Li Yige Column Is Full Of Mobility And Housing Companies Should Not Be Capricious.

In June 18th, the central bank governor Yi Gang said at the Lujiazui forum that in the second half of the year, monetary policy will maintain a reasonable and abundant liquidity. It is expected to drive nearly 20 trillion yuan in Renminbi loans throughout the year, and the scale of social financing will exceed 30 trillion yuan.

In comparison, RMB loans increased by 16 trillion and 810 billion yuan in 2019, and the scale of social financing increased by 25 trillion and 580 billion yuan in the whole year. In particular, the scale of loans increased considerably, with an increase of nearly 20%.

This year's two national government work report pointed out that prudent monetary policy should be more moderate and flexible, and positive fiscal policy should be more positive and promising. The national debt scale expanded to 8 trillion and 500 billion, an increase of 73% over last year. Earlier, the central bank has cleared several times to release funds to the market about 1 trillion and 750 billion yuan.

Yi Gang also said that through the reform of interest rate marketization, we should guide the continuous decline of market interest rates, and push the financial sector to make reasonable profits for enterprises. Since last year, LPR has been cut down for a long time, and the interest rate of LPR anchored has been at the lowest level in history. In June 17th, the Executive Council of the State Council also requested the financial system to make a reasonable profit of 1 trillion and 500 billion yuan this year.

From the perspective of market as a whole, we are in a period of abundant liquidity. Compared with many other economies, China's financial and fiscal policies are very restrained. The chairman of the SFC will easily say that global liquidity is even more likely to be flooded. So, Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, warned that there is no free lunch in the world. How can many central banks make money printing machines to print money? Large stimulus policies may be painful to quit in the future.

What is the relationship between liquidity and real estate?

In recent years, the central bank has reduced the accuracy and has clear window guidance for capital flows, and real estate has always been a prohibited area. The real estate industry knows that no matter how limited it is, there will always be funds flowing into real estate through various channels. People often say that money is the smartest. This shows that the return on capital of real estate is relatively high.

When the funds are tight, the list of financial institutions is lending. The housing companies who are not on the list are hard to get loans. Even if they get a lot of hardships, the cost will be too high. Now, you will find that the housing companies with low credit can also get loans. Because the same list, the number of Housing enterprises increased, the cost of capital is also down. This is a liquidity spillover effect.

Many friends are concerned about the phenomenon of looting in Shenzhen. I have said many times that the property market in Shenzhen is very special, and the urban pattern, land supply and income structure are quite different from those of the second tier hot cities. It is very difficult for the stock land to have large release space. The new construction land is limited by the land space. To fundamentally solve this problem, we may still have to think of ways to adjust the land space across regions. Shenzhen housing prices need attention and regulation, but there is no need to be too nervous.

There are two other phenomena that I am more concerned about. One is that the land market is booming. Here, of course, there is the reason why the local government expedite the pace of land leasing for the purpose of increasing revenue. At the same time, because of the willingness of the housing enterprises to get the land, they also have the ability to get the land.

Having the desire to get land is not only a need to replenish enterprises' land reserves, but also to the market's warming up. Since late March, sales offices have opened and sales of new houses have increased rapidly. To a large extent, this is a concentrated expression of new home transactions delayed by the new crown epidemic. Is it going to be consistent with the market situation in 5-6 months?

The ability to take land is a reflection of sales growth and confidence growth. It is also related to the ample liquidity of financial markets and the downward cost of capital. When you have money, buy more.

A sign of overheating in the land market is the premium rate. We must remind that housing enterprises should be vigilant against the premium rate of land. We must not overtake the so-called curve overtake to fight for the high price beyond the enterprise capacity. Personally, I believe that the premium rate below 30% is the green range, 30%-50% is the orange range, and more than 50% is the red range.

But a commercial and residential land sold in Beilun District of Ningbo in June 19th seems a bit worrying. Austrian garden grabbed the land, the premium rate of up to 62.67%, more than 50% of this recognized warning line. Fortunately, its floor price is only 9760 yuan / square meter, and its average price limit of 19300 yuan / square meter has a certain space. It may be a little low starting price. This leads to a high premium rate, and the local government's land pricing strategy needs to be adjusted.

Another phenomenon is that a group of small and medium-sized Housing enterprises are queuing up to go to Hong Kong to be listed. It is said that about 10 mainland housing companies have submitted prospectus this year. Pursuing is good. But these housing enterprises, last year, some sales are still only about three hundred million or four hundred million. But it does not prevent them from raising the target of 100 billion in 50 billion or three this year.

It can be seen that the scale expansion is the common choice of IPO before housing prices. As small and medium-sized Housing enterprises plate small, to take a big step, only high leverage, high debt. Hundreds of housing companies have gone through such an old road. They all succeeded. Why can't I?

No one dares to conclude that you can't succeed. What worries me is that the world is already quite different, and property is coming to a new stage. Land prices are so expensive, so many predators, if you accidentally grab several high prices, even if the listing to finance, can digest, is still a problem. You have to pray that the property market will increase well next year, otherwise, the two land will probably cover you for three or four years.

The time window for small and medium enterprises has not been long enough. In June 12th, Lingke, chairman of the golden land group, made a judgement in the speech of the live broadcast forum of China City Alliance: by 2030, the annual sales of new houses in China will be estimated at around 700 million square meters, that is, probably returning to 2008. We may not be able to say for the time being that the sales scale of 2019 will be the pinnacle of real estate. But in the next 10 years, the sales area of new houses will decline steadily, which is a visible trend.

Large housing enterprises are trying hard to expand their market share, and medium-sized Housing enterprises, especially small and medium-sized Housing enterprises, are trying to find their own living space. The most dangerous thing is that when you grow up desperately, you are misjudged. You are caught up in huge debts and expensive land blocks. You will not only lose the chance of development, but also have to cover up the damage.

With ample liquidity and low capital cost, is it a beautiful trap or a valuable springboard? It's not that easy.

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