Investigation On Power Rationing In Multi Provinces: Why Did Zhejiang As Of The 31St?

"The Spring Festival is coming soon. Foreign customers have to prepare their goods. The end of the year is the peak period of shipment. I didn't expect to receive the notice of power restriction." On December 17, a foreign trade enterprise in Yiwu told the reporter of the 21st century economic report.

This is not an exception in Yiwu. On the 17th, our reporter visited Yiwu Commodity City and found that all enterprises received the notice, but the impact was different.

"The factory has been open for three days and shut down for one day. However, most of our orders are concentrated in the first half of the year. The demand for orders in the second half of the year is not very big. Therefore, we can arrange ahead of time after receiving the notice, so the impact is not very great." Yiwu City, a production of epidemic prevention and control materials enterprises said.

In December, three provinces, including Zhejiang Province, have issued power and production restriction notices, adding to the recent rise in the price of steam coal. The market has been rumored to be due to the shortage of coal supply, which leads to the government's promulgation of these measures.

However, according to our reporter's understanding, at least there is no shortage of electricity in Zhejiang Province. "Zhejiang is not short of electricity." A Lishui power system personage told reporters, "now is under the requirements of" dual control "energy conservation and emission reduction, our unit temperature is higher than 3 ° can not turn on the air conditioning."

"Double control" of Zhejiang sprint energy

In addition to the manufacturing industry, the construction industry has also been affected by power rationing.

The 21st century economic report reporter obtained a "notice on strengthening the use and management of energy consumption equipment in construction sites" issued by Yiwu construction engineering quality and safety station. According to the spirit of the provincial and municipal energy "double control" series of meetings, in order to further control the power consumption, reduce the city's GDP energy consumption, and win the battle of energy dual control, Yiwu construction sites were proposed A series of work requirements.

The Notice includes "strict implementation of fire safety control measures in dormitory areas. It is not allowed to use high-power electrical appliances such as "fast heating" and induction cooker in migrant workers' dormitories; the project department does not arrange or less arrange night construction; before December 31, all night lighting power such as project enclosure advertisement and landscape lighting will be turned off ".

On the morning of the 17th, 21st century economic reporter called Yiwu construction engineering quality and safety station to make a public phone call. The staff of the other side said, "Zhejiang Province and Yiwu City have held several meetings on energy" dual control ". We have also implemented the spirit of the meeting and received the circular.

According to Zhejiang Online, the news portal of Zhejiang provincial Party committee and government on December 14, Zhejiang Provincial Bureau of organ Affairs recently issued a notice saying that from now on to December 31, all relevant units in the province can turn on heating equipment such as air conditioning only when the temperature reaches below 3 ℃ (including 3 ℃), and the setting temperature shall not exceed 16 ℃.

"Double control" means to control the intensity and total amount of energy consumption.

According to the implementation plan for further strengthening energy "dual control" and promoting high-quality development in Zhejiang Province (2018-2020), Zhejiang will establish an energy "dual control" forced transformation and upgrading system by 2020; on the basis of the balance of all cities, the accumulated energy use space will be more than 6 million tons of standard coal.

On December 13, the development and Reform Bureau of Yiwu City, Zhejiang Province, and the energy conservation office of Jinhua energy conservation and emission reduction leading group issued the energy conservation proposal. When the outdoor temperature in public places exceeds 5 ℃, heating and air conditioning will be turned off consciously.

In addition, Zhejiang Wenzhou Municipal Bureau of government affairs issued a notice on December 12, saying, "in view of the severe situation and green development requirements faced by the provincial and municipal energy" dual control "and" coal reduction ", from now on to December 31, heating equipment such as air conditioning can be turned on only when the gas temperature in the office area of relevant units at the municipal level reaches below 3 ℃ (including 3 ℃), and the setting temperature shall not exceed Over 16 ℃

On December 17, the boss of a clothing factory in Yiwu confirmed to the reporter of the 21st century economic news that he had recently received the relevant notice of "dual control" of energy. Taking his factory as an example, he stopped more than 1000 kilowatt hours of electricity every day. The current notification time is until December 31, this year.

