Electricity Supplier Live Directly Into The 2019 Largest Outlet: Still Can Not Afford To Fight Mogujie.Com?

In the past "double eleven" Carnival Shopping Festival, a lot of amazing new sales patterns have sprung up. This year, from November 1st to 11 this year, the total retail sales of the whole country exceeded 870 billion yuan, an increase of 26.7% over the same period last year.

Among them, the live broadcast of e-commerce is especially outstanding.

Ali official data show that this year more than 50% of the businesses opened the live room on the day of double eleven. Double eleven opening time is only 1 hours and 03 minutes, the live guided transaction is more than the whole day last year; 8 hours and 55 points, the scale of Taobao's live broadcast market has broken tens of billions, of which, in home decoration and consumer electronics industry, the number of live broadcast transactions has increased by more than 400%.

Not only the double one, but this year's live broadcast is also excellent at other times, so in 2019, it was widely defined as "the first year of live broadcast of electronic commerce".

In the capital market, the prospect of the live broadcast of electronic commerce has also been fully affirmed. Guosheng securities has predicted that after the official monetization, Taobao's live cash conversion rate will be several times that of Taobao Tmall's current realisation level, and it is expected to contribute 15% to 18% of the domestic retail business in the 2020 fiscal year and the 2021 fiscal year.

There is no doubt that the live broadcast of electronic commerce has become a new industry outlet.

Ali can play a leading role in the live broadcast of e-commerce. Since March 2016, Taobao has started trial operation. With the development of three years, the progress of Taobao's live broadcast is in full swing. This year's goal is to build 200 live broadcast rooms with a sales volume of over 100 million. From the perspective of the performance of double eleven, it is not difficult to achieve this goal.

Mogujie.com also tried to make live broadcast of e-commerce from 2016. It is also one of the pioneers of live broadcast, but its current situation is very optimistic.

Mogujie.com is dangerous.

In November 29th, mogujie.com (MOGU) released its second quarter financial results for the 2020 fiscal year ending September 30, 2019, and the fourth financial report released after the launch of mogujie.com, which made mogujie.com's situation in the capital market more difficult.

In December 6, 2018, mogujie.com officially traded on the NYSE, which could be called a bloody listing. The first day it opened for $12.25, down 12.5% compared to the IPO issue price of $14 /ADS. After the listing, mogujie.com's stock price fell all the way, so that the initial public offerings at the end of 2018 did not get much money.

In the fourth earnings report after the listing, mogujie.com handed over another answer.

First of all, net loss attributable to common shareholders reached 326 million 600 thousand yuan, the biggest loss since its listing. This loss amount is consistent with its net loss and is also the net loss of mogujie.com's largest amount since 2018.

Second, the growth rate of GMV has been declining for twelve consecutive months, and total revenue has dropped to 197 million 900 thousand yuan, almost half of its net loss of 326 million 600 thousand yuan.

Investors have never bought the "first share of fashion technology". After listing, mogujie.com jumped on the cliff, leaving only a fraction of the stock price and market value in the near future.

When 29 mogujie.com announced the 2020 Q2 earnings report, the stock market has not left much room for fluctuation, but the lowest share price has been dropped to $2.01.

Of course, mogujie.com has to be truly grateful for the Thanksgiving Day in the United States without becoming a "1 dollar share". If it were not for Thanksgiving, the NYSE closed 29 hours ahead of 3 hours in advance, and mogujie.com would probably become a 1 yuan share.

The problem is that Thanksgiving Day is only one day, so mogujie.com's luck will soon end. In December 3rd, mogujie.com's lowest stock price dropped to $1.94 on Tuesday.

In short, mogujie.com is in such a difficult position.

To such a degree, it can not be said that it has reached a desperate situation, but it seems that it is not too far away from the worst.

The live broadcast of electric business has become a life-saving straw.

