"2019 China Capital Market Development Trend Report": Innovative And Open Capital New Kinetic Energy

The market reform of the science and technology board, and the continuous promotion of the weight of the A share brought by the mainstream international stock index such as Shanghai link, MSCI and so on, triggered a profound change in the domestic capital market in 2019.

The southern financial international forum, which was jointly sponsored by the central broadcasting and TV station, Guangzhou, Hongkong and Macau, and the southern financial and economic media group, was held in December 5th in December 5th.

With the theme of "innovation and openness", the forum will focus on China's capital market reform, the opening up of the financial sector, the innovation of the securities fund industry, and the capital operation of listed companies.

In twenty-first Century, the Capital Research Institute will publish the "2019 China capital market trend report" at the forum. The report is composed of reform articles and open articles. It also sets up three sub reports, namely, listed companies, Guangdong Bay and Hong Kong Macau Bay area and asset management. Through combing the development path of domestic capital market in the past two years, it gives a forward-looking judgement on the future development trend.

Innovation and openness complement each other

Innovation is the foundation of opening up, and innovation is also driven by openness. The two complement each other.

In 2019, the launch of the science and technology board with the registration system means an important step in the reform of domestic capital market. On the basis of this report, this paper combs the development context of Ke Chuang plate, and makes a detailed analysis of its signal effect and derivative influence.

In twenty-first Century, the Capital Research Institute pointed out that science and technology enterprises have their own growth path and development law. Financial performance, many enterprises in the early stage of technological research and product development period, investment and income showed a mismatch in time characteristics, some enterprises have temporary losses, some enterprises have not generated income in the research and development stage, and the listing conditions of the science and technology board are focused on "inclusive".

As for the securities industry, because of the higher demand for the investment and business capabilities and capital strength of the securities companies, the future brokers will gain more business opportunities and greater voice in the contract of the science and technology innovation board.

Under the registration system of the Chuang Chuang plate, the securities companies not only need to undertake the function of sponsorship, but also need to shoulder the responsibility of inquiry pricing, issuing underwriting and sales, which urges the securities companies to participate in the transformation of the commission income from the past to the multi-dimensional and whole process, and deeply participate in the whole process of enterprise growth in the medium and long term. The transformation of this responsibility not only greatly improves the commission income of brokerage firms, but also greatly increases the viscosity of enterprises, facilitating multiple lines to develop businesses at the same time, digging deep potential value of enterprises, and bringing the overall linkage development of securities business.

Corresponding to the incremental innovation of Chuang Chuang board, the domestic market reform of gem and new three boards has been put forward at the right time.

"If the conditions are ripe, the registration system reform of gem will speed up. At that time, the successful experience of Ke Chuang board will be extended to the gem, and the value of the experimental field will be reflected quickly. Although the rules for issuing and listing new and old standards are not yet clear, the registration system reform of GEM has shown signs of a comprehensive reform of registration system. Capital Research Institute pointed out in twenty-first Century.

Another main line is the acceleration of the two-way opening process of capital market.

As for the opening process of domestic capital market, Shanghai line is an important node, which can be divided into two stages.

The former is represented by QFII and RQFII, and is a channel and one-way capital market opening to the outside world. The latter is a two-way opening represented by Shanghai Tong Tong and China Japan ETF products exchange.

At the same time, the restrictions on the investment quota of QFII and RQFII have been abolished this year, and the expansion of MSCI index has further strengthened the opening degree of capital market. On the one hand, it promotes the overall investment logic and system reconstruction of domestic capital market, and on the other hand, it also accelerates the construction of "capital setting" in the domestic capital market.

In twenty-first Century, the Capital Research Institute held that the lack of hedging tools made the A share position of foreign investment face the risk of fluctuation in the two stage market, which was not conducive to the continuous allocation of foreign capital. Only by vigorously developing futures and options based financial derivatives market can enrich hedging tools and increase the market capacity of risk management.

The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index option is the first financial option product in China, and the demonstration significance is very significant. After the phased maturity of the product, the domestic financial derivatives will be pushed along the following three main lines.

First, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index options will further expand to Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and central card 500, thus forming a more complete coverage of stock index options family. Second, financial options products may expand to Treasury bond futures, such as the launch of the 5 year treasury bond option. Third, the icebreaking of financial options may bring opportunities for foreign exchange futures, thus laying the foundation for the listing of foreign exchange options.