"If it is really due to the" power shortage "problem, then the notice will not indicate the December 31 deadline." "Although the price of coal has risen by a large margin in recent years, it has not caused a shortage of electricity," said the power system source

Hunan and Jiangxi encounter power restriction

The last large-scale "power cut-off and power restriction" that was remembered by the public also dates back to nearly 20 years ago, when 12 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions issued documents demanding "power restriction".

On December 14, according to the official website of the development and Reform Commission of Changsha City, Hunan Province, power rationing measures were launched in the whole province from December 8.

Referring to the website of Hunan Provincial Development and Reform Commission, an emergency notice on starting orderly power consumption in winter in 2020 (hereinafter referred to as the notice) shows that the province's maximum load has reached 30.93 million KW, exceeding the historical record in winter. The daily maximum power consumption is 606 million kwh, an increase of 14.1% over the same period of last year. There is a big gap in power supply.

In addition, according to the "Dajiang power grid", affected by the cold wave, Jiangxi power grid coordinated the power consumption load, dispatching, generating and receiving power, which reached a record high. Jiangxi Provincial Development and Reform Commission has decided to implement interruptible load in the morning and evening peak hours every day and start orderly power utilization work from December 15.

In addition to Hunan and Jiangxi provinces, Shaanxi Province, which is traditionally regarded as a "big energy province", also has the phenomenon of high power load and tight balance between power supply and demand.

According to the press conference of State Grid Shaanxi Electric Power Company in 2020, the maximum power generation capacity of Shaanxi Province dispatching caliber this winter is about 29.2 million kilowatts in addition to new energy. Considering the average output power of 2 million kilowatts across provinces and regions, the comprehensive maximum power generation capacity of Shaanxi power grid is 27.2 million kilowatts, and the reserve capacity of the whole province is about 600 thousand kilowatts, and the reserve rate is 2.3% Slightly tight.

The factors leading to power rationing in many regions mainly come from the demand side. In addition to the sharp increase in industrial electricity demand at the end of this year, the cliff type temperature drop has caused the electricity load to rise too fast in a short period of time.

From February 12 to 14, the first cold wave of this winter hit the central and eastern regions of China, and the cooling rate in most areas reached 6-12 ℃.

Wu Donglin, a spokesman for Changsha power supply company, said publicly that the winter in Hunan Province was one month earlier than that in previous years. The power supply situation is more severe due to the reduction of coal combustion, the decline of reservoir water level, the failure of wind power generation to generate electricity effectively due to freezing, and the reduction of external power.

"At present, the main problem of power shortage in Hunan and other provinces is that the grid structure is not" hard "and the transmission and distribution capacity is not strong." A power industry source told reporters, "behind it is the structural imbalance caused by economic growth exceeding the growth of power supply, that is, the matching problem between economic development and power grid construction."

He said that with the emphasis on "green development" in recent years, coal-fired power plants are facing multiple pressures, such as ultra-low emissions and ensuring power generation capacity, maintaining market players in the reform, and negotiating and trading on the premise of setting a red line for electricity prices, and coal-fired power plants are often faced with the dilemma of "more and more losses".

A surge in industrial demand

In the fourth quarter of this year, the peak of industrial power consumption is coming, and the power security is facing great pressure.

Taking Zhejiang Province as an example, foreign enterprises are generally shut down due to the impact of the epidemic, but the time is approaching Christmas and new year's day. A large number of manufacturing orders of high energy consuming goods such as chemical fiber, textile, printing and dyeing enter China, and the domestic production capacity is mainly concentrated in Zhejiang, Guangdong and other places, resulting in the rapid increase of power load in these areas.

According to Zhejiang Daily, the total export value of Zhejiang Province reached 238.16 billion yuan in November, an increase of 20.8% over the same period last year. The rise of foreign trade industry, so that enterprises in overtime to open full horsepower production at the same time, increased the consumption of electricity.

The same is true across the country.

On December 15, according to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the recovery of China's economy is improving, and the growth rate of several indicators has increased month on month, and the impact of winter weather is superimposed, and the demand for coal exceeds that of previous years.

In November, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 7.0% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage point faster than that in October. From January to November, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 2.3% year on year, 0.5 percentage points faster than that from January to October. The electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industries increased by 5.4%, 1.4 percentage points faster than that of the previous month.

The main industries and industrial products increased, and the area of most products and industries continued to grow, and domestic industrial production continued to repair.

