The Real Estate Brokerage Industry Under The Epidemic Situation: The Volume Of Transactions Should Be Reduced To Prepare For Cash Flow.

In February 10th, a chain store in Chaoyang District, Beijing, was returned to normal work as required. However, Xiao Li, a salesperson, said that in recent days, "there is no one to shop, and telephone consultation is much less than usual."

Compared with new housing transactions, second-hand housing and leasing transactions are more dependent on the line. Since the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia, the real estate brokerage industry has been greatly affected. According to the twenty-first Century economic report, Beijing's major brokerage firms decided to return to work in the middle of February. However, because some districts and streets restricted businesses to open, many stores did not really resume their businesses.

Even if the storefront is already open, it can be imagined that "the court is deserted". This not only affects the personal income of brokers, but also damages the revenue and cash flow of brokerage firms.

Recently, the shell Research Institute jointly launched the "2020 coronavirus impact on China's real estate brokers" survey by the housing and Economic Cooperation Association. The survey showed that in the absence of trading, the 70% brokerage company indicated that the cash flow lasted six months. Affected by this, the market shrinkage and the loss of brokers will probably appear.

Cash flow pressure is obvious.

"From past experience, every year after the 8th day of the first month of the Chinese lunar calendar, traffic will pick up quickly. This year, from the online performance of Anju, the recovery of traffic volume has obviously been postponed." As for how the epidemic affects online transactions, Zhang Bo, director of 58 Anju Real Estate Research Institute, said to the twenty-first Century economic report.

Zhang Bo believes that the short-term impact of the epidemic is reflected in the sharp decline in trading volume, which is directly related to the current crowd's concern that it can not be seen in real estate and offline, but the other level is the psychological impact on both sides of the transaction. This effect may lead to a recovery period after the outbreak.

Zhang Bo expects the first quarter of this year, the secondary housing market sales will be significantly lower than the same period last year. After the two quarter, sales have rebounded, but it is difficult to exceed the overall level of last year.

The decline in trading volume will directly affect cash flow, which is also the "lifeline" of the real estate brokerage industry. In February 12th, Peng Yongdong, CEO, said that the weak market and the epidemic city are different strategies. The market is efficient, and your efficiency is high. The inefficient market will be phased out gradually until the whole supply and trading volume is stable.

He suggested that "we can reduce 9, 7, 5, 3, 1 into the next 5-6 months' cash flow calculation in February".

According to the above survey conducted by China Chamber of Commerce and shell research, the superposition of the epidemic during the Spring Festival holiday resulted in a trading halt and a significant reduction in revenue. However, the rental and labor costs of the stores occupied rigid expenses, and the cash flow of the brokerage companies was under pressure and the operation was difficult.

"In the absence of trading, 70% brokers clearly indicated that cash flow lasted for six months. Considering that 11% of the brokers chose to be uncertain, according to the average distribution of other options, nearly 80% brokerages were in a difficult position." The survey pointed out.

But not all practitioners are pessimistic. 58 the survey results of brokers in the same city and Anju show that 55.48% of brokers predict that the market will run smoothly after the end of the epidemic, and there will not be much change. Another 20% of the brokers believe that the market will decline. More than 70% of brokers have confidence in the market after the outbreak.

Long rental apartment facing vacancy period

Under the influence of the brokerage industry as a whole, the leasing business, like "thin paper", has greater pressure.

After the Spring Festival, the long rental apartment operator's egg shell apartment was subjected to moral torture under the epidemic. In a number of cities, eggshell apartments have been exposed to the "force majeure" grounds, asking the landlord to remove the rent for 1~3 months. But at the same time, the eggshell has not implemented rent reduction for tenants.

Although the eggshell denied this statement, and said that it was working together with the landlord and tenant to solve the problem, the effect of eggshell reputation after the fermentation was already a fact.

Another parent rental apartment operator has been caught up in the price surge. After the Spring Festival, it was revealed that rents rose substantially in many cities. The increase was more than 15%-30%, which exceeded the range of 2%-10% promised previously.

Since then, CEO freely responded to bear's response. On the one hand, customers changed from long rent to monthly rent or quarterly rent (including service fees), and on the other hand, the price of housing was significantly lower than that of the same lot and similar housing prices. He also stressed that "there is no price manipulation strategy against the epidemic".

The long rental apartment industry has a small profit and has not yet formed an effective business model. Although eggshell apartments have just been listed in the United States, according to the announcement, cash flows from business activities in 2017, 2018 and the first three quarters of 2019 were all negative, -1.15 billion yuan, -11.6 billion yuan and -16.3 billion yuan respectively.

Respondents generally believed that in addition to reputation, the impact of the epidemic on long rental apartment business is inevitable.

A senior practitioner told the economic report in twenty-first Century that the Spring Festival is usually a time to rent out or rent a new lease. Due to the impact of the epidemic, the deadline has begun to lengthen, and many long rental apartment operators have long been vacant. If the scale is small and the financial strength is not strong, this vacancy will bring great pressure to the company's cash flow.

In January 30th, free CEO Xiong Lin said, "after this sudden outbreak, we will suffer heavy losses like most other enterprises, and some enterprises will even be unable to continue."

Zhang Bo also pointed out that for the long rental apartment industry, this year is a very difficult year. The industry will continue to face the pressure of short term vacancy rate increase, overall income reduction and the overall rent rising fatigue. Some companies' "thunder explosion" phenomenon will appear.