The Final Outcome Of OPEC'S Reduction Is Still In Suspense. After The Short-Term Market, The Imbalance Between Supply And Demand Is Still The Main Contradiction In The Market.

Overview of Zhou Du industrial chain operation (04.02-04.09)

Polyester production and marketing on 2-4 April Obvious volume They reached 300%, 240% and 340% respectively. Driven by the retaliatory rebound of crude oil, the market bottom up sentiment has obviously increased. But then production and sales fell rapidly. Downstream weaving, adding bombs and traders basically finished the bottom stock. After that, Short term procurement needs are small. End Four month Nine It is estimated that there are more days in the polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces. Fifteen ~ Twenty-three day 。 Estimate Short term polyester price range is narrow.

In terms of production efficiency, Silk prices rebounded sharply this week, the overall profit margins of all kinds of theoretical cash flow of polyester. Obvious growth , FDY and POY turn around deficits, and DTY profits expand.

Half light Slice transaction price This week rose sharply. Around 8.88% 。 Slice theory cash flow earnings also expanded correspondingly. Short term slice prices are expected to be stable. Later, it focuses on the trend of polyester raw materials, device dynamics and downstream demand changes.

This week, international oil prices fluctuated sharply, plunged sharply. 。 Although the OPEC+ countries have reached a draft reduction agreement, the market confidence has been hit hard by the fact that the conference has not discussed the situation of 20 million barrels / day reduction in production. OPEC+ will reduce production from 10 million barrels per day to two months from May 1, 2020, and reduce output from 8 million barrels per day to the end of this year from July, and 6 million barrels per day from April 22, 2022 January 2021 to April 22, 2022. But the US has yet to say whether to participate in production cuts. Short-term oil prices are expected to remain wide. Focus on the international economic situation and geopolitical impact.

Good fundamentals:

1. OPEC+ said in a statement that it had cut production from 10 million barrels per day from May 1, 2020, the first round of production reduction for two months, and 8 million barrels per day from December to December, and 6 million barrels / day April 2022 to April 2022 since January 2021.

2. OPEC+ draft reduction agreement: Russia and Saudi Arabia will reduce production by 2 million 500 thousand barrels per day in 5-6 months; Iraq will reduce output by 1 million 60 thousand barrels per day in 5-6 months; the United Arab Emirates will reduce production by 720 thousand barrels per day in 5-6 months; Kuwait will reduce production by 640 thousand barrels per day in 5-6 months; Kazakhstan and Nigeria will reduce production by 400 thousand barrels per day in 5-6 months; The amount will be decided tomorrow. The production reduction agreement signed today is valid until the end of 2022, but it needs to undergo a reconsideration in December 2021.

3. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released a report on Wednesday that inventories of EIA refined oil increased by 476 thousand barrels last week, down from the expected 697 thousand barrels.

Fundamental negative factors:

1. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released a report on Wednesday that crude oil inventories rose 15 million 177 thousand barrels last week, with an expected value of 9 million 699 thousand barrels. Last week, gasoline inventories increased by 10 million 497 thousand barrels, much higher than those of 5 million 901 thousand barrels before. The agency's Tuesday outlook report shows that the WTI crude oil price in 2020 is expected to be 29.34 US dollars / barrel, which was expected to be 38.19 US dollars / barrel, and WTI crude oil price is expected in 2021. The price was $41.12 / barrel, which was expected to be $50.36 / barrel. It was estimated that the price of Brent crude oil in 2020 was $33.04 / barrel, after which it was expected to be 43.30 dollars / barrel. In 2021, the price of Brent crude oil was 45.62 US dollars / barrel, which was expected to be 55.36 US dollars / barrel.

US President Trump hinted that tariffs on foreign oil imports should be imposed, so that efforts to persuade American Oil Co to cut production would end in the weekend and further pressure on oil prices outside the United States.

Naphtha rebounded this week 6.21%, P X prices also rose 7.24% this week. Abroad, the epidemic is still grim, the panic in the financial market is diffuse, and the industry has a strong risk aversion. PX itself is also not optimistic. The PX device basically maintains normal operation, and the overall supply is excessive, while the terminal demand is still weak. The export of polyester products is not smooth, but considering that the price of PX has been low, PX market is expected to be weak shocks. 。 Focus on domestic PX installations, crude oil and PTA trend.

This week Spot price of PTA rose by about 7%. PTA total social inventory reached a high level and continued to rise. With the recent rise in the operating rate of the industry, there is still a lot of pressure on the latter. Recently, the PTA industry starts up to 86.4%. In April 8th, there were two sets of installation load. One of them was located in the northeast, with a capacity of 2 million 500 thousand tons. Another set of 1 million 400 thousand ton capacity plant was located in East China, after which the load was 5. In April 9th, 600 thousand tons of HP petrochemical production line was restarted, and it will be released in the near future. Downstream demand, the hot situation of production and marketing has not been sustained. The load of the terminal weaving and loading increased obviously. PTA daily inventory depends largely on the downstream supply side's subsequent reduction. The supply and demand side is weak for a while, and short-term price trends are closely following the trend of crude oil. Recommended attention Macroeconomic situation The load and terminal demand changes of the industrial chain.

Glycol Price Rising this week 6.18% 。 On the supply side of ethylene glycol, the coal production capacity load continued downward in April 9th. According to the statistics, the coal production load level was below 50%, and the total load of the industry was about 6. Coal MEG production capacity continued to decline, to the overall pressure on the supply side to a certain degree of relaxation. However, the trend of MEG supply and demand has not yet come to an inflection point, and the speed of storage has not slowed down. In the short term, crude oil price is still the most important factor affecting the price of EG. Focus on the operation of the industry and the atmosphere of bulk commodities.

Note: the data range of this report is 2020/04/02-2020/04/09. If there is any deficiency, please correct it.