Take electrolytic aluminum, a high energy consuming industry, as an industry whose power consumption accounts for nearly 8% of the total social electricity consumption, this year, due to the rapid rise of downstream aluminum prices, the increase has been nearly 50% since the mid year low point. At present, the domestic production sentiment is high, and the operating volume has increased continuously.

"At present, China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity is about 42 million tons / year, and the current capacity utilization rate is more than 92%, and it is still rising." An aluminum industry personage told reporters, "compared with last year, this year's operating rate has increased by 10 percentage points, the overall production mood of the industry is hot."

Therefore, the power consumption of the whole society is increasing rapidly.

On December 16, Meng Wei, spokesman for the national development and Reform Commission, said that in November, China's electricity consumption increased by 9.4% year-on-year, 2.8 percentage points higher than that in October.

In terms of power generation, in November, the power generation of industries above Designated Size nationwide increased by 6.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 2.2 percentage points higher than that in October. Among them, thermal power, hydropower, wind power and solar power increased by 6.6%, 11.3%, 5.9% and 5.3% respectively on a year-on-year basis, while nuclear power decreased by 0.8%. From January to November, power generation increased by 2.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate continued to rise.

In terms of electricity consumption, in November, the electricity consumption of the whole country increased by 9.4% year on year, 2.8 percentage points higher than that in October. From January to November, the electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 2.5% year on year.

However, with the rapid economic recovery, energy production itself has a certain lag and periodicity, so the supply can not keep up with the demand in a short period of time.

In November, the added value of mining industry increased by 2.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.5% lower than that of the previous month; the output of raw coal increased by 1.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.1% higher than that of the previous month; and the growth rate of natural gas was 11.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.1% lower than that of last month. The national inventory of key power plants also dropped from 96.61 million tons in the same period last year to 84.1 million tons in October this year.

Therefore, as the absolute main force of China's power generation energy, the relative shortage of coal resources and the limited bearing capacity of superimposed power grid load jointly become the main factors limiting the increase of power generation.

Speed up the adjustment

Hunan Province, which announced power rationing earlier, is doing its best to cope with the power shortage. Hunan has set up a special work team, and relevant departments are strengthening the operation and dispatching of coal, electricity, oil and gas, actively coordinating the coal railway transportation capacity of Shanxi, Shaanxi and other places to ensure the full and stable operation of thermal power units, and do a good job in scientific dispatching of hydropower.

According to the relevant person in charge of Hunan Provincial Development and Reform Commission, at present, the thermal power units in Hunan Province are fully connected to the grid for power generation, and ultra-high voltage lines such as Gansu and Three Gorges are fully loaded to deliver power to Hunan. The coal inventory can basically meet the coal demand of 14 thermal power enterprises in the province in recent years.

Meng Wei said that the current coal market supply and demand overall balance, this winter and spring coal supply is guaranteed. At present, the available days of coal storage in the national unified dispatching power plant is 21 days, and that of Heilongjiang power plant with the lowest temperature in Northeast China is 31 days.

"We have also noted that coal prices in the spot market have risen in the near future. As the power plants mainly use coal purchased under medium and long-term contracts, the current coal prices are generally stable. According to the monitoring situation, at present, more than 80% of the coal supply is implemented in the medium and long-term coal contracts, and the transaction price is between 540-550 yuan per ton. The price rise of the remaining small part of the market coal will not affect the people's livelihood coal security. In the future, we will increase supply and adjust demand to guide the market coal price to stabilize at a more reasonable level. " Meng Wei said.

However, due to the previous environmental protection and safety inspection policy and other factors, whether the winter coal supply can be produced and transported to the coal demand areas in a short time still needs to be questioned.

"There is generally no inventory accumulation in the mining area, and the price changes are very frequent." A person engaged in coal trade in Inner Mongolia told reporters, "the open-pit mining area has more choices than the well mine cost performance and variety of coal, so now it is the situation of" car equal quantity. "

He said that the current coal supply is very uncertain, "downstream, not only is the shortage of low sulfur and high-quality coal, the market as a whole is in a state of shortage of coal, the quotation is also relatively chaotic, basically there is no goods with price, the market coal transaction is less." The traders said. (our reporter Cao Enhui also contributed to this article.)

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