Transnational Tourism Is Still Being Halted: The "Five Ones" Of International Routes Are Waiting To Be Cracked.

Recently, many international airlines such as Thailand international airlines and Asiana Airlines have proposed to resume international routes, including many Chinese routes. In May 14th, the economic report in twenty-first Century confirmed to the United Airlines that the United Airlines has indeed proposed to the CAAC that it will resume the Beijing, Shanghai and Chengdu shipping points in June, and has not yet received the approval of the CAAC. According to incomplete statistics of the civil aviation resource network, 10 airlines intend to re engage the passenger flights in the Chinese market between May and July.

International airlines want to normalize their Chinese routes. They need to break the "five one" policy. Zhijie, a senior civil aviation insider, told reporters that at present, the "five one" policy of the civil aviation industry should last at least 1-2 months. Therefore, foreign airlines can not fully resume the Chinese routes, and can only fly one company a week at most. Another aviation expert, Qi Qi, thinks that it is difficult for foreign airlines to realize the resumption of China's Air Routes in June and July, and that international routes will be strictly controlled in the short term, and individual regional markets will be released.

Benefit driven redevelopment

Under the dual effects of global slowdown and economic pressure, governments have lifted the ban to reopen the border, and more and more airlines have launched new flight plans to prepare for more capacity. Many airlines intend to resume their flights to China.

Korean air is expected to resume 32 routes from more than 110 international routes in June 1st, including Washington, Seattle, Beijing, Shenyang, Shanghai Pudong, Guangzhou, Mudanjiang, Qingdao, Yanji, Ulan Bator, Ulan Bator, Ulan Bator and so on.

Asiana Airlines said on 14 July that it will resume operation of international routes such as the Americas, Southeast Asia and China, which are temporarily suspended or reduced by the new crown pneumonia outbreak from June.

British Airways plans to resume some flights to the US, India, Japan, Singapore, Canada and China Hongkong in June. The airline also intends to re navigate two air points in Shanghai and Beijing. According to the flight information on its official website, the earliest flight from London to Shanghai Pudong Airport is in June 9th, and the flight to Beijing Daxing airport is available from June 20th.

Lufthansa group has resumed more capacity since the beginning of June. Its Lufthansa, European wing and Swiss International Airlines will resume 106 flights. Swiss International Aviation said it plans to recover about 15% of its flights in June, with about 140 flights a week from Zurich to 30 destinations in Europe and 40 flights from Geneva. Lufthansa and Swiss airlines are currently showing sale in the official website of the flight to Beijing and Shanghai in June. So far, Swiss Airlines's earliest Chinese flight is in June 7th.

In addition to the above, we also have plans to resume flights to China, including United Airlines, Air France, Canada, Qatar, Turkey airlines and Virgin Atlantic. United Airlines insiders confirmed to the twenty-first Century economic report that although the application for re flight has not been approved, these Chinese flights have been open to the system and sales have long been full. Another international shipping division in China told reporters that at present, all shipping divisions are actively preparing for re sailing, and agents are rushing to sell tickets. All of them are betting on whether the "five one" policy will be changed after May 31st.

The so-called "five one" policy means that 1 Airlines maintain 1 routes in 1 countries and do not exceed 1 classes in 1 weeks. This is the regulation issued by the Civil Aviation Administration in March 26th on the notice of continuing to reduce the number of international passenger flights during the epidemic prevention and control period. In order to control the pressure on the overseas input of the epidemic situation, the volume of international passenger flights is greatly reduced. The measure played a key role in stabilizing domestic epidemic situation. However, the notice is a temporary measure which was originally implemented until May 31st.

Lin Zhijie said that it is possible and beneficial for foreign airlines to resume international routes in China. Because China's "five one" policy, in fact, the international transport capacity has been reduced to two percent of the original, and the market is in short supply. Overseas students are unable to get a return ticket, and the economy class may have to buy three hundred million and fifty thousand tickets. At this time, foreign airlines resume international routes, at least flights can make money. The other is that there are basically no major problems in China's current epidemic prevention and control, only sporadic diagnosis. Therefore, at this time, they need not worry about imported cases at least, and there will be no greater pressure on their epidemic prevention and control.

"One of the reasons why China's airline industry is resumed is interest driven." Qi Qi pointed out that at present, in addition to overseas students and people working overseas, many overseas Chinese also want to return to avoid the epidemic. But because of the "five one" policy, the seats are tight, the full price tickets are all booked, and Chinese routes are the only profitable routes, so many international air cargo companies hope to open the China route.

Some people related to civil aviation also told reporters that in the past two months, a large number of requests for return tickets were sent through various channels every day. "At present, the seats and charter flights of international flights are far from meeting the demand." The overseas student returned less than 1/10, he said.

According to the statistics of the CAAC, from March 29th to April 29th, 17 domestic airlines, such as Air China, Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines, 25 foreign airlines, including Korea, Ana, Malaysia airlines and Ethiopia airlines, and 42 foreign and domestic airlines carried out 457 classes of international passenger transport and charter flights from 39 countries, including Japan, Korea, the United States and Canada. 052 people.

