Too Many Years Ago, Too Much Risk?

Recently, with the gradual warming of the market, cotton prices have risen sharply. Individual enterprises hoarding cotton gambling market also have the phenomenon of fund speculation. In fact, the risk of catching up is greater than before.

First, the resistance of Zheng cotton to continue upward is greater. Since last December, after Zheng cotton pulled off the curtain, less than half a year's time, Zheng cotton's main contract increased by over 1100 yuan / ton. This round of soaring effect is obvious: it has pulled up market confidence and also pulled up the spot market.

However, the author observed that the main force of Zheng cotton recently tried 14500 yuan / ton without fruit. In the face of enormous upward pressure, Zheng cotton's upward momentum is obviously insufficient.

Two, recently, cotton prices both rose inside and outside, but the spreads widened slightly. According to traders feedback, as of the 15 of this month, Xinjiang hand picked cotton "double 28" grade Hebei Hengshui, Henan Zhengzhou warehouse point delivery price of 14200-14400 yuan / ton (pick up, weight, including tax), net weight price of 14600 yuan / ton.

According to Qingdao port traders, by the end of the year, 2019 M 36 (strong 28GPT) Brazil cotton net weight quoted price 14400-14500 yuan / ton; 2018/19 SM 1-1/8 (strong 28GPT, Benin and Mali, Burkina Faso, etc.) West Africa cotton, M 1-5/32 India cotton net weight quoted price is 14200-14300 yuan / ton, 13900-14050 yuan / ton respectively.

The difference between inside and outside cotton prices has widened slightly. Compared with domestic cotton, the textile factory is more willing to use outer cotton when holding quotas.

The market expects that with the signing of the first stage trade agreement between China and the United States in January 15th, the US cotton will enter the Chinese market in large numbers, and with the 1% tariff import quota coming down in 2020, it will bring enough pressure to domestic cotton.

Three, there are not many orders in textile mills. This week, textile mills in various parts of the country have been on holiday. However, when understanding the order of enterprises, many enterprises say that the order is not ideal. Most enterprise orders can be arranged to 2-3 months, but still mainly scattered and small orders, individual large factory orders to April 2020, but also "quantity small single scattered".

For example, a factory in Shandong said that the factory has been maintaining "single pick up", but at present, the stock of products still accumulates quite a lot. It is expected that only a small number of orders can be placed on the basis of maintaining the original orders after the Spring Festival.

Talking about the procurement of raw materials, most manufacturers say they will depend on their strength and capital turnover, "buy with them" or "cotton".

To sum up, there are still many uncertainties in the cotton market after the Spring Festival. At this time, the risk of catching up in gambling market is higher, which reminds the industry to operate cautiously.