In 2021, The Real Estate Market Will Usher In The "Best Start", And The Price Rise In The First Tier Cities Will Drop

In the local high temperature encountered heavy pressure of regulation, the real estate market in the first quarter of this year began to appear high consolidation.

On April 16, the National Bureau of statistics released data showing that from January to March this year, the national commercial housing sales area was 360.07 million square meters, and the sales volume of commercial housing was 3.8 trillion yuan, both hitting a record high in the same period. Other indicators of the real estate market also improved significantly due to better sales.

The hot property market in the first quarter is considered to be the continuation of the market warming since the second half of last year. However, due to the popularity of school district housing and other reasons, the market again appears speculation atmosphere, and some regional markets also appear irrational warming.

Therefore, in the first quarter of this year, hot cities have increased their regulatory policies, and the real estate market has been under the pressure of policy again. By March, the first tier cities that took the lead in regulating and controlling have already achieved results.

According to the housing price data of 70 large and medium-sized cities released on the same day, the price increases of new and second-hand houses in first tier cities fell back in March this year, and after five months of leading the way, the price increase of new houses in first tier cities has been lower than that in second tier cities.

Sales in the eastern region accounted for 60%

According to the data, from January to March this year, the sales area of commercial housing was 360.07 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth of 63.8%; it was 20.7% higher than that of the same period in 2019, with an average growth of 9.9% in two years. The sales volume of commercial housing was 3837.8 billion yuan, up 88.5%, 41.9% compared with the same period in 2019, with an average growth of 19.1% in two years.

The absolute value of the two indicators has reached a record high in the same period of history, that is, at the sales level, the real estate market has had a "best start in history".

Among them, the eastern region is still the largest contributor. In the first quarter of this year, the sales area in the eastern region reached 154.37 million square meters, up 74.3% year on year, accounting for 42.9% of the national total. The eastern region's sales volume was 2.3 trillion yuan, an increase of more than 100%, accounting for nearly 60% of the total national sales.

Other indicators of the real estate market also improved as sales improved. In the first quarter of this year, the national real estate development investment reached 27576.6 billion yuan, up 25.6% year-on-year and 15.9% higher than the same period in 2019. The construction area, newly started area and completed area of real estate enterprises have also increased significantly.

Over the same period, the funds put in place by real estate enterprises reached 4746.5 billion yuan, up 41.4% year on year.

The hot property market in the first quarter is considered to be the continuation of last year's market warming. With the control of the new crown epidemic situation and the implementation of loose monetary policy, from the second half of last year, the market demand that was restrained in the early stage began to release, and the real estate market also entered the heating channel. In 2020, China's real estate sales area and sales amount reached a record high.

Since this year, the property market continues to be hot. Even the Spring Festival holiday, as a traditional off-season, has not really cooled down due to the introduction of the local new year policy. After the Spring Festival, the traditional "little spring" of the real estate market has come, coupled with the stimulation of the heating up of school district housing transactions in hot cities, making the property market hot again.

In this process, some hot cities have experienced irrational warming due to the rapid rise of house prices, such as illegal entry into the market of operating loans, speculation of real estate numbers, hoarding of sales, and so on.

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, pointed out that reviewing this round of real estate market warming, the market hot spot has experienced the transfer from the first tier city to the second tier city. At present, the second tier cities in the East are still hot spots. In addition to the core metropolitan area, the warming range of the third and fourth tier cities is relatively limited.

House price has reached the end of its tether?

Due to the obvious market warming, house prices in large and medium-sized cities also rose in the first quarter. Since this year, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities in China, the number of cities with the price of new houses rising month on month has always been more than 50. By March, the number of second-hand housing and new housing prices rose month on month to 58 and 62 cities, respectively, 3 and 6 more than the previous month.

It is worth noting that in some hot cities, the price of school district housing is rising too fast, which has brought a lot of stimulation to the market. Some people believe that the rise of school district housing is the main reason to stimulate the current round of market warming.

Therefore, in some cities, the regulation policies not only aim at the real estate market itself, but also involve the adjustment of education policies. For example, Shanghai, Hangzhou and Wenzhou have issued policies on increasing the proportion of students allocated. The recent regulation and control policy of Hefei also involves the adjustment of degree. In addition, Hefei has implemented "targeted purchase restrictions" on a large number of school district houses.

In fact, since this year, the property market has been in a period of policy pressure. According to the statistics of Central Plains real estate, since this year, the central and local governments have issued more than 150 real estate regulatory policies. The main features are to rectify intermediary agencies, control business loans and increase land supply.

Since the end of January, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development has supervised and investigated 13 cities, including Guangzhou, Hefei, Ningbo, Dongguan, Nantong, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Beijing, Hangzhou, Wuxi, Chengdu, Xi'an and Nanchang.

By March this year, the first tier cities that started regulation earlier have begun to receive results. According to the data, in March, the selling prices of newly built commercial residential buildings in four first tier cities increased by 0.4% month on month, and the selling prices of second-hand residential buildings rose by 1.0% month on month, with the growth rates falling by 0.1 percentage points compared with the previous month.

The decline in the rise of new house prices is particularly obvious. Since the fourth quarter of last year, the price of new houses in the first tier cities has led the rise in 70 large and medium-sized cities. By March this year, the price increase in the first tier cities was surpassed by the second tier cities. In addition to Guangzhou's high rise (1.0%), the price increases of new houses in Shenzhen, Beijing and Shanghai have dropped to 0.1%, 0.2% and 0.3% respectively.

In contrast, the housing prices in Fuzhou, Xi'an, Hangzhou, Hefei, Ningbo and other cities are slightly higher, but they are not more than the upper limit of 1.0%.

Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of Shell Research Institute, pointed out to the 21st century economic report that with the gradual effect of regulatory policies, the performance of house prices in March can be said to be "the end of the tether", and the overall rise of house prices is expected to shrink in April. According to the data of Shell Research Institute, since April, the turnover of second-hand houses in shell 50 cities has maintained a downward fluctuation adjustment trend, and the second-hand shell house landscape atmosphere index of all line cities has dropped, and the owner's market expectation has weakened.

Many institutions also believe that with the successive introduction of policies such as management and control of operating loans, centralized land supply, purchase and price restriction, market expectations are stabilizing and house prices are expected to gradually return to rationality.

At a press conference on April 16, Liu Aihua, spokesman of the National Bureau of statistics and director of the Department of comprehensive statistics of the national economy, summed up the market in the first quarter: since the beginning of this year, all regions and departments have been keeping a close eye on the new situation and new problems, further adhering to the principle of "houses are used for living, not for speculation", aiming at stabilizing land prices, house prices and stabilizing expectations Effective measures. In the next step, with the construction of indemnificatory rental housing increasing, the development of long-term rental housing market will gradually standardize, and a new pattern of real estate market supply with multi-agent supply, multi-channel security and simultaneous rent and sale will be gradually formed, which is conducive to the stable and healthy development of the real estate market in the whole year.

?