Warm Winter In Shenzhen Property Market: Volume And Price Rise In Secondary Market

In December, the cold war in the national property market was going on and on, and the North went up and down, but only the warmth of Shenzhen.

This has been benefited from the good policies of the beginning of this year. In August, Shenzhen was listed as the first demonstration area of socialism with Chinese characteristics, and the relaxation of the standard of luxury housing tax in November has become the reason why Shenzhen's property market is thriving.

Multiple stimuli superimposed on depressed demand for housing, a second-hand housing market continues to heat up, and at the end of the year has even ushered in an outbreak.

In the past November, Shenzhen not only appeared luxury houses, just needed "CD-ROM", second-hand housing transactions also hit a new high of three years, coupled with a substantial increase in the supply of new houses, and the market continued to rise in December.

The property market and housing sales have become a topic of national concern in Shenzhen. Where to buy a house, whether to change rooms is discussed frequently in the crowd gathering place.

How long will the Shenzhen property market continue to be hot?

Gan Jun photo

"Tail up" market

Originally thought that the property market's traditional "golden nine silver ten" has been the peak, but Shenzhen has been in the opposite direction, at the end of the year.

This goes back to double eleven. In November 11th, a heavy message came from Shenzhen that the value added tax was greatly raised by the standard of luxury residential buildings: the residential area with a floor area below 144 and the plot volume ratio of residential area above 1 was exempt from value-added tax for two years.

A new tax reduction policy, the second day the property market broke out, second-hand housing prices have jumped, the owners "sitting up" is common.

According to Shenzhen Central Plains statistics, in November, second-hand housing transactions exceeded 8000 sets, up 11.84%, up 91.93% compared with the same period last year. Among them, 1985 sets of transactions in Baoan became the new high in the year, and the hottest area in the second half of the year, accounting for 1/4 of the total volume of transactions in the city.

In terms of price, Q housing network data show that all the six major administrative districts have risen in price, Nanshan District has the largest increase, the average price has reached 92 thousand / square meters, and the increase has reached 21.05% last year, and the average price of the whole city has risen to 55499 yuan / Ping.

According to chain data, Bao Zhong, Bi Hai and Qianhai are the main housing areas. The average price of the treasure is about 70 thousand / flat in the first half of the year. Now it has jumped to about 90 thousand / Ping.

For developers, they also usher in a sales window. Since November, the number of new housing records has been rising, and the new market has been listed on the market. Whether it is luxury or just needed, many projects are sold out.

Shenzhen Central Plains data show that in November, the supply rate of new housing in Shenzhen was significantly accelerated, and the supply volume was the highest in three years. A total of 22 projects were approved to sell 13089 sets of commercial housing in the city, and the number of packages was nearly 3 times that of October.

New houses are sold out. For example, Qianhai luxury residential investment opened 456 sets, the average price of 108 thousand / flat, sold out on the opening day; Qianhai mansion, Yi Wan house opened, pushing 367 suites, the average price of 102 thousand / flat, opened only 4.5 hours to sell 322 sets, to nearly 90%.

Even the remote Guangming New Area, Longguang Nine Dragons two stage online opened, the average price is 48 thousand / flat, the decoration fee is another calculation, push 750 sets, all sold out.

According to the Central Plains data, in November, the total number of new residential buildings was 3196 units, up 20.33%, up 61.01% compared to the same period last year, and the total area was 329 thousand and 700 square meters, up 20.33%, up 61.01% over the same period.

Many Shenzhen developers and industry insiders believe that the policy is relatively loose at the end of the year. The most stringent regulation has passed. Shenzhen has relaxed the luxury property line, and Foshan and Zhongshan have relaxed the restriction. This gives the market very optimistic expectations.

He Qianru, director of the National Research Center of the United States alliance, told the twenty-first Century economic report that "the new housing market, there are many popular hot spots in November, plus the close year. Developers are closer to the market in order to achieve the annual sales target, so the turnover is very good."

Q housing network researchers believe that in 2016, "3. 25" tightening cycle, Shenzhen housing demand accumulation, improve housing demand backlog, with the release of favorable policies, the city's new housing transactions will remain high.

Warm winter continues

Under the bleak market of the national property market, Shenzhen's property market is unique.

Zhang Bo, chief analyst of Anju Real Estate Research Institute, believes that the most important factor affecting the Shenzhen property market is the expectations of buyers for the region. "This year, Shenzhen has significantly increased its heat. Not only the demand for local housing has increased significantly, but also the demand for foreign investment has been gathering, and the sales volume of commercial and residential products has also increased rapidly."

Looking back in the first half of this year, the Shenzhen property market is still calm, the price of second-hand housing is loosening, and the new housing market is also flagging.

In May, Futian overseas Chinese town New Swan Stone Castle opened in the three phase. Buji just wanted to sell 415 sets of Jinghua Ling Ling, which was less than 50% of the day's day, and the new market was generally rather bleak.

Good news continues in Shenzhen in the second half. In November 6th, a preferential policy was put forward to help people in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau to live and work in the mainland, and distribute housing tickets directly to Hong Kong and Macao residents.

In Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau, the control policy has been loosened. He Qianru, director of the National Research Center of the United States, believes that Shenzhen's booming residential market this year has much to do with the good news. Other cities are hard to compare.

She analyzed, "in February, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau big bay area planning, the first demonstration area in August, and the adjustment of non ordinary housing standards in November, all of which have stimulated the second-hand housing market."

However, it needs to be pointed out that the differentiation of Shenzhen property market is becoming more and more serious. Although all of them benefit from the strategy of Guangdong, Hongkong and Macau, the core of the strategy is in Qianhai and Qianhai in the west, so the western market of Shenzhen property market is much better than that of the East. The East and west sides are only more than 20 kilometers apart. Many flats in the west can be opened at the beginning, and some need Yaohao, but it is hard to see this phenomenon in the East.

Subregional perspective, compared with the first half of the year, the average price of second-hand housing in Qianhai rose from 80 thousand / 100 thousand to nearly 100 thousand, and the average price in the treasure rose from 70 thousand to 90 thousand / Ping, and the blue sea rose from 70 thousand to 70 thousand. Relatively speaking, Yantian District and Dapeng new district increased slightly.

Shell Research Institute data show that in November 2019, the average price of Shenzhen second-hand housing listing was 62 thousand and 300 yuan / Ping, an increase of about 1.59% compared with the same period last year, the only rise in four tier cities.

It is worth noting that, in the case of a better market, the owners' default phenomena such as anti price and withdrawal have begun to appear. Lawyers remind buyers to pay attention to the risk of second-hand housing contract.

At present, the heat of the Shenzhen property market has not yet declined. In the first week of December, a total of 1006 new residential buildings in Shenzhen were sold, up by 19.48% compared with the previous month, with an area of 103 thousand square meters and a rise of 16.36%. It is expected that the new housing market will remain active until the lunar new year.

The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Financial Strategy Research Institute report predicts that in 2020, the housing market of key cities will be stabilized first, and the housing price is expected to achieve a soft landing. Shenzhen is warned that "house prices may rise in general".

Zhang Bo, chief analyst of Anju Real Estate Research Institute, believes that the future development of Shenzhen may exceed expectations, but this year's housing prices have risen too fast. Speculative demand is showing concern. "If housing prices in Shenzhen are still rising obviously next year, they will not rule out corresponding regulatory policies."