sold to individual consumers were sold to more than ten million vehicles in the country, and the rest were put into the B terminal market.

"There is no way to develop this." Wang Yongqing said that if the cost of battery is too high and the residual value of second-hand electric vehicles is too low, the two problems can not be solved, and the real demand is hard to emerge.

Chen Hao, deputy general manager of Dongfeng Nissan, also said in an interview that the proportion of private users of new energy vehicles is very small, and that most of them are bulk users.

It is worth noting that the two car companies are facing huge pressure on new energy vehicle production and marketing.

According to the circular issued by the Ministry of industry and Commerce on the "average fuel consumption and the new energy vehicle integration" of the 2018 passenger cars, the average fuel consumption of SAIC GM is not up to standard, the average fuel consumption is 20.9 points, but its new energy is only 2.35 million points.

The average fuel consumption negative points of SAIC (Shenyang) North Sheng Motor Co., Ltd. and SAIC general Dongyue Motor Co. Ltd. also exceed 12 tens of thousands of points, while the new energy total score is 0. SAIC is currently one of the biggest pressure companies with "double integration".

After the decline of new energy vehicle subsidies, the "double integral" policy will continue to promote the growth of China's new energy vehicle market. According to the "double integral" policy, vehicle companies need to produce more new energy vehicles to compensate for the negative fuel consumption of fuel vehicles.

From the "double integral" transcript published in the past two years, many joint ventures are facing enormous pressure. Many joint ventures including SAIC, Dongfeng, Changan Ford, Beijing modern and so on, because of the high fuel consumption negative integral, need to pay a certain fee to other car companies to buy points.

The "double integration" policy will also become increasingly stringent, and car companies need to balance the market and policies.

Japanese car companies have been more cautious about the electrification route. Some Japanese auto companies such as TOYOTA, Honda, Lexus and others have increased the mix of vehicle models in the Chinese market and started to layout the pure electric vehicle market. For example, Lexus unveiled its first pure electric vehicle at this Guangzhou auto show.

Of course, multinational car companies have invested heavily in China's electric vehicle market. Volkswagen Group will launch a comprehensive new energy product offensive next year as the largest selling vehicle company in China.

By the end of 2019, Volkswagen Group (China) will launch 14 new brand new energy vehicles. On the whole, Volkswagen Group (China) will launch 30 new energy vehicles produced in China by 2025, so as to achieve the target of 1 million 500 thousand local sales of new energy vehicles.

"Since the end of June this year, government departments have stopped buying subsidies for new energy vehicles, which leads consumers to buy new energy vehicles before the end of subsidies. This is a normal phenomenon. From the perspective of enterprises, what we should do is to focus on long-term strategic decisions. It is wrong to look at the current trend and short-term phenomena to make decisions. Volkswagen Group will not initiate our strategy of electrification because of subsidies. In November 21st, Volkswagen Group (China) CEO Feng Sihan said in an interview with the twenty-first Century economic report reporter.

"New forces" prepare for war

Although sales of electric vehicles are fluctuating from policy driven to market driven, new drivers of car sales generally hold optimistic expectations for EV vehicles. However, the new force will also usher in the first big test in 2020.

"The spring of electric vehicles is not far away." On November 20th, Li Bin, chairman of Wei Lai automobile, said at the 2019 China auto industry summit. He Xiaopeng, chairman of Xiaopeng automobile, said that the "winter" of electric vehicles may last for 12 months, but spring is not far away.

Reporter combing found that this year's Guangzhou motor show includes a total of 9 new car manufacturers including Wei Lai car, Xiaopeng car, Wei Ma motor, Proton car, future car, love car, skyline motor, Na Zha automobile and sail. In addition to the nulling car and the ideal vehicle to be delivered, the new power of singularity car and Bo county automobile has not appeared in this auto show.

Among them, Xiaopeng car's second production car P7 opens the pre-sale, the new EX6Plus of the new car is also unveiled and announced the price. In addition, in November 6th, the Nanjing plant started trial production of the proton car, bringing mass production version M-Byte.

Compared with other new vehicles, the market of Bai Teng motor entered the market late. But in the view of the chief executive of Dalton motor, wearing the experience of the forerunner, it can make the proton car less detours, and it has not lost the market opportunity.

"As a truly global company, Tesla is our only competitor. At the same time, we aim at the high-end car market to grab the sales volume of ABB, and our price will be very competitive. In November 20th, Daley told reporters on twenty-first Century economic report.

It is worth noting that when to profit is still an unavoidable topic for the new force of car manufacturing. With the approaching of the window period, the outside world is expecting more profit for the new force of the car making.

"The goal of Wei Ma is to become the first profitable vehicle manufacturing force in the world." In November 22nd, Shen Hui, chairman of CEO, told reporters during an auto show in Guangzhou.

Daley said that the goal of the company is to strive for a profit and loss balance in the next 18 months, which is expected at the end of 2021.

He Xiaopeng, chairman of Xiaopeng automobile, told reporters on twenty-first Century economic report that the new force of car making wants to achieve profit and loss balance, and monthly sales volume needs to exceed 10000 vehicles.

However, in the eyes of the outside world, such a goal is full of challenges. One reference data is that Tesla spent nearly ten years to see the possibility of continuous profit this year, and the new car force that first entered the market came from China. The new car has been delivered for two years, and the losses in the past few quarters have exceeded 2 billion yuan.

In Daley's view, the key to the new car driving force to get a share in the electric vehicle market lies in four aspects: product strength, quality and quality, cost and marketing. And it is also the first company to make clear its overseas strategy. According to the planning of China, China accounted for half of its global sales, while the other half came from Europe and the United States.

"I think electric cars must start at the top end. There will be great risks in the middle or low grade. The cost of electric cars will never be kept unchanged from traditional cars. There is no support from the government. The problem of cost will never be solved. In the field of high-end cars, even if there is no subsidy, your product has a price advantage and can compete directly with traditional cars. Of course, electric cars must have their own competitiveness, and they can't always rely on government subsidies. Finally, Daley said.