Interpretation: In February 2021, CPI And PPI Rose On A Month On Month Basis

The National Bureau of statistics released today the national CPI (consumer price index) and PPI (producer price index) data for February 2021. In this regard, Dong Lijuan, Senior Statistician of the city Department of the National Bureau of statistics, made an interpretation.

　 1. CPI's month on month rise fell, and the year-on-year decline narrowed

On a month on month basis, CPI rose 0.6%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, food prices rose by 1.6% and fell by 2.5%, which affected the CPI rise by about 0.30%. In food, the prices of aquatic products and fresh fruits increased by 8.7% and 6.1% respectively, 5.4% and 3.8% respectively due to the increase of consumption demand and transportation cost during the Spring Festival; the pig market continued to recover, and the pork price decreased from 5.6% to 3.1% from the previous month; the weather became warmer, the egg production of laying hens increased, and the transportation channels were gradually unblocked after the epidemic situation in some areas improved The price of eggs dropped 4.5% from 11.1% in the previous month. Non food prices rose 0.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month, affecting the CPI rise of about 0.28%. Among the non food items, residents' demand for entertainment consumption has increased, and the prices of movie and performance tickets have increased by 13.0%; the price of gasoline and diesel oil has increased by 3.4% and 3.7% respectively due to the rise of international crude oil price; the labor cost has increased during the Spring Festival, and the prices of car washing, housekeeping services, hairdressing and taxis have increased by 1.2% - 6.3%.

On a year-on-year basis, CPI fell by 0.2%, 0.1 percentage point lower than that of the previous month. Among them, the food price increased from 1.6% in the previous month to a decrease of 0.2%, which affected the CPI decrease by about 0.05%. In food, affected by the high base in the same period of last year, pork price decreased by 14.9%, with a decrease rate of 11.0 percentage points compared with the previous month; the price of chicken and duck decreased by 8.7% and 2.6% respectively, and the decline rates were narrowed; the prices of mutton, aquatic products and eggs increased by 7.5%, 5.9% and 4.3%, respectively, with the increase all expanding. Non food prices fell by 0.2%, 0.6 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, which affected the CPI decline by about 0.15%. Among non food items, the price of transportation and communication decreased by 1.9%, among which the price of air ticket decreased by 28.2%, the price of gasoline and diesel decreased by 5.2% and 5.8%, respectively; the price of education, culture and entertainment, and health care increased by 0.6% and 0.3% respectively.

It is estimated that in the 0.2% year-on-year decline in February, the tail effect of last year's price change was about - 1.8 percentage points, and the impact of new price increase was about 1.6 percentage points. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, was flat from a 0.3% drop in the previous month.

2. CPI fell down on a month on month basis and expanded on a year-on-year basis

On a month on month basis, PPI rose 0.8%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production rose by 1.1%, and the rise fell by 0.1%; the price of means of living turned to be flat from 0.2% in the previous month. Among the 40 industrial industries surveyed, 25 were up, 10 were down, and 5 were flat. The change was the same as last month. Affected by the continuous upward trend of international crude oil prices, the prices of domestic oil related industries continued to rise. The prices of oil and natural gas exploitation industry increased by 7.5%, the prices of oil, coal and other fuel processing industries increased by 4.9%, the prices of chemical fiber manufacturing industry increased by 3.6%, and the prices of chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry increased by 2.1%, which affected the PPI rise by about 0.45%. With the rise of domestic demand and the continuous rise of international metal commodity prices, the prices of domestic ferrous metal mining and dressing industry, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 5.9%, 2.3% and 1.5%, respectively, which affected the PPI rise by about 0.24%. Affected by the warming weather and the Spring Festival holiday, the demand for heating and industrial electricity has weakened. The price of coal mining and washing industry has increased by 1.6%, and the increase has dropped by 4.8%. The price of gas production and supply industry has changed from up to down, falling by 0.7%.

On a year-on-year basis, PPI rose by 1.7%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points over the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production rose by 2.3% and the increase increased by 1.8%; the price of means of living decreased by 0.2%, the same as that of the previous month. Among the major industries, ferrous metal smelting and calendering industry increased by 14.1% and 4.2 percentage points; nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 12.1% and 3.2 percentage points; coal mining and washing industry increased by 10.9% and 1.8% respectively; chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry increased by 4.0% and 2.8% respectively. The oil and gas exploitation industry decreased by 6.4% and 15.5% respectively, while the oil, coal and other fuel processing industries decreased by 0.5% and 8.5% respectively.

It is estimated that among the 1.7% year-on-year increase in February, the tail effect of last year's price change was about - 0.1 percentage point, and the impact of new price increase was about 1.8 percentage point.