In mogujie.com's 2020 fiscal year Q2 earnings report, there are actually some noteworthy highlights. For example, the rapid growth of live broadcasting business.

Seriously, mogujie.com's live broadcast of e-commerce may be earlier than that of Taobao.

According to the online public information, mogujie.com formally launched the live broadcasting function in March 21, 2016, while Taobao live broadcasting started trial operation in March 2016 and officially released in April 21st.

After opening the live broadcast business, mogujie.com has been steadily increasing its coverage on the live broadcast of e-commerce, and the strategic focus is constantly adjusting to this direction.

Mogujie.com's revenue comes mainly from the two channels of merchant Commission and online marketing services based on content. Commission income includes a 5% commission to ordinary merchants and a 10% commission to direct service providers.

After the 2017 fiscal year, the proportion of commission income in mogujie.com's total revenue has been increasing. In the 2019 fiscal year, commission revenue finally surpassed marketing services, contributing nearly half of mogujie.com's revenue.

Mogujie.com's revenue structure has undergone such a profound change. On the one hand, it shows that the property of mogujie.com's e-commerce platform has been continuously strengthened, and it has also witnessed the rapid development of the direct seeding business of e-commerce.

In the 2020 fiscal year (April 1, 2019 -2020 March 31st), mogujie.com made the direct broadcast of e-commerce as the core of the strategy. And clearly put forward three strategies to promote the development of the business of direct seeding:

First, provide new value-added services around the live broadcast.

Second, we use the enhanced infrastructure to significantly increase the number of live live slots per day and the length of live broadcast.

Finally, help KOL improve liquidity efficiency.

Adhering to the three major strategies, mogujie.com's Q2 performance in the financial season looks very bright.

The new 2000 broadcasts increased to 3400 hours per day in September 2019. The proportion of live related GMV in total GMV is increasing, accounting for 39% of total GMV, which is 32% in the previous quarter.

Before August 26th, mogujie.com founder and CEO June announced a target of mogujie.com after the first quarter earnings report: "in the next 12 months, the growth of GMV related to live services will account for the majority of the total GMV."

It is not difficult to achieve this goal, because the current business of mogujie.com's live broadcast business is still in a state of rapid growth.

In the Q2 season, the growth rate of live related GMV remained at 3 digits.

"Since the performance of live broadcasting is so excellent, it is natural that we should stir up the whole mogujie.com." This is what mogujie.com's leadership management thinks.

But the problem now exposed is that the growth of mogujie.com's live broadcasting business is not without cost, nor is there no limit.

Live broadcast of electric business may not save mogujie.com

The dilemma of mogujie.com is very intuitive. In the final analysis, it is the two word "lack of money".

The listing of blood is for financing, but not how much money has been melted. As of December 2018, mogujie.com's initial public offering received a total net income of $58 million.

Not only did not melt into the amount of money, or even pay.

In order to stimulate the market, mogujie.com announced a stock buyback plan in May 30th. In the next 12 months, it is planned to buy a stock of not more than US $15 million, and the amount of repurchase may reach 25% of its proceeds.

This will no doubt make mogujie.com's tight capital reserves even worse.

As of September 30, 2019, mogujie.com held cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and short-term investments totaling 1 billion 288 million 100 thousand yuan (US $180 million 200 thousand). By comparison, as of June 30, 2019, it was 1 billion 462 million 400 thousand yuan (US $223 million).

Obviously, mogujie.com's capital reserves are in a state of rapid shrinkage. And what is associated with it is the more serious loss of mogujie.com mentioned above.

A major reason for the loss is the expansion of live broadcasting business.

After the listing, mogujie.com's marketing service business and other businesses' atrophy and growth rate declined significantly.

The biggest problem is that although the live related GMV still maintains three digit growth, the monetization level of live broadcast business is still not high.

In mogujie.com's current financial statements, the revenue generated by mogujie.com's live streaming business needs to be reflected through commission income. But after the listing, mogujie.com Commission revenue growth is slowing down.

