Shenzhen Collective "Fight The New" Under The Real Estate Market Regulation Is Tighter And Tighter, For The Real Estate Speculators Are Facing The Risk Of "Precipice".

"Living in Shenzhen, not looking at the house, not buying a house, not paying attention to the room, just like you stand on top of Taishan, do not look at the scenery, staring at the TV play that is stored in your cell phone."

In a housing group in Shenzhen, someone threw this sentence. Wu Lin (a pseudonym) was in a hurry. He hurriedly looked at his account and found that the fund was not in place.

Wu Lin is a "fry tenant" from Jiangsu. He bought a house in Shenzhen in the past few years, and recently wanted to participate in "fight new" and buy another set.

"Fight new" is the hottest thing in Shenzhen's property market this year, that is, participating in Yaohao and buying new houses. Since the slow down of the epidemic in March, the new market represented by the merchants Bay Xi has met with the "containment" of the buyers. Some people regret, some people exclaim, others also cynical. No matter who is, he is coerced by this wave of heat.

Behind the new strategy is the abolition of the luxury housing tax in November last year. The property market in Shenzhen has witnessed a marked rise, especially in the areas such as Bao Zhong and Guangming. Many new houses and second-hand housing prices are hanging upside down, making people feel that the opportunity to make quick money has come.

The real money making after new start depends on the circulation and price of the secondary market. In fact, the second-hand housing in Shenzhen began to have a joint hype and a high tide of shipment last year, in line with the prosperity of the new housing market.

Relevant departments have been concerned about this phenomenon, suggesting that the listing price is high and the risk of speculation exists, and some intermediary agencies have been punished, and some communities have been criticized.

You can make money if you fight new? Will Shenzhen housing prices "never fall"? No one can guarantee it. People once thought that Beijing's housing prices were "strong", but in fact, Beijing's housing prices had fallen for three years. Before last year's mansion tax, most parts of Shenzhen also fell for two or three years. Even now, Shenzhen is not all the location.

With the stricter regulation of second-hand housing in Shenzhen's departments, the supply of land and new houses will be increased, the contradiction between supply and demand is expected to be eased, and the investment period of three years will be extended.

"Fight new" in progress

Wu Lin has not felt the excitement of the Shenzhen property market for several years. Last time it seemed to be in 2015.

She added several housing groups and watched several dishes at the same time. In June 18th, the new Jin an Haina residence in Bao Zhong suddenly launched 5 sets of housing sources, and only about 1000 people recognized it in two days.

New Jin an Haina mansion is the two phase of new Jin an one mansion. According to the information of chain family, the number of second-hand houses in the first residence is 110 thousand at the end of the year. Now the listing price is more than 130 thousand. Compared with the new house price of Haina residence more than 80 thousand, the upside down space is very obvious. "If you buy it, you will earn it, you have to believe it is in Shenzhen," Wu Lin said.

Now, it is no longer the exclusive welfare of Shenzhen people to fight the new year. No matter which property it is, there are outsiders who are "fighting new".

Wu Lin just lived in Shenzhen for a while. When he heard the news, he took the time to pick up the chips. She told reporters that it was more lively to identify the site, but felt that everyone was in comparison with the Buddha department. They thought that the chances of winning the 5 suites were not large enough.

Wu Lin regretted that he had come to the plate last year and asked the price, but he did not buy it, because he did not expect to get another wave this year at such a high price in Shenzhen.

On the other side, she rejoices that in the past few years, Shenzhen has been engaged in the work of the Internet, earning some money and joining in the "fight for new". At that time, she bought the horizon of Nanshan District, and now the house price has been rising. And now she is no longer working. He lives in Jiangsu half of the time in Shenzhen.

Unlike the previous two years of robbing luxury houses, because of the rise in housing prices since the end of last year, many of Shenzhen's rigid demand plates also had "operational" space this year. In addition to Haina mansion, Financial Street's first entry into Shenzhen in the past week has also made a lot of eyeballs. The buyers who are preparing to raise funds are queuing up the night before.

In addition to melting into Washington, manhole coastal city, run four and other "net red pan" are investors' optimistic "new targets" this year.

The Shenzhen property market's "beating the new" phenomenon has existed for a long time. The first hit by the new "net red" was the first phase of Huarun city run Fu, which opened in 2014. At that time, the average price was 40 thousand / square meter, two years later, the average price of Huarun city two phase was 75 thousand / square meter, in 2018, the average price of three square meters was 85 thousand / square meters. The chain home platform showed that the second-hand housing price in May has reached 160 thousand +. At the end of last year, a set of three rooms and two offices also reached 140 thousand per level, and the new money making effect should be amazing.