In addition, due to the obvious increase in the allocation of A shares this year, the Capital Research Institute in twenty-first Century also conducted a comprehensive and systematic analysis of the direction of capital flow and velocity in the north.

The report points out that although there are only 579 stocks and 82 stocks in Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange, they have gradually grown into a force that can not be ignored in the A share market.

The key to change the intensity of foreign capital inflow in Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities lies in the expansion of the scope of opening up. Due to the blue chip as the earliest open target, the total number of foreign capital holdings has begun to take shape, and the early stage basic allocation has been completed. In the future, the northward capital may enter the two choice stage, and the performance of individual stocks will be obviously differentiated.

Return to the original source

As one of the most important components of the capital market, this report also makes a detailed analysis of the current situation, development trend and value of the listed companies this year.

According to statistics, in 2019, the overall value of A listed 3706 listed companies (excluding longevity and retirement) kept a steady upward trend, but it was also affected by the slowdown in macroeconomic growth.

The domestic demand side is relatively low, which is not enough to support a significant change in the income of the listed companies at the micro level. Only a few enterprises benefit from the improvement of the industry boom will produce structural income growth, but the driving force is limited.

The report takes the example of GREE electric appliance which is frequently crossed this year and the analysis of the liquor industry which is still growing. The following conclusions are drawn: the key to the slowdown of the domestic appliance industry is that the domestic market is becoming more and more saturated, and the existing market capacity is not enough to support the rapid growth of these head enterprises.

In addition, such enterprises have entered the mature stage, and the market position and competition structure have solidified, leading companies have entered the stage of "defending the city". In the future, if there is no obvious innovation in the company's products and technology, or the channel reform is not smooth enough, it may even face the risk of negative growth.

In twenty-first Century, the Capital Research Institute pointed out that under the background of solidifying the industrial structure, it is difficult to grow into a Super Company by continuing to rely on traditional industries to do "addition". The next step is to bet on new technologies and new industries, and quickly grab the market through core technology and products, so as to produce a great public company.

While making a comprehensive analysis of the overall listed companies, the report also gives a full presentation from the perspective of capital competitiveness, layout and industrial distribution, taking the most dynamic economic zone of Guangdong, Hongkong and Macau as a sample.

From the perspective of economic scale, 11 cities in Guangdong, Hongkong and Macau can be ranked as "3+2+6" three echelons: the first tier in 2018, Shenzhen, Hongkong and Guangzhou three yuan GDP exceeded 2 trillion yuan, Shenzhen GDP exceeded Hongkong for the first time, the value added of the financial industry in 2017 reached 200 billion yuan and above; second echelon, Dongguan and Foshan as the financial city group of the big bay area, 2018 GDP between 800 billion yuan and 1 trillion yuan; third tier Macao, Zhongshan, Zhuhai, Zhuhai, Zhuhai, five five cities, 2018 GDP between 100 billion to 100 billion yuan.

In terms of the net profit growth rate of listed companies, Guangdong rolled Beijing and Shanghai. Among them, Shenzhen, the most powerful capital market in Tai Wan, is far ahead of Beijing and Shanghai in terms of net profit growth, while Guangzhou has far exceeded Beijing and Shanghai in the past 5 years and 10 years, but in the past 3 and 1 years, it has fallen behind Beijing and Shanghai.

The report points out that when the transition from traditional economic pattern to service economy and innovation economy in the big bay area of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, the proportion of investment in services and R & D has steadily increased. Objectively, it requires that financial adjustment be made adaptable. It should be developed from a single form of service industry, such as shipping, gold and commercial insurance, which serves the port, into diversified formats including venture capital, financial technology, financial business and green finance.

But financial institutions, which play an important role in the past year, are facing the pain of returning to their origins.

From the normative effect of the new regulation of asset management, asset management business is accelerating from the OTC mode of past expected rate of return, rigid payment, capital pool and channel business to the field mode represented by active investment management and passive tracking tools.

In twenty-first Century, the Capital Research Institute pointed out that the return of the underlying asset risk pricing is going to break through the arrival of the new era. The return of the underlying asset risk is creating a new major challenge for the asset management industry. With the fund's new rules, the business of serving the buyer may become the next battleground of the asset management industry.

It also suggests that, on the basis of adhering to the new rules of information management, it is possible to further clarify the access requirements and risk pricing methods of non-standard assets, create conditions to achieve the unified registration and valuation of non-standard assets across departments, so as to meet the requirements of the net value transformation of information management products, and provide the possibility for non-standard assets to be included in the normal investment of the asset management industry.