Photovoltaic Industry "Hot And Hot": Rush To Install, Expand Production Tide Recurrence

Recently, with the declaration of electricity price in 2020 in the provinces and municipalities of China, the overall scale of PV bidding projects this year is showing. According to statistics, more than 20 provinces and municipalities have determined that the total scale of participation in bidding is more than 32GW. Among them, the scale of bidding in Hebei, Jiangxi and Ningxia is far more than that of the local grid.

But the "four wars" bidding project is expected to boost demand for domestic PV industry in the second half of the year. In the first half of this year, the demand for domestic and international market was affected by the epidemic, and the price of industrial chain was explored. The industry pointed out that with the resumption of overseas market resumption, the domestic bidding time limit, the three and fourth quarter domestic PV installed demand is high.

At the same time, the new wave of expansion caused by the photovoltaic companies such as orient Risheng, Follett and Oriental hope has brought the industrial fever to a climax. The intensive release of these expansion plans will once again lead to the "hot and dry" of the industrial chain.

Demand rebounded in the second half

There are some indications that the demand for PV market is booming in the second half of this year.

First of all, domestic component exports are warming up, and overseas market demand is constantly recovering. According to the latest data released by the customs, domestic components exported about 5.97GW in May, down 0.95% compared to the same period last year, but the growth rate was 9.34%. In the past five months, the export volume of domestic component exports continued to narrow.

Secondly, "rush to install the tide" is happening now. According to the data released by the State Energy Administration in June 15th, the total installed capacity of household photovoltaic projects added to the national subsidy scale in May was 5.96GW, a 47.89% increase over April. This is after April, the domestic household market once again refreshed this month's installed capacity. Up to the first 5 months of this year, the total installed capacity of domestic PV has reached 12.59GW.

The overseas market is gradually warming up and superimposed on the emergence of "rush to install the tide", making the domestic and international PV industry boom in three and fourth quarter much anticipated. A senior analyst of the new energy industry told the twenty-first Century business news reporter that the first half of the overseas market caused the new contract orders to be relatively insufficient due to the epidemic, but as the epidemic hit the top, the overseas market, especially the developed countries, resumed production and resumed production as scheduled, which will revive the demand of the industrial chain. In the domestic market, parity and bidding projects are concentrated in the second half of the year, which will further stimulate the industry's heat.

State securities analysis shows that the second half of the domestic PV market will usher in the "third quarter is better than expected, the fourth quarter of domestic and international resonance can be expected" situation. The agency said that combined with the "1 billion subsidy ceiling", "provinces and regions declared scale" and "electricity price policy" and other conditions, it is estimated that in 2020, the scale of the national bidding photovoltaic project will finally enter the subsidy scope from 20GW to 25GW, which is close to the 2019 bidding scale.

According to industry statistics, as of June 15th, more than 20 provinces and municipalities across the country announced this year's parity and bidding projects. Among them, the scale of the fair price has been more than 38GW, and the scale of the bid has been over 32GW.

In May this year, the national new energy consumption detection and early warning center issued the 2020 national wind power and photovoltaic capacity announcement. The announcement shows that according to the calculation of the power consumption in the first quarter, the total capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in China will be increased by 85.10GW this year, and the PV will reach 48.45GW.

"In 2019, there was no clear influence on the power grid consumption opinions, and the subsidy amount of the bidding project was finally not fully allocated, and the imbalance of the centralized network connection in December also appeared in the installation rhythm." According to the analysis of CICC's research department, this year, the power grid has given a clear commitment to the new photovoltaic project space, which can reduce the concerns of new bidding and parity projects, and attract more projects to participate in bidding.

Twenty-first Century economic news reporter found that from the current scale of the projects announced by provinces and municipalities, the total scale of parity and bidding projects in many provinces and cities has exceeded the newly added capacity of photovoltaic power provided by the local power grid, which shows that the enthusiasm of reporting is high.

Billion expansion

In the context of market demand is expected to boost, the photovoltaic industry leading companies once again vigorously throwing heavy gold, overweight expansion.

In February of this year, Tongwei shares raised 20 billion yuan of high-efficiency battery expansion plan, this year launched the domestic photovoltaic industry expansion of the "head gun". Subsequently, Longji shares, Jilin technology, and Xin Xin integration and other companies have followed up and set off a wave of expansion. According to incomplete statistics of twenty-first Century economic report reporters, as of mid April, 8 A share photovoltaic companies have announced a total investment of 70 billion 800 million yuan for the production of photovoltaic silicon rods, silicon wafers, batteries, components and other manufacturing links.

After more than a month, the domestic photovoltaic industry reappears heavy investment.

In the evening of June 5th, Dongfang Risheng announced that the company signed a framework agreement on "15GW efficient battery +15GW component project" with the Yiwu Economic Development Zone Management Committee. The agreement shows that the total investment of the expansion project is about 20 billion 600 million yuan, which will be implemented in two phases. The first phase is to build 5GW efficient battery and 5GW efficient production line. The construction period is expected to be 2 years. The two phase will build 10GW efficient battery and 10GW efficient component project, and will be put into operation in the next 3-5 years according to market demand.

Twenty-first Century economic news reporter found that although the industry's worries about overcapacity in the domestic photovoltaic industry have never disappeared, the enthusiasm of photovoltaic enterprises, especially the leading companies, has not diminished. Especially in the middle reaches of batteries and components, it has become one of the key links for the head enterprises to expand their production.

In April of this year, the technology announced that it would not increase over 5 billion 200 million yuan for high-efficiency batteries and component capacity expansion projects. Also in Yiwu, Jing Wan technology announced the annual output of 10GW high efficiency battery and 10GW efficient components and supporting projects with a total investment of 10 billion 200 million yuan. And the 2/3 amount of the fund-raising will be used in the construction of the first phase project.

The latest entry is east hope. In June 10th, the East hoped to reach a cooperation agreement with Sanmenxia. It plans to invest 10 billion yuan to invest in the 10GW PV module project in Mianchi, Sanmenxia.

It is worth noting that in recent years, photovoltaic glass links also usher in a wave of expansion of small climax.

In June 15th, Follett announced a fixed increase plan to raise funds of not more than 2 billion yuan, for the annual output of 750 thousand tons photovoltaic module cover glass two phase project.

There is also the south glass group that joins photovoltaic glass capacity competition. According to the latest fixed increase plan of A, the company intends to raise no more than 4 billion 28 million yuan to invest in light weight and high permeability panel manufacturing base for solar equipment.

Societe Generale Securities estimates that in the second half of 2020, the actual output of PV glass increased by 5% compared to the first half of 2020, which may be significantly smaller than the demand growth, and PV glass prices have room for recovery.

However, the aforementioned analysts pointed out to the twenty-first Century economic report reporters that the risk of overcapacity caused by the expansion of production can not be ignored. The price of PV industry chain still has room for reduction in the second half of the year.

?