Since 2018, luxury houses have to "fight new". The tyrants of Shenzhen are squatting on twos and threes to wait for the Yaohao of the double imperial merchants, which is called "50 million squatting".

In 2019, the 80 million and 1 apartments of Huarun Rui house in Shenzhen bay were "seconds light" in a few minutes. Similarly, 5 million of the cities in the deep industry, which have been recognized for raising funds, have been robbed. This year, the merchants' Bay has been opened by three to three.

The temptation of price inversion

From the growth history of Huarun's net red disk, we can see the reason why Shenzhen people compete to fight new: the money making effect.

First, Shenzhen is often short of supply of land and new houses, and the secondary housing market has a stronger circulation than other cities. Because of the existence of the price limit policy, the new house is often cheaper than the surrounding second-hand housing, and it can be sold at a low price after several years. The profit margins generated by the upside down are less than one million, reaching tens of millions.

In November last year, the abolition of the luxury tax in Shenzhen was equivalent to a few hundred thousand or even millions of taxes and fees, which promoted a new wave of second-hand housing and has not yet been extinguished. According to the National Bureau of statistics, the price of second-hand housing in Shenzhen rose by 1.6% in May, ranking second in the country.

A real estate buyer, who is preparing to buy run four, told reporters that she had always had ample funds on hand, and that buying a house was usually a one-time payment. In 2016, she was rich and had a quota. There was a three phase of the peninsula city state in front of her. But at that time, she felt that the real estate investment was unreliable, and the result was that the students had appreciated by 12 million. She envied, so now she sold a house to make room for the "new" run four.

And the factors that support Shenzhen's long-term rise in housing prices are premium. By the end of 2015, Taihe had sold nearly 80 thousand / flat floor price in the sharp hill area. Last year, Shenzhen's epic land Pat was worth 40 thousand square meters.

Unlike other tier cities, Shenzhen's housing qualifications are the easiest to get. Foreigners like Wu Lin are not qualified to buy a house in Shenzhen. They can be directly settled and can be bought immediately or in the name of a company.

Central Plains, shell and other intermediaries said that over the past two years, more and more foreigners are looking at the development prospects of Shenzhen to buy houses in Shenzhen. Some people in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other places moved their accounts to Shenzhen to buy houses.

There are Shenzhen intermediaries reflect that in order to raise "fight new" funds, many people leverage leverage to pry assets. Gan Jun photo

Hidden chain of real estate

In fact, in Shenzhen, a complete and mature chain of real estate has been formed. From qualification, loan to buying houses and selling houses, there are a series of institutions running.

The realization of new cash is the key, that is, the price of second-hand housing market. In this regard, Shenzhen has emerged part of the residential area of some second-hand housing owners jointly hyped up housing prices phenomenon.

At the end of last year, Shenzhen's second-hand housing owners repeatedly made a monster, holding up their prices, and finally being named by the Housing Authority, it was a stunning "big play". In November last year, the owners of Hengyu Bincheng passed through the Shenzhen real estate circle. "The owners of the D apartment are listening to the command. The unified listing price is 26 million, less than this number is not sold", "next week 27 million, thank you."

The collective price rise of Hengyu Bincheng is like a spark. From Qianhai, Bazhong, to Binhai and Longhua, more than a dozen owners of residential areas began to plan "price alliance".

Soon, supervision paid attention to this matter. The relevant owners of Hengyu Bincheng and Fenghuang district were interviewed, and the net signing of the second-hand housing was suspended.

During the epidemic, the property market became cold, but after the easing of the epidemic in March, the speculation style was re started, and many real estate prices were rising. A number of real estate agents in Shenzhen found that the listing price of second-hand housing in the 1-3 phase of Huarun city suddenly soared to a maximum of 200 thousand / square meters, and many of them were 180 thousand / square meters. And before the Spring Festival, the price is 12-13 000 square meters.

According to data from the second floor platform of the shell network, the listing price suddenly soared not only in Huarun City, Houhai, Shekou, Qianhai and Shenzhen Bay Area in Nanshan District, but also the owners were scrambling to raise the listing price. The sunshine seaside quotation increased by about 12%, and the Sanxiang sea rose by about 15%, and the two phase of Heng Yubin city rose 15%.

The Baoan central area adjacent to Nanshan also followed suit, and the price of Baotuan increased. Many real estate projects were still 7-8 / square meters before the Spring Festival. They were all linked to 100 thousand square meters.

Shenzhen real estate intermediary Association survey found that some residential owners collectively hang up the housing price, in order to get a mortgage loan through the way of "high valuation and high loan", and then put the loan money into the real estate market. The experienced investors, in order to evade the supervision of capital, even transferred more than ten loans.