This shows that mogujie.com is indeed paying more attention to the live broadcast of the electricity supplier, but the live broadcast of e-commerce can not bring real cash income to mogujie.com for the time being.

For mogujie.com, the live broadcast of the business is looking more like a costly "distant water". Unfortunately, "distant water is hard to save near fire".

　 A discussion on the prospect of live broadcast of e-commerce

Mogujie.com executives should have a more optimistic attitude.

From all kinds of performance, mogujie.com is relatively ahead of the layout of the live broadcast of e-commerce, and they are very optimistic about the prospects of the live broadcast of the electricity supplier.

In November 24th, 2019 NetEase Forum on the theme of "summit dialogue: new species explosion logic" forum, mogujie.com senior vice president Huang Zhaojie and Xiaohong Book partner Ceng Xiulian conducted a dialogue on "new species explosion logic".

In the process of dialogue, Huang Zhaojie did his duty. Take every word with the key words "live broadcast of mogujie.com".

In discussing how to better attract and retain young people, Huang Zhaojie said: "live broadcast is a richer and more powerful mode than short video. By contrast, its interaction and immersion are stronger, so mogujie.com will have greater input in this regard. "

Mogujie.com is constantly reducing its emphasis on live broadcasting, and naturally has its own deeper consideration.

Huang Zhaojie explained this: "we have found a very core trend in the understanding of young people's handling methods: their demand for the media is very strong and very strong. For them, the content they consume every day, the short video to watch, the live broadcast to be seen, the graphics and texts to consume, and the amount of information to be obtained are very large. Therefore, our efforts are biased towards this aspect.

When asked whether Taobao's live broadcast is a false proposition, Huang Zhaojie's answer is very clear: "I think live broadcasting is absolutely not a false proposition, it has just begun. Because the core advantage of live broadcast is that it is highly interactive and highly immersive. It can also fully display all the factors in front of you, which is very interesting.

Huang Zhaojie added: "it can be said that live broadcasts have a strong ability to magnify the perception of consumers, the latest trend of fashion, the capture of fashion hotspots and the improvement of product strength. So live broadcast is not a false proposition, just like the VR games mentioned before, there will be more immersive live broadcast, such as helmet watching live broadcast.

Highly interactive and highly immersive, more intuitive online shopping experience, of course, will be welcomed by users. And Ceng Xiulian (small red book partner) believes that in addition to high interaction can enhance user shopping experience, another advantage of live broadcast is that the cost of content production is very low.

Generally speaking, Huang Zhaojie and Ceng Xiulian are very optimistic about the future of the live broadcast of the electricity supplier.

But at the end of the dialogue, Huang Zhaojie said this: "in my opinion, the most prominent player in the Internet industry in the future is the platform that can provide differentiated user value."

He further explained: "only by providing differentiated user value, can you have the source of water before you have distribution, and there is a lot of liquidity. Only by providing differentiated user value, can users be willing to pay the bill and willing to spend time here. Products and companies that enable users to get different information or different experiences to make users better and get more help can stay in the Internet competition. "

These words themselves are quite reasonable. But combining mogujie.com's rugged experience with the "vertical electricity supplier" road can give people unlimited reverie.

Mogujie.com's business live broadcast, the more narrow the way, the narrower the way.

June graduated from the computer department of Zhejiang University. In 2004, she joined Taobao as an early employee of Taobao network, responsible for user interface and product experience. In 2011, he founded mogujie.com with Wei Yi Bo.

What mogujie.com started with is the content community e-commerce guide, and once it controls Taobao's nearly 10% traffic portals, such as beauty, and so on, it threatens Ali deeply.

In May 2012, Ma Yun published several principles for e-commerce shopping guide and rebate websites at the internal meeting.

First, do not support the upstream shopping website to continue to grow. Ali's traffic entrance should be grasslands instead of forests.

