Economic Data For April: Positive Signals On Consumption And Investment Levels

This week ushered in intensive disclosure of monthly economic data. Today we will focus on data.

First look at the CPI and PPI just announced this morning, of which the CPI in April, that is, the consumer price index continued to decline, and the year-on-year rate of decline has further dropped. For the current situation, this will give the central bank monetary policy counter cyclical adjustment to provide more room for maneuver. In addition, PPI, that is, the producer price index ratio and the year-on-year decline, both expand. This reflects the continuing decline in international commodity prices, and on the other hand, confirms the relative downturn in demand side, and again illustrates the necessity for macroeconomic policy to strengthen counter cyclical regulation.

Speaking of this, you may think of the April financial statistics released by the central bank yesterday. Among them, the balance of the broad money (M2) reached 11.1% year-on-year, the highest since 2017, while the balance of narrow money (M1) increased by 5.5% compared to the same period last year, also hitting the new high since July 2018.

Then, M1 and M2 year-on-year growth rate hit a new high level, what does it mean? I think this intuitively illustrates the reasonable abundance of liquidity under the current situation, which shows that monetary policy is more effective in hedging the epidemic situation, creating an appropriate monetary and financial environment for effective prevention and control of the epidemic situation and supporting the recovery and development of the real economy.

Having finished the macro data, let's talk about the two mesoscopic industry data released in these two days.

The first data is about the construction machinery industry: in April, the sales volume of excavators in the 25 excavator manufacturers included in statistics increased by nearly 60% over the same period last year. Before our program, we also reported the excavator index made by big data and Internet of things technology. The change of this index reflects that the operating rate of all construction projects has been restored to the level before the epidemic.

The second data is about the automotive industry. In April, the growth of automobile production and sales in China increased by 2.3% and 4.4% respectively. This is the first year-on-year growth in automobile production and sales in single month this year, and sales volume has ended 21 consecutive months of decline. We know that cars have always occupied a large proportion in the consumption of residents. As far as possible, in April, the demand for car sales increased year by year, and the sustainability of the warming needs to be observed. However, this is a positive signal for stimulating consumption.

Thus, in the context of shrinking external demand, consumption and investment levels are transmitting positive signals, and they will again become the basic support for China's economy. With the implementation of monetary policy, fiscal policy and industrial policy combination, the short-term challenges can not change the fundamentals of China's economic stability, long-term improvement and high quality development.