The international passenger transport plan in May will be further adjusted and optimized. Up to now, there are 448 classes of international passenger flights in May, averaging 101 classes a week, averaging 14 classes each day, involving 35 countries, 43 foreign cities and 24 domestic cities.

Strictly controlled or will continue

"But it is not always possible for China to let go of international routes." Qi Qi believes that the epidemic control is still on the high voltage line before the epidemic situation is stable. In order to prevent the two outbreaks of domestic outbreaks caused by imported cases, and to smooth the resumption of resumption of production, the policy of strict control of international routes will still be maintained in the near future. It will only be released in some areas or may consolidate the results of epidemic prevention.

For example, China and South Korea started the "fast track" of personnel exchanges in May 1st. Important business, logistics, production and technical services and other urgent personnel in China and South Korea can apply for visas after performing the necessary administrative examination and approval procedures of the other countries. After being qualified by health monitoring and quarantine inspection, they can significantly shorten the isolation time after entry.

It is reported that the "shortcut" is applicable to the whole province of Korea and 10 provinces and cities in China. As a result, Asiana and Korean air have introduced many Chinese routes. Among them, Asiana intends to resume flights from 14 cities in China from June onwards. And Korean Air intends to resume 9 routes from all cities in China from June onwards.

Qi Qi believes that the global trend of global economic globalization may be more obvious or more regional. From a realistic point of view, it is also feasible to take the lead to achieve interoperability in the region. Therefore, the epidemic control is relatively ideal and peaceful, and the economic exchanges are relatively close. Regions with greater economic returns than those in the Northeast Asian region, or Japan and South Korea, will take the lead in being considered by the Chinese government to open international routes. Secondly, with the control of epidemic situation, the countries along the "one belt and one road" will be open one after another, and the Americas may be in the final consideration.

On May 8th, Liu Xiaoming, Vice Minister of communications, said in an interview with the twenty-first Century economic report that there is no conclusion on the normalization of international routes, and the specific matters need to be determined by the civil aviation authority and the Ministry of foreign affairs. In May 15th, the head of the CAAC reconfirmed to the economic report in twenty-first Century that the civil aviation authority is unable to give a reply at present. United Airlines insiders say it will not exceed the end of May at the latest and will eventually bear fruit.

International tourism is hard to pick up.

Despite the fact that the epidemic has not yet ended and international routes have not resumed, many tourism bureaus can not wait to welcome the arrival of tourists. Flying pig tourism revealed that on May 13th -17, the representatives of Serbia, France, Paris, Finland, Germany and the UK Tourism Bureau came to the Taobao pig live room to lobby their Chinese tourists.

However, the latest report of the IATA is pessimistic, slow economic activity and relaxation of travel restrictions. The outbreak of the epidemic may rebound, leading to the extension of the blockade period to the third quarter, further postponing the recovery of air travel. Under such circumstances, global air passenger demand in 2021 may be 34% lower than the level in 2019, 41% lower than the 2021 level previously predicted.

The International Air Transport Association says it is expected that the demand for air passenger transport will not exceed the level of 2019 until 2023. But even by 2025, global passenger demand is expected to be 10% lower than previous forecasts.

Transportation is the foundation of tourism. Without cross border passenger flow, international tourism will be very bleak this year. The World Tourism Organization said recently that it is estimated that the scale of cross-border tourism in 2020 may be reduced by 60% to 80%, leading to losses of 910 billion to 1 trillion and 200 billion US dollars in tourism industry and endangering the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people.

When cross-border tourism is hard to recover, countries can only save themselves through the domestic market. China's domestic aviation tourism market rebounded significantly, especially in the aviation market. Xiong Jie, director of the civil aviation bureau's spokesman and aviation safety office, said in May 13th that civil aviation completed 16 million 715 thousand passenger trips in April, down 68.5% compared to the same period last year, and the decline narrowed by 3.2 percentage points from last month. The growth of cargo data has become a rare highlight. In April, Chinese and foreign airlines carried out 1574 regular cargo flights per week on average, an increase of 55.2% over that before the epidemic. The growth rate in May will be faster. In the first two weeks of May, Chinese and foreign airlines will carry out 2365 regular cargo flights per week, 133.2% more than before the epidemic.

Qi Qi believes that the recovery rhythm of the civil aviation market is divided into the domestic market and the international market. All countries may be significantly better than the international market in the domestic aviation market. China is no exception. According to the current recovery trend, the recovery of the domestic aviation market will be great in 6-7. After the "two sessions", the whole economy will have stronger stimulus policies to bring the aviation market strong recovery. But to maintain this recovery momentum, we need to strictly control the risk of foreign input. Therefore, Qi Qi believes that the possibility of normalization of international routes in June and July is very low, which will only increase flights and flights to meet the needs of evacuees. The demand recovery of international tourism will be slower than that of evacuees.

?