Xiu Qiang Shares "11 Lian Board" Puzzle: How Far Can We Rely On Tesla'S "Photovoltaic Story"?

The rise of a Tesla stock market is beyond the understanding of the vast majority of A investors.

Wind statistics show that as of the end of February 18th, Xiu Qiang shares have been hitting the daily limit for 11 consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of nearly 185.86% in the past 10 trading days, becoming the largest share ever since the A shares.

Xiu Qiang shares began trading on a daily basis, starting with its potential supply relationship with Tesla. In January 23rd, Xiu Qiang shares said it was providing PV rooftop glass products in accordance with Tesla's request, and the two sample data had been confirmed.

In the view of analysts, the stock price of Shiqiang shares is higher, and the cooperation with Tesla photovoltaic sector is enough to support its stock price. It still depends on its potential supply scale and the space of Tesla PV plate in the exhibition industry.

According to the twenty-first Century economic news reporter, compared to other businesses, the market share of the PV glass business is relatively small, and business income and gross profit margin have declined compared with the same period last year. In the eyes of many people in the industry, whether the Tesla photovoltaic sector can enter the Chinese automobile business as large as the automobile business, and whether it can bring the performance boost to Xiu Qiang shares remains to be seen.

In the face of doubt, in the evening of February 18th, Xiu Qiang shares admitted in reply to the exchange inquiry that the company has not yet completed the engineering certification of Tesla solar roof glass, and whether there is still uncertainty about whether to receive Tesla solar roof orders.

Xiu Qiang's "photovoltaic story"

Statistics show that, from the 11 trading days between February 4th and February 18th after the Spring Festival, Xiu Qiang shares have risen by 185.86%.

The astonishing increase in this short period is seen as feedback from soo strong shares and Tesla's "fuzzy relationship". As of February 18th, the trend of soo strong shares has been no less than two times of concern and inquiries from the exchanges.

Twenty-first Century economic news reporter noted that the disclosure of strong shares and Tesla relations began at the end of last year's investor Q & A.

In December 25, 2019, investors Xiang Xiuqiang asked whether he could cooperate with Tesla to cooperate with PV glass, and Xiu Qiang shares gave a positive answer. Then in January, Xiu Qiang shares in the interactive platform said that the glass deep-processing products are closely following the needs of Tesla, and pass the inspection qualified.

As one of the key links of Tesla's strategic development of recyclable energy, Tesla's time to cut into PV is 2016.

At that time, Tesla bought the solar City project and launched the "solar rooftop" business for the consumer market. According to the plan, Tesla can install solar tiles on residential roofs and replace traditional tiles to achieve self power supply. In 2019, Tesla launched the third generation of high-power roof tiles.

From the perspective of growth, Tesla's PV business is indeed picking up growth momentum. According to Tesla's four quarter earnings report, the solar business increased by 26%.

"The traditional rooftop photovoltaic is to install photovoltaic panels. Mask's idea is to combine tile and solar panels to achieve aesthetic design, so as to impress the consumer market." A person close to Tesla said, "because the sunshine time is not continuous, solar roofs often need to be used as a power storage device Powerwall, equivalent to storing energy in the daytime to this capacitor, and then supporting the daily power supply."

In some analysts' view, once the Tesla photovoltaic sector is growing rapidly, it is possible that the strong shares that are expected to supply the field will be boosted by its performance, but the bigger story supporting its soaring share price comes from Tesla's entry into China.

Tesla's PV business is indeed looking forward to China. Tesla CEO Mask has released a notice on the social network recently that Tesla's new generation of solar roofs will enter the Chinese and European markets, and the specific entry time will be announced in the near future. In the view of market participants, after Tesla's entry into China, it will also consider the nationalization of the supply chain from the perspective of cost control.

"Similar to Model3, if Tesla's photovoltaic industry will blossom in China, it will inevitably lead to the development of the upstream photovoltaic industry in China." The closer to Tesla said, "if you choose domestic suppliers, North America still has to bear higher tariffs and logistics costs, but if localization, there is indeed the possibility of large-scale supply."

