Can We Win The Black Swan In The Second Half Of The Year?

Editor's note:

A sudden outbreak not only has a profound impact on China's industrial chain and supply chain, but also has a huge impact on the textile and garment industry. Faced with a series of challenges such as foreign trade disruption, domestic demand and sales decline, industries and enterprises have begun to help themselves and break through in different ways while facing great pressure.

How to deal with the situation that has not been changed for a hundred years, find a way out in the fog, and re energize? At the moment, accurate understanding, scientific contingency, initiative change, knowing the bright future, strengthening confidence and catching and creating opportunities from the immediate crisis and immediate difficulties are the counterattack paths for the innovation of Chinese textile industry under the epidemic.

To overcome the epidemic situation and make further progress, confidence can not be reduced, and the goal of textile power can not be changed.

In order to better help enterprises to see the nature through change and follow the trend, China Textile Magazine has launched a series of special reports on "grasping opportunities and confidence", focusing on the two markets of foreign trade and domestic demand, starting from the different dimensions of industries and enterprises, and taking the pulse of the current development of textile industry to suit the remedy to the case, planning ahead of time, and developing high-quality development.

In recent years, because of the characteristics of soft, comfortable, body fitted and elastic, knitted garments have been favored by consumers, especially the European and American markets. Under the impetus of new technologies and new technologies, knitted products are becoming wider and wider, involving more and more fields, and increasing the proportion of industries.

Affected by the epidemic, international brands such as Zara, H&M and UNIQLO, which are mainly knitted fabrics, have been closed up, refunded or delayed delivery with close cooperation with Chinese foundries. Even some of the domestic leisure operation brands have been losing a lot of sales and even losing money. Despite the remarkable achievements of knitting cluster and enterprise online breakout, enterprises still feel "pressure mountain" in the face of the unknown international situation and the slow recovery market.

Leisure sports brand performance decline

Downward pressure on knitting industry in the first quarter

Due to the impact of the epidemic, Zara, H&M, UNIQLO, Nike, Adidas and other international brands that have been working closely with Chinese manufacturers this year have closed down, refunded or delayed delivery, and even maintained a high level of sales in the past. If Zara has closed 3785 stores worldwide, its Spanish stores have been closed; H&M has closed all stores in nearly ten countries and regions in Italy, Poland and Czech; and the fast retailing group of UNIQLO parent company has temporarily closed all its 50 stores in the United States. Sales, Nike in the Greater China region for 5 and a half years (22 quarters) revenue maintained double-digit growth, now in the first quarter (December 1, 2019 -2020 February 29th) also appeared "brake", Greater China revenue fell 5% (excluding exchange rate factor 4%). Because of the high dependence on external demand of knitting enterprises, enterprise pressure is constantly emerging.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, 1-3 months, the textile enterprises completed 4 billion 618 million 166 thousand and 900 garment production, a year-on-year reduction of 20.29%, of which 2 billion 255 million 185 thousand and 900 were knitted garments, representing a decrease of 23.73% over the same period. 1-3 months, knitted fabric 2110 family regulation, the main business income of the company was 48 billion 546 million yuan, a decrease of 23.64% compared with the same period last year, the total profit was 1 billion 927 million yuan, a decrease of 610 million yuan compared with the same period last year. The 3679 main businesses of knitted garments regulated 83 billion 406 million yuan in the main business, 21.47% lower than the same period last year, and the total profit was 2 billion 970 million yuan, a decrease of 1 billion 326 million yuan compared with the same period last year.