Beginning in April, due to the high price of listing, several districts were named by the Shenzhen real estate intermediary Association. More than 200 thousand square meters of Nanshan and more than 70 thousand square meters of bright houses were all taken off the shelves.

The association also pointed out that behind the local property is "stir fried" behind the existence of some investment companies, media and real estate intermediaries and other stakeholders from the interests of the organization team, in boosting the property market "false fire". They worry that such a high volume shipment will attract people's risk and risk.

Li Yujia, chief research fellow of Guangdong provincial housing policy research center, said recently that the "Shenzhen housing fraud" incident also shows that property investment has been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people and deeply rooted in the bone marrow. Shenzhen's "big V" chain is countless investors.

An intermediary in Shenzhen reflects that in order to raise funds for "fighting new" funds, many people use leveraged assets to pry up assets, hoping to make a cash pot after changing hands.

According to Shenzhen Central Plains research center data, the leverage ratio of the Shenzhen property market has been at a high level, and has continued to lead the whole country in recent years. In 2019, Shenzhen's household sector leverage increased to 83.2%, leading to North Guangdong, which was 20% higher than the national average (60.4%). In the first quarter of 2020, Shenzhen's household sector loans increased by 54 billion 493 million yuan, and returned to the 2017 and 2018 high.

Shenzhen housing and crabs sister is just a public case, in Shenzhen, such "big V" and members still have a lot of -- in the big V deep room to pay 10000 yuan dues, crab sister according to the guidance of Shenzhen housing, through fake marriage obtained the qualification of purchase, superimposed business loans, small loans and other leveraged successful purchase, while the elder sister crab is doing the dream of real estate prosperity, Shenzhen finance. The office and the banking regulatory bureau issued a new business loan extension for half a year, so that the financial chain of crab sister broke down and the real estate dream was shattered. The about 7000000 property purchased was frozen by the small loan company, and she was prepared to auction to repay the bridge loan.

Like the crab sister, the fry tenants are even bold enough to take all their savings, overdraw all credit cards, and add the lever to the ultimate in real estate, trying to be small.

It's not stable.

Investment speculation in Shenzhen property market has been higher than other cities in recent years. According to the data of Shenzhen real estate research center, the proportion of investment houses increased from 20% to 40% or even higher during the 2015-2016 years of rising housing prices. The proportion of non registered residents in investment was about 40%. Excluding those hottest years, the Shenzhen property market often has a 30% investment share.

Since March of this year, according to the Central Plains of Shenzhen, the proportion of investment demand in the market is about 40%.

But with so many investors, they are less confident about the future than the previous two years. For example, they have the expected differentiation for the hottest net reddish run four.

According to a number of Shenzhen real estate intermediary speculation, run four will be priced at 100 thousand / square meters above, compared to second-hand housing 13-14 million transaction price, there is still a certain arbitrage space, but the subsequent rise of space, full of uncertainty.

In terms of time cost, it will take 2 years to run the four building, and after that, it will take 5 years to sell the license and three years. The time cost and the cost of capital will be higher than before.

On the whole, some investment buyers believe that "fight" run four to get the high cost of housing tickets and superposition of leverage to raise funds.

At present, the price of new houses is more than 50 thousand / square meters, plus all kinds of costs, and the selling price will be seventy thousand or eighty thousand or so. And whether this increase will come and when to arrive, many people who buy houses do not have the bottom of their hearts.

Li Yujia believes that the problems reflected in the "deep housing fraud", such as fake divorce and fake marriage, loan quota, business loans to enter the property market, intermediary, big V, and the vigorous speculation under the media, all need to be innovating in regulation. The policy should be meticulous, the responsibility should be put in place, the punishment for those who commit crimes should not be punished, and the cooperation between finance and housing departments should be carried out. There are substantive actions that can not be thrown away.

Yan Yuejin, research director of the think-tank center of the Yi Ju Research Institute, also said that Shenzhen should guard against new risks and strictly handle the behavior of malicious driving up prices and illegal collection of "tea drinking fees", which will help to curb the false fire in the real estate market.

Policy risks are also increasing. The state has repeatedly stressed that "housing is not speculation". In the past two months, the government of Shenzhen has repeatedly upgraded the supervision of second-hand housing. It has dealt with the bad behavior of driving up prices and listing prices, and has thoroughly investigated the illegal operations such as business loans and other leverage.

In addition to tighter regulation, the Shenzhen government will significantly increase the supply of residential land and commercial housing this year. If the contradiction between supply and demand of housing in Shenzhen can be effectively resolved, new investors will face greater risks.

Seeing that the wind changed, Wu Lin began to hesitate. She thinks that the four products, location and price are not as good as three.

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