Second, the industry chain can cooperate with other industries and try not to cooperate with the same industry.

Third, do not support rebate websites.

Therefore, mogujie.com had to think of a way out. In 2013, the online trading system based on women's fashion was constructed, and the closed loop of e-commerce transactions was realized. Beauty, which is very similar to mogujie.com, has made similar choices this year.

Beginning in 2013, Lei Jun often talked about flying pig theory when he was interviewed by the media and attended various public activities, and became a successful methodology of popular venture capital circle.

Lei Jun said, "starting a business is to be a pig standing on the draught, and the wind station is right, and the pig can fly."

Lei Jun's theory has been tested by practice, and millet in 2013 has also entered the fast lane of development. So his theory is also regarded as a standard by many entrepreneurs, and has inspired countless indifferent entrepreneurs.

Mogujie.com should also be inspired.

When the list of the top 100 Internet companies in China was released in 2016, the director of the Industrial Information Research Institute of the Ministry of information industry at Jia Ning said: "there are so many electric business companies this year that we have to split them up and split them into integrated e-commerce, vertical electricity suppliers, online tourism, Internet finance, B2B e-commerce. E-commerce has flourished and has become one of the most important formats in China's Internet industry.

In 2016, mogujie.com, a beautiful company, has been merged into the fourth largest electricity supplier in China after ranking Alibaba, Jingdong and vip.com, and has become an outstanding representative of vertical electricity providers.

But mogujie.com's brilliance is very short. After the business live broadcast in 2016, the development of mogujie.com seems to be in a stagnation.

According to the data disclosed by mogujie.com, mogujie.com's annual active buyers have been hovering around 30 million since the Q3 (NATURAL year) in 2017.

By the third quarter of this year (NATURAL year), there was even a 12.3% year-on-year decline.

This is a very serious problem. As a B2C business, mogujie.com should attach importance to B terminal merchants, and at the same time, ignore the C end users, because both are the foundation. Once the user has lost, it means that the attraction of merchants is also decreasing.

That is to say, vip.com, like Ali, has been doing live broadcast for three years, but now it has narrowed its way.

After that, only the dragon can fly on the draught.

Ali made Taobao in 2003, making B2C in 2008, making the real advantage and becoming China's largest comprehensive store, in 2009, and mogujie.com was founded two years later.

Now Ali's market value is 521 billion 36 million dollars (December 3rd), and mogujie.com's market value is 218 million dollars (December 3rd). Recall the rumors that Ali wanted 200 million dollars to buy mogujie.com in 2013, which is really impressive.

The difference between Ali and mogujie.com, who is the leader of the live broadcast of e-commerce, may be that they are different in positioning themselves.

Alibaba started the business as the strongest business enterprise, the target customer group is everyone, and mogujie.com's positioning is "becoming a fashionable destination". The target user group is 15-30 year old, two or three line city fashion young women.

The difference between the original positioning and the current difference is very different now.

This year, "double eleven" one day, Taobao live direct drive the turnover of about 20 billion yuan, while mogujie.com in the 2020 half fiscal year (April 1st -9 30), the total number of live GMV related to the electricity supplier was only 2 billion 940 million yuan.

Live broadcast is undoubtedly an industry outlet.

But mogujie.com is constantly upgrading the live broadcast of the electricity supplier, not thinking about how to rise, how to "fly", but "stay in the competition of the Internet".

Because sober people understand that the time has changed and the pigs on the draught can no longer fly.

According to QuestMobile statistics, in September, the number of China Mobile Internet monthly active users reached 1 billion 133 million, while in January 2019 to September, China only added 2 million 380 thousand months of live users.

In such a stock era, almost every area of the Internet has completed the division of forces.

In the start-up companies, the myth of the rapid rise of dips and US groups can no longer be repeated.

Vertical players like mogujie.com are always facing the constant attack of the big business giants who are expanding to the whole category, the whole channel and the whole user.