Not only international brands, but also domestic leisure sports brands such as Semir, Metersbonwe, Giordano, Anta, Lining, and 31st degree, etc., have all seen a decline in sales. Among them, Semir achieved 2 billion 738 million yuan in revenue in the first quarter, a decrease of 33.51% compared to the same period last year, and Metersbonwe achieved a profit of 2 billion 738 million yuan, a decrease of 33.51% compared with the same period last year, a loss of 1500-2500 billion yuan in the first quarter, a 34.6% decline in the first quarter of sales of Giordano, a decrease of 33% at a fixed exchange rate, and a decrease of 20% to 25% in Anta's sales last year. Lining's offline channel (including retail and wholesale) was recorded. 20%-30% fell at a low level; the retail sales of 331 degrees were down by 25%-30% compared with the same period last year. This shows that the first quarter of the leisure sports brand has been a great impact.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats and needle textiles decreased by 32.2% in the first quarter compared with the same period last year, while online retail sales decreased by 15.1% compared with the same period last year, down 35.5 and 34.2 percentage points respectively from the same period last year. Experts say that although the domestic epidemic has been effectively controlled and consumption is being restarted, with the severe situation in Europe, the knitting enterprises which mainly rely on foreign trade or generation processing will not have a good time in the short term. Enterprises must be psychologically prepared.

Orders to reduce foreign trade situation is grim

Pressure on enterprises far exceeds expectations

"Every March and April is the peak month for foreign trade factories, but now our orders are at the end of June. If there are no more orders, thousands of workers in the factory may have to take a vacation. I can't sleep in the rush hour. If I stop working, the company will lose hundreds of thousands of dollars a day. Chief executive of a large knitted fabric production company complained repeatedly. He said that the company mainly exported to Europe and the United States. Most of its customers were international famous brands such as sportswear, casual wear, pajamas and underwear. Many brands began to cancel orders and delay delivery. "Now we have to start buying the domestic market. No matter how big the small bills are, we can keep on building."

Although the fast selling group of Japan's fast fashion giant UNIQLO said recently that the company promised to arrange payment for completed orders and production orders, the policy will not change until the end of the epidemic. It even promised: "suppliers will purchase relevant fabrics or materials to fulfill our orders, and if we cancel the order, we will also provide compensation." But in fact, under the epidemic, UNIQLO once closed hundreds of stores in more than 270 domestic stores and 50 stores in the United States, and orders were delayed or cancelled in varying degrees. Among them, there are as many as 161 cooperative enterprises in China. It is not hard to foresee that these enterprises will be affected more or less.

According to customs data, China's textile and apparel exports totaled US $47 billion 880 million in the first quarter, down 17.8% from the same period last year. In 1-2 months, the export of knitted fabrics was 2 billion 18 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 16.69%, and the export of knitted garments was US $6 billion 296 million, down 19.14% from the same period last year. With the spread of the global epidemic, knitting foreign trade enterprises are under increasing pressure.

At present, many small and medium-sized enterprises have no single connection. Most of the large enterprises now produce most of them last year's orders. "Even large enterprises like Shenzhou are facing orders crisis, let alone small businesses like ours." Similarly, the boss of a knitted garment enterprise, which is also a representative of the processing industry, revealed that in the short term, enterprises must make preparations for a protracted war with the epidemic situation, take advantage of the epidemic situation, and speed up transformation and upgrading, and try to shift risks and multichannel layout.

"Now is not the most difficult time for enterprises. With the spread of epidemics abroad, the consumption disruption caused by the epidemic, the impact of reduced orders will be concentrated in June. Even if the situation can be quickly controlled, the textile industry's exports in the two quarter will not be ideal. However, people in the industry have said that although the epidemic is still spreading, they are full of confidence in the fight against the epidemic and full of hope for the future development of the industry.

Make efforts to accelerate transformation

Online empowerment channel breakthrough

A bright moon shines on Kyushu. Just when many enterprises complain and complain four times, Dongguan star super Textile Technology Co., Ltd. has a busy scene, R & D department, merchandising department and quality inspection department. All departments are in full range of posts, perform their duties, or carry out R & D and testing products by means of computer calculation data, or the operation of electronic fabric strength machines. The performance of enterprises has risen unexpectedly by 20%.

"It depends on our group's early deployment and careful planning. In order to enhance the efficiency of our enterprises, we have carried out the upgrading and upgrading of equipment at great cost. Now every process is greatly reduced by the mechanized operation, and 1 workers can operate 12 sets of equipment." Liu Hanxing, general manager of star super textile, said that in addition to the meticulous management, the electronic scale, which is 1/10000 accurate to the decimal point, is still a clear automatic monitoring system. All data collection, capturing trends, research and development, experiments, and promotion, delivery of businesses, and after-sales service have achieved automation, intelligence and trust. These benefits not only win business opportunities for enterprises, but also enhance their ability to resist risks.

