Housing Rebound "Grab Housing" Reproduction Prices Will Not Rise Sharply

Many people did not expect that the rebound in the real estate market from the new crown pneumonia epidemic came so fast.

At 8 o'clock in March 16th, Vanke launched the Vanke City Project in Shenzhen by selling online. The 288 houses sold out that night were sold out in 7 minutes and sales were 299 million.

In March 20th, three real estate projects in Suzhou opened at the same time, and nearly 900 houses were launched. Whether online sales or offline selection of housing projects, almost all "seconds light." In March 24th, Shao Mingxiao, CEO of Longhu group, made a special mention of the "record" of its project: 311 sets of housing sources, which were seized in 10 minutes.

He also said that as one of the regions with faster recovery in the real estate market, the transaction scale in the Yangtze River Delta region has returned to 80% of the normal level.

With the further control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the real estate market is recovering rapidly. Among them, the "rob" behavior appears again, which seems to mean that the backlog of market demand is concentrated on the release, and may promote a retaliatory rebound in the market.

How to interpret this signal? The industry believes that Suzhou's part of the project's super expected sales, in addition to the backlog of factors, there is also the stimulus brought by the new talent policy. As a tier one city, Shenzhen's demand is also strong. Generally speaking, the phenomenon of "grabbing housing" under market warming is of universal significance and particularity. However, the demand structure based on rigid demand and the policy keynote of "housing and non speculation" also make it difficult for the market to appear irrational fluctuations.

Turnover has been restored to around 7.

In addition to the backlog of early demand, Suzhou's "grab the house" grand occasion is also very particular about the choice of the three projects.

Earlier in the day, Suzhou issued a new talent policy. A bachelor's degree (no more than 45 years old) could be settled directly without social security. A College (age less than 35 years old) could settle down for 6 consecutive months.

This also means that the purchase threshold of the Suzhou property market will be further reduced.

Although the policy will be implemented from May 1st this year, its impact on market expectations can not be ignored. A housing firm in Suzhou said to the twenty-first Century economic report that the three or four month of twenty-first Century is a "small spring" in the property market. This year, due to the impact of the new crown epidemic, demand has been backlog. The emergence of the new talent policy has stimulated these needs. She revealed that after the introduction of the new talent policy, the number of telephone visits and on-site visits of the company's projects has increased.

In order to cope with the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, after the Spring Festival, policies have been introduced to support housing prices. By March, the policy direction has gradually extended from rationalization measures to expand the supply and stimulate demand, and the new talent policy is one of them.

Before the new deal in Suzhou, Guangzhou, Shantou and Foshan issued a new talent policy in mid March to further relax the terms of settlement. Similarly, in mid March, Ji'nan relaxed the restriction on conditional purchase, while Luzhou stimulated the market by issuing subsidies for house purchase.

In March 24th, the official micro signal release of Haining Daily said that during the month of the Haining housing Expo held in Haining, the "no Haining household registration population restriction in Haining" was temporarily implemented.

Recently, although there is a precedent for the suspension of the property market policy due to the loose binding rate, Yan Yuejin, director of the think tank center of Shanghai Yi Ju Real Estate Research Institute, still believes that the moderate relaxation of the property policy in the framework of "one city, one policy" will be the trend in the near future. The stimulation of these policies, overlaying the demand for concentrated release during the Spring Festival holiday and the epidemic situation, has become the main driving force for the recent rapid recovery of the property market.

Data from Shanghai Yi Ju research institute show that since the end of 2, the volume of new houses in major cities has gradually rebounded from the bottom. By mid March, the new housing transaction in the national real estate market has recovered to 7 at the beginning of the year.

Second hand housing, Shell Research Institute pointed out that in the chain of 18 cities covered, "nearly four weeks of second-hand housing market volume weekly average of 91.3% growth rate of the ring back to the temperature." Last week (from March 16th to 22nd) volume was equivalent to 75% of last week's weekly average of March. Among them, the volume of transactions in three cities in Guangzhou, Qingdao and Xi'an surpassed that of the same period last year. Shanghai and Chengdu were close to the same period last year, and the recovery in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei was relatively slow.

Shao Mingxiao said at the performance meeting that the real estate market is expected to return to normal level by April this year. Referring to the current situation of further control of the epidemic and the resumption of real estate industry, this view can represent the mainstream view of the industry.

Prices will not rise sharply.

In the case of demand release and market warming, will the phenomenon of retaliatory rebound like "grab the house" become widespread?

Yan Yuejin believes that the "robbing of housing" has its particularity, such as policy stimulus, demand backlog, and even does not exclude Housing enterprises from adopting the "hunger marketing" approach. But overall, with the rapid recovery of supply, there will not be a massive retaliatory rebound in the market.

He said that high inventory and short-term capital chain pressure will force real estate companies to accelerate the push of the market, thereby rapidly increasing the supply of the market. At the policy level, all localities are also offering green light to increase supply.

For example, in March 10th, Dongguan issued relevant documents on "consummation of consumption mechanism and mechanism", emphasizing "simplifying the process of recording housing prices". Changchun is also in March.

23, issued a document to reduce the threshold for pre-sale permit application.

From the statistics of major agencies, since March, the supply scale has increased significantly both in new and second-hand housing.

However, a housing firm in Beijing pointed out to the twenty-first Century economic report that the demand side is more sensitive than the supply side, and has a certain "herd effect". Therefore, in the process of market warming, demand tends to grow rapidly, and short supply is hard to avoid. He said that the recent sale and sale of some new housing projects in Beijing were better than the same period in previous years. Because of the good sales situation, many projects began to cancel the preferential measures before.

According to the twenty-first Century economic report, there is a cancellation of preferential measures in many cities. But in addition to some second-hand housing, the phenomenon of price increase has not yet appeared in a wide range.

Yan Yuejin said that at present, the driving force of rising housing prices does exist. Among them, the new housing market because of the existence of price limits and other measures, the price is difficult to rise sharply. In contrast, second-hand housing prices are more likely to rise.

But he also pointed out that even if the future market really "small spring", prices will not rise sharply. Because in recent years, under the continuous control, the rigid demand has been completed.

As the main body of the current demand structure, this part of the demand is more rational and sensitive to price changes, and they will not support the sharp rise in house prices. At the same time, "

Under the control of housing and not speculation, the control policies will not be loosed in a large scope, and there is no room for room prices to rise substantially. (Editor: Zhang Xing)

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