Outlook For Cotton Prices At Home And Abroad

 

But investor concerns have not been completely eliminated, hoping to see more details of the agreement, and the judicial committee of the house of Representatives voted to impeach the Trump clause to bring more uncertainty to the market. In the international cotton market, according to the US Department of agriculture's December report, the world's cotton production in 2019/20 reached 26 million 368 thousand tons, an increase of 2.55% over the same period last year, and cotton consumption of 26 million 186 thousand tons, down 0.02% from the same period last year. Since the beginning of this year, the US Department of agriculture has adjusted the consumption of 2019/20 for the first time to a year-on-year decline.

 

At present, the cotton harvest rate in the northern hemisphere has accelerated. As of December 2019, 8 cotton harvest in the United States increased by 89% percentage points, compared with the previous week by 6 percentage points. In addition to Kansas and Texas, the harvest in other regions has basically ended. In the early December, the new cotton market in Pakistan had reached 1 million 266 thousand tons. As of November 18, 2019, the cotton market in India was about 491 thousand tons, and the cotton association of India (CAI) recently predicted that the cotton production in India in the year of CAI was 6 million 26 thousand and 500 tons, which was flat compared to the same period, an increase of 13.6% over the previous year. The international cotton yarn market is still slack. In addition to the China Pakistan FTA, Pakistan cotton yarn prices have picked up slightly.

 

Prices of cotton yarn in Vietnam, Uzbekistan and Indonesia have all weakened, and Chinese orders haven't improved. India's demand for air spinning has decreased, and seasonal demand has been fading. Sino US relations are the main source of uncertainty in the trend of international cotton prices in a market where supply of cotton is adequate and demand is falling.

 

Domestic cotton price range fluctuates. This week, the central economic work conference is scheduled for 2020. Macroeconomic regulation and control will ensure the economic operation in a reasonable range from all aspects, and stick to the word of stability. At the same time, it emphasizes that the pressure of economic downturns is increasing, the sources of global turbulence and risk points have increased significantly. China is in the key stage of transforming development mode, optimizing economic structure and changing growth momentum. Structural, institutional and cyclical issues are intertwined, and the "three phase superposition" will continue to deepen.

 

Work plan should be done well. Domestic cotton market, according to the national cotton market monitoring system data, as of December 13th, the new cotton harvest basically ended, the national total sales of seed cotton and cotton lint 5 million 614 thousand tons, of which 4 million 965 thousand tons of cotton seed and cotton lint were sold, and 4 million 583 thousand tons of lint cotton were processed nationwide, of which 4 million 70 thousand tons of lint were processed in Xinjiang, and 1 million 405 thousand tons of lint were sold throughout the country, of which 1 million 152 thousand tons of lint were sold in Xinjiang. With the end of new cotton picking, cotton stocks in Xinjiang reached a high level in the year.

 

Zhengzhou cotton rose this week to drive cotton enterprises to continue to buy hedging, and the number of Zheng cotton warehouse receipts increased from 57 thousand tons to 890 thousand and 400 tons last week. Purchase of lint spot market is deserted. Near the end of the year, the downstream textile market is weakening again. The cotton yarn is preferential to the inventory. The pure cotton storage is large and the sales are slow. With the continuous transportation of logistics and transportation in the late December and the beginning of January, the news of the factory's early holiday is continuing. It is expected that the raw material stock will be reduced.

 

According to the national cotton market monitoring system survey, in the early December, the yarn production and sales rate of enterprises surveyed by sampling in the early December was 0.8 percentage points lower than that in the early 3 months, and the cotton fabric inventory was 13.3 days higher than the average level in the same period in the past 3 years. Near the annual pace of the holiday, the market is more worried about demand side, cotton prices rising power weakened. Recent Sino US trade talks have increased and vigilance against the risk of Zheng cotton futures has intensified.