Coincidentally, the head of state of Ji'nan is pushing the installation of a large number of knitting dyeing and finishing equipment under the pressure of the epidemic. The Jiyang head of state industrial park, which has attracted much attention from the industry, is also working hard to speed up the construction. It is expected that the commissioning conditions will be formed before the end of July. "This installation involves 22 high temperature and high pressure dyeing machines and 11 self-developed small bath dyeing machines, which are suitable for pure cotton, polyester cotton, chemical fiber fabrics and knitted fabrics of different thickness. Compared with the previous stage, the product area will expand significantly and market applicability will be stronger. " In this regard, the head of Ji'nan's head of state said: "the crisis also breeds business opportunities. Now is the best opportunity for enterprises to work hard and speed up transformation and upgrading. In the future, the park will build an intelligent environmental protection production system as a whole to enhance its core competitiveness.

Although the epidemic disrupted the original production rhythm and work plan of the enterprise, the sales fell to "freezing point" once, but this did not affect the determination and confidence of the enterprises to rescue themselves and break through. Instead, it triggered the cloud publishing, online transactions, and net red live broadcast because of the epidemic. And other channels to sell new models. Online empowerment has brought new vitality to the industry and enterprises.

In order to reduce the impact of the epidemic, the sweater cluster launched Dalang's "big live weaving month" campaign in March, attracting more than 200 enterprises to participate. Even Huang Zhaodong, deputy director of Dongguan Business Bureau and vice mayor of Dongguan Town, Dalang Town, China's Zeng Yue, also went into the broadcast room to introduce the development of Dalang's local related industries to the network users and recommend high-quality single products. Through the joint big business platform, the company opened a green channel for enterprises, and reduced the cost and threshold of enterprises' electric shock by using live broadcasting operation tools. It not only built a new channel for resuming work and producing new live products for the physical stores of the wool textile business circle, but also borrowed the new mode of electricity supplier + live broadcast or social networking, which has brought the rapid recovery of the big wool weaving industry.

With the boom of the live broadcast of the electronic commerce, today, not only is the net red, but many clusters of local government leaders have also entered the live room. In recent days, the mayor of Tongxiang has been able to swim in the live room and have a close dialogue with fans, so that many people understand the Pu Yuan sweater industry intuitively. The vivid and interesting form of live broadcast has also made online buyers see the strong strength of the Pu Industrial knitting belt. In the live room of the cloud Shopping Festival in Jiaxing, Pan Minfang, the Standing Committee of the Tongxiang Municipal Committee and the propaganda minister, are bringing five special Tongxiang products. We all have a deep impression on this product, with all wool sleeveless embroidered dress made by Zhejiang shallow autumn knitwear Co., Ltd. According to the latest logistics data released by the Pu logistics park during the May 1, the consignment volume of the Pu Yi sweater market during the May 1st period increased by 18% compared with the same period in 2019, and the discharge volume increased by 20% over the same period in 2019, which greatly boosted the confidence of the industry and enterprises to "recover".

In response to the impact of the epidemic, Yang Jizhao, former vice chairman of the China Textile Industry Federation, said in an interview with reporters that under the epidemic situation, knitting enterprises generally suffered some economic losses, and even a fatal blow to some small and medium-sized enterprises. However, excellent enterprises could draw inspiration from them and better layout the future. "This epidemic is like a big test, which tests the quick response ability of enterprises. If we want to turn the crisis into a machine, we must have a keen market sense of smell and innovation, and the sales under the current line have been hit hard. We should speed up the use of new retail tools such as social networking, community and live broadcast, and open up the whole sales marketing. At the same time, we must speed up the training and construction of professionals. Talents are the core assets of enterprises. I believe that through the baptism of the storm and the practice of practicing internal strength, the knitting enterprises that will meet difficulties will surely embrace the brand new world.