The Cotton Market Is Slowing Down, Orders For Domestic Demand Are Insufficient, Stocks Are Small, And Prices Are Expected To Be Stable.

As for the epidemic situation, as of Beijing time in June 14th, the total number of confirmed cases reached 7787959 cases and 427827 cases died. The total number of confirmed cases in the United States reached 2142224 cases and 117527 cases died. The director general of the World Health Organization, Tan Desai, told reporters at the press conference that nearly 7 million new crown cases were reported to the organization and nearly 400 thousand died. Although the situation in Europe is improving, the global epidemic is deteriorating. Over the past 10 days, 9 days have seen more than 100 thousand new cases reported by who to the World Health Organization, while 136 thousand cases on 7 days are the highest on a single day to date.

Overseas, according to the official data released recently, a sample survey conducted by Italy handicraft sector and the National Alliance of small and medium enterprises CNA about 14000 enterprises during the epidemic revealed a possible crisis involving multiple industries. Compared with 2019, sales of some industries in Italy will be reduced by more than half: tourism industry is expected to fall by 66.3%, fashion industry and trade industry will fall by 56.7% and 54% respectively, compared with the smaller commercial service industry (-40%). Recently, the Kampuchea Garment Manufacturers Association, the Kampuchea Footwear Association and the Kampuchea European Union Chamber of Commerce indicated that the new crown pneumonia epidemic had disrupted production activities and reduced global demand, causing serious losses to Kampuchea's clothing, shoemaking and travel products manufacturing industries. Production activities in 250 garment enterprises in Kampuchea were stagnant and more than 130 thousand workers were unemployed.

Domestic situation, the May national CPI (consumer price index) and PPI (producer price index) released by the National Bureau of statistics in June 10th showed that CPI rose 2.4% over the same period, or 0.9 percentage points from last month, while PPI dropped 3.7% compared with the same period last year, a 0.6 percentage point increase from last month. On average 1-5 months, CPI rose 4.1% over the same period last year. In May, the domestic epidemic situation was generally stable. The resumption of work and resumption of production and the resumption of business resumed in an orderly manner. The supply and demand of the market improved further. CPI fell by 0.8% compared with the previous month, and the decrease was narrowed by 0.1 percentage points from last month.

Upper reaches: Cotton spot prices rose slightly after this week, and spot trading improved slightly. Viscose staple fiber prices are slightly loose, production and marketing in general. This week direct spinning polyester short cost support weakened, sales fade.

Yarn: cotton yarn market turnover is light, can still maintain the goods, spinning enterprises to let more stock. This week, with the price of polyester and short materials rising, the price of pure polyester yarn mill increased slightly, and the goods were generally carried. The cotton yarn market is light, and the atmosphere in the off-season is obvious.

Downstream: this week, the load of gray cloth slipped compared with last week, and stocks rose slightly.

Generally speaking, the price of pure cotton yarn has dropped steadily this week, the price of pure polyester yarn and cotton viscose yarn is steady, the price of polyester cotton yarn is rising, and the price of human cotton yarn and polyester viscose yarn has dropped.

[weekly market overview]

　　 The price of pure cotton yarn has dropped steadily this week, the price of pure polyester yarn and cotton viscose yarn is steady, the price of polyester cotton yarn is rising, and the price of cotton yarn and polyester viscose yarn has dropped. Inventory of cotton yarn continued to rise near 44%.

　　 In terms of yarn this week, export orders recovered slowly, and the overall orders of spinning enterprises were insufficient, shipping mentality was the main, and prices were stable and weak. According to the specific varieties, air spinning: air spinning pure cotton yarn orders are light, and textile companies make more inventory. Conventional yarn: regular combed pure cotton yarn this week, the goods are still available, the speed is slowing down, the price is difficult to rise, the overall stock of combed pure cotton yarn is not low, the spinning enterprise mentality is mainly shipped, and there is a partial low price dumping phenomenon. High count yarn: high demand pure cotton yarn export demand has not yet been restored, domestic market digestion is limited, price stability is weak and dominant.

　　 Grey fabric market, according to China Textile City yard volume statistics, the total volume of gray fabric sales this week, 38 million 360 thousand meters, an increase of 8 million 360 thousand meters compared to last week. Among them, the chemical fiber cloth this week clinch a deal 24 million 620 thousand meters, account for 64.1% of total sales volume, the whole cotton cloth clinch a deal 2 million 600 thousand meters, account for 6.7% of total sales, the cotton cloth is sold 4 million 90 thousand meters, account for 10.67% of total sales volume. Compared with last week, grey fabric inventory increased slightly this week.

Pricing structure and arbitrage analysis

　　 As of June 12th, domestic CY C32 price was 18700 yuan / ton (0), India C32S price 18300 yuan / ton (0), price difference 400, Vietnam jet C32S price 18480 yuan / ton (0), price difference 220, no arbitrage opportunities.

[technical analysis]

　　 This week cotton yarn CY009 contract continued horizontal finishing, shock interval 17800-19800 yuan / ton, the highest price 19760 yuan / ton, the lowest price 19230 yuan / ton. The CY009 contract held 8507 in June 12th, an increase of 36 compared with the previous trading day.

[outlook]

This week cotton yarn CY009 contract continued horizontal finishing, shock interval 17800-19800 yuan / ton, the highest price 19760 yuan / ton, the lowest price 19230 yuan / ton. In the off-season, the pure cotton yarn market has slowed down, the turnover power is slightly insufficient, the domestic demand is limited, and the stock pressure is increasing. Cotton yarn prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. It is advisable for speculators to wait and see. (for reference only)