Hidden worries

Based on the background that Tesla photovoltaic business is expected to enter China, the logic seems to be established, but from the fundamentals of the company and the characteristics of the photovoltaic industry, the high share price of soo strong shares still faces multiple uncertainties.

First of all, the scale of the stock business of Xiu Qiang shares is not large. According to Xiu Qiang shares in February 14th, its access to Tesla charging pile and photovoltaic two business income is only 1 million 12 thousand and 200 yuan, accounting for less than 1/1000.

At the same time, the market share of Xiu Qiang's solar glass is also very limited. According to the disclosure of Xiu Qiang's shares on February 18th night, from October 2019 to January 2020, the proportion of sales income of charging pile glass was only 0.14%, 0.13%, 0.42% and 0.64% respectively.

According to Xiu Qiang shares forecast, in 2020 the annual sales of solar rooftop glass products accounted for only 1%-3%. In fact, in the first half of 2019, the income from the photovoltaic glass of Xiu Qiang shares dropped 72.72% year-on-year.

"The main reason for this is that the risk of return in the PV industry has increased. The company will no longer have credit, and it will have to see the payment before delivery, but this mode will also affect sales." A close to the show strong shares, said, "but in the Tesla foreign suppliers, this supply mode has little impact."

At the same time, the gross profit margin of photovoltaic glass is also declining. According to the report of Xiu Qiang stock market, the gross profit rate of PV glass in the first half of 2019 was only 8.81%, down 5.43% compared with the same period last year, while the gross profit margin of the two sector of the same period of education consultation and household glass was 35.74% and 33.66% respectively. In contrast, photovoltaic glass gross profit margin is lower.

Secondly, Xiu Qiang shares in the charging pile business is more indirect supply relationship, the actual size of space may be limited.

Earlier, Xiu Qiang shares returned to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's letter of concern. The company is the only supplier of glass products for Tesla new energy vehicle charging stake in the US.

According to Xiu Qiang shares, in the charging pile business, Xiu Qiang shares glass products first supplied to Tesla's designated manufacturers, and then manufactured by the manufacturer to produce finished products to Tesla, the current order is 10 thousand pieces per month.

A private interest in Xiu Qiang shares pointed out that this is essentially an indirect supply relationship, and there is a big uncertainty in the growth trend of this volume.

"First of all, the glass supply to a factory and the supply of Tesla is in fact an indirect supply relationship. This shows that the moat of the product is not high, followed by the supply of PV glass, because Tesla is currently doing photovoltaic in North America. If China's suppliers are introduced, it must be a supplement to the existing capacity, but the proportion of this supplement may be compared. Relatively limited. " The above private placement said. Prior to the show, the company began to intervene in the Tesla solar roofing project in May 2019, and has already completed the preliminary sample confirmation and has not yet obtained the bulk orders of Tesla solar roof glass. The company is building the first stage production line of solar roof glass. The production line will be completed in May 2020. After the production line is completed, the capacity will be 100 solar roofs per week.

In addition, there is another key uncertainty factor, Tesla's entry into China.

"If we only supply products in North America, the scale of imagination is limited, so Tesla PV is expected to play a role in China." Those close to Tesla pointed out that "but Tesla PV may not have a market in China like automobiles, so that the domestic photovoltaic industry has developed very fast in recent years, and has little difference from the US development." Construction, domestic electricity prices are relatively low, so consumers do not have the power to install such products.

"There is a certain degree of uncertainty both in the proportion of business, the growth momentum, or the supply relationship with Tesla." The above private placement said, "from the current rising prices, the concept of speculation is even bigger."

In February 18th, Xiu Qiang shares questioned the uncertainty behind market expectations. "The company has not yet completed the engineering certification of Tesla solar roof glass. There is still uncertainty about whether to receive Tesla solar roofing orders. The company has only one Tesla family for its solar rooftop glass products." Xiu Qiang shares said.

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