GCL Energy Technology (002015): Carbon Neutral And Lower Double Line Development

According to a research report released by Southwest Securities, GCL energy technology (002015. SZ) has expanded its new energy operation and comprehensive energy services under the background of carbon neutrality. It is estimated that the EPS of 2020-2022 will be 0.61/0.74/0.91 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 14x / 11x / 9x. The company will be given a 15 times valuation in 2021, corresponding to the target price of 11.1 yuan. It will be covered for the first time and given a "buy" rating.

Southwest Securities pointed out that the company is a leading enterprise in the field of natural gas power generation, with a comprehensive layout of wind power generation, garbage power generation, biomass power generation, coal-fired cogeneration and other fields, and has become a leading new energy power generation operator in China. It is estimated that the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company will exceed 20% in the next three years.

The main viewpoints of Southwest Securities are as follows:

Investment logic: 1) under the carbon peak carbon neutral policy, the proportion of wind and solar operation will be greatly increased, natural gas power generation is expected to grow rapidly, and the company benefits from the high growth of the whole industry. 2) 2020h1 grid connected installed capacity is 3170.64mw, including 2497.14mw gas turbine cogeneration and 215MW wind power. Clean energy supply accounts for 90% of the total. The company has many wind power reserve projects under construction. It is estimated that more than 300 MW will be put into operation after rush installation in 2020. In addition, the company continues to acquire high-quality operating assets, and the growth of natural gas and wind power installation brings major increment to the company. 3) Focusing on the field of new energy power generation, the company has continued to explore areas such as power distribution and distribution, energy storage, power demand side management, data center, etc., and has reserved about 11000 IDC cabinets for filing. The market-oriented electricity sales business has exceeded 13.05 billion kwh, and expanded the comprehensive energy service business. 4) Active exploration of REITs may help revitalize the stock assets, and the follow-up dividend can be expected.

The leading private green energy operators will rise against the trend in 2020. In 2020q1-3, the company realized operating revenue of 8.16 billion yuan (+ 4.5%); realized net profit of 630 million yuan (+ 46.9%); period expense rate was 10.7% (- 0.4pp); gross profit rate was 24.3% (+ 4.1pp), and net interest rate was 11.2% (+ 2.2pp). The epidemic situation has a certain impact on the company's production capacity, but due to the decline of coal and natural gas prices and the improvement of internal operation and management, the company's performance rose compared with the same period. It is estimated that the company has completed 15.67 billion kwh of power generation in the whole year, and the expected net profit attributable to the parent company is 776-888 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 40.2-60.4%, and the net profit after deducting non-profit is 630-720 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 107.1-137.5%.

The cogeneration project constitutes the moat for the company's profit growth, and the wind power reserve under construction is abundant and the increment is expected. 2020h1 company has a grid connected installed capacity of 3170.64mw, including 2497.14mw of gas turbine cogeneration and 332mw of coal-fired cogeneration, accounting for 89.2% of the installed capacity. Cogeneration projects and wind power generation projects in operation, under construction, to be built and to be acquired are reorganized, and the future development increment is expected.

Transform from energy production to comprehensive energy services and build a leading mobile energy service provider. The company plans to sign a strategic cooperation agreement with CICC capital to launch an industrial fund with the theme of "carbon neutrality", with a total scale of no more than 10 billion yuan and an initial scale of about 4 billion yuan. The fund will carry out equity investment around mobile energy ecology, mainly investing in high-quality projects in the upstream and downstream of mobile energy industry chain, such as charging and swapping network, online car Hailing travel platform, intelligent vehicle management platform, battery asset management, battery echelon utilization, etc.

Risk tips: fluctuation risk of cost side, high risk of asset liability ratio, and lower than expected risk of project construction.