Set A Two-Year High! Rubber Futures Continue To Rise Corn For 10 Days

Before the national day, rubber futures prices were always running at 10660 yuan to 12800 yuan / ton. However, since the national day, rubber prices began to rise rapidly, rising for 10 consecutive trading days.

By the end of October 22, the settlement price of 2101 contract, the main rubber supplier of the previous period, had risen to 14810 yuan / ton. In other words, the increase in the past 10 trading days has been basically equivalent to the amplitude of the previous nine months.

It should be pointed out that in the early stage of rubber price rising slowly, domestic tire enterprises have launched a round of intensive price adjustment due to the upward impact of the automobile industry. After the national day, the increase of more than 2000 yuan is expected to bring a new price adjustment window for downstream industries.

Some enterprises have already acted. After the National Day holiday, tire manufacturers in Shandong, Wuhan and other places have announced price increases. The single price adjustment range is between 2% and 3%. The price adjustment reasons given by them are mainly "the price of raw materials rises and the production cost rises."

In the future, it is also possible for more downstream enterprises to join the price adjustment team.

Rubber prices hit new highs

The peak of rubber futures appeared in early 2011, when the price per ton exceeded 40000 yuan, and the next highest point was 24000 yuan in February 2017. Since then, continued the downward trend, has not changed.

However, according to the current price of about 15000 yuan / ton, the price of rubber has broken through the high point in recent two years, and has generally recovered to the level around March 2018.

In particular, this round of rise after the National Day this year has been very rapid.

Behind it is the experience of the upstream supply side which can be called drama this year. "After October, frequent rainfall in Yunnan and Hainan, the main production areas in China, has affected output, while Thailand, a major overseas producer, has experienced rainstorms, and the price of local raw materials has reached a new high in recent years." Zhongyuan futures Rubber Researcher Liu Peiyang 22, said.

Qu Yi, rubber analyst of Baichuan information, also pointed out that domestic rubber mainly relies on imports. However, affected by the weather, powdery mildew and the new crown epidemic, the tapping node was delayed to the beginning of June, and then Thailand and other places were faced with rainfall in July and August, so the tapping progress was slow.

Accordingly, imported raw materials enter the domestic market later. On the contrary, domestic downstream industries, due to the concentrated outbreak of demand suppressed by the epidemic situation since June, combined with the increase in demand for medical supplies, and the diversion of raw materials to the raw material end under the high profit state of the tire industry, the domestic raw material supply has become tight.

"Hainan situation is relatively good, Yunnan annual output is expected to decline significantly, which can be seen from some side data." Liu Peiyang said.

According to him, most of the domestic all latex products will be registered as warehouse receipts of the previous period, but the comparative data show that the number of registered warehouse receipts of the exchange is only half of that of previous years. The lack of delivery products also supported rubber futures prices.

On the demand side, the sales data of automobiles including heavy trucks and passenger cars in the second half of the year are better, and there is a significant driving force from the demand side.

Capital market and capital market should not be ignored.

After the domestic epidemic situation has been stably controlled, agricultural products, chemical products, industrial products and other bulk commodities have gone out of the "V" shaped reversal of the market, and most commodity prices have recovered to the level before the epidemic.

In contrast, rubber futures reached a peak of 14400 yuan / ton in January, but rubber futures failed to break through 13000 yuan / ton before National Day.

"Compared with the price before the epidemic, rubber is undoubtedly easier to attract fund speculation, and the market is also looking for varieties with lower valuation." Liu Peiyang thinks.

Compared with the data, we can also see that in the 10 trading days after the national day, the rubber futures position increased from 230000 to 330000, and the single day trading volume increased from 335000 to 1030000 in the same period, and the speculative activity increased significantly.

Will downstream price adjustment come?

"At present, there are big differences in the market, some see more than 20000, and some think the price will fall back." Baichuan information rubber industry analyst Qu Yi said, but from the point of view of inventory and planting, medium and long-term rise probability is greater.

She said that at present, the domestic consumption rate of all latex is faster than last year, which promotes the decline rate of total latex inventory, which is higher than the same period of last year, which shows that the downstream demand of domestic market is better. At the same time, due to the continuous downturn of rubber price in recent years, the phenomenon of rubber farmers abandoning seeds has appeared, and the upstream supply is not optimistic.

The rubber planting area in Southeast Asia will not be stable until the annual rubber planting price of RMB 150000 will continue to increase in 2011

According to the latest report released by ANRPC, the global production of natural rubber decreased by 7.3% from January to August 2020.

"From a global perspective, rubber production is only a relative reduction, not a complete trend change." Liu Peiyang said.

What can not be ignored is that this year's rubber industry belongs to the pattern of both supply and demand decline. Only China with stable epidemic situation has better demand. The uncertainty of epidemic development in other countries will also delay the release node of overseas market demand.

In his view, after the recent continuous sharp rise, rubber futures prices have fully reflected the relationship between supply and demand, and the future price is more likely to remain relatively stable.

However, how to digest the increase of nearly 2500 yuan per ton since October?

"At present, the spot price of all latex in East China is about 14000 yuan, but the market is generally active, and the downstream tire factories may not pursue a substantial increase," Liu Peiyang said.

It should be pointed out that although the possibility of high-level inventory replenishment in the downstream is not likely, if the rubber price continues to maintain the current level in the future, the production cost of tire enterprises will certainly be increased.

In September this year, for example, some tire enterprises such as Zhengxin tire and margiss tire issued price increase notices. Some overseas manufacturers, such as Bridgestone, have also announced to increase the prices of radial tires for trucks and buses.

Now, the price of raw materials is rising again, and the prosperity of the domestic downstream automobile industry has increased significantly. Domestic tire enterprises are facing the window period of price adjustment again.

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