The Pattern Of Power Battery Is Changing: The Value Of "Second-Line Batteries" Such As AVIC Lithium Battery And Yiwei Lithium Energy Needs To Be Reassessed

On May 14, according to media reports, Tesla, an American electric vehicle manufacturer, is negotiating with Chinese power battery supplier Yiwei lithium energy (300014. SZ). Tesla may include Yiwei lithium energy in the supply system of Tesla's Shanghai plant to increase the procurement of low-cost batteries. The partnership may be finalized in the third quarter of this year.

Tesla China has not responded to the incident. On May 16, Yiwei lithium energy issued a clarification notice, saying that as of the disclosure date, it had not made business communication with Tesla on lithium iron phosphate battery, and the above report was groundless.

Previously, Ningde times supplied lithium iron phosphate batteries for domestic model 3 and model y for Tesla Shanghai factory.

"Competition generally lowers prices and reduces the risk of the supply chain without relying too much on an upstream company. Looking for multiple suppliers is a common way to purchase auto parts. " Some people in the automobile industry told reporters of the 21st century economic report.

Taking Wuling Hongguang Mini EV as an example, its batteries come from many battery manufacturers such as Ningde times, Penghui energy and GuoXuan high tech.

In fact, before that, many automobile enterprises have been cooperating with Ningde times, and they are also exploring the possibility of cooperation with second-line battery manufacturers. The battery cell suppliers of GAC ea'an main models have gradually changed from Ningde era to AVIC lithium battery, and the square ternary battery of Yiwei lithium energy has also won the fixed-point project of brilliance BMW.

After the development of the past few years, the pattern of China's power battery industry has initially formed, and the leading enterprise Ningde era occupies half of the country. However, with the rapid growth of China's new energy vehicle market scale, the huge demand for power batteries, the second-line battery manufacturers can also benefit from it.

"In April, China's power battery loading volume was 8.4gwh, up 134% year-on-year. Second tier manufacturers made efforts in April to seize the market share of some leading enterprises. We think that some second tier manufacturers may stand out this year. " Chuancai Securities pointed out in a research report.

Anxin securities also said in a research report that while the leader enjoys the high growth rate dividend of the industry, the enterprise value of high-quality second-line battery needs to be reassessed.

Multiple paths under "one family dominating"

According to the data of China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance, in the first four months of this year, China's power battery loading volume accumulated 31.6 GWH, a year-on-year increase of 241.1%. Among them, the total loading volume of ternary batteries was 19.0 GWH, accounting for 60.0% of the total installed volume, with a year-on-year increase of 173.4%; The total loading volume of LiFePO4 battery was 12.6 GWH, accounting for 39.8% of the total, with a year-on-year increase of 455.9%.

On the whole, two main development paths of power battery have been formed: one is the ternary battery route with high performance; the other is the lithium iron phosphate battery route with low cost and high safety. This is also the competition of the whole industry.

However, since this year, with the promotion of A00 class electric vehicles represented by Wuling Hongguang Mini EV, the market scale of lithium iron phosphate battery has increased rapidly.

From the technical difficulty point of view, the threshold of LiFePO4 battery is low, and the main competitive core is the cost control ability of each manufacturer.

However, according to Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the national ride Association, the growth of lithium iron phosphate Market reflects the characteristics of diversified demand and the growth of mainstream market. Ternary lithium battery will still be the main competitive field of the industry in the future, with greater potential for technology improvement.

From the perspective of market structure, the market dominance of Ningde era has been formed. In the first four months, the loading volume of power batteries reached 16.04gwh, accounting for 50.7% of the market. BYD ranked second with 4.23gwh, accounting for 13.4% of the city. There is an obvious gap between them.

At present, BYD's pure electric vehicle is gradually completing the switch from ternary battery to blade battery. In terms of external battery supply, BYD has provided three technical solutions, namely ternary, lithium iron phosphate and blade battery. From the perspective of technical route layout, BYD's layout is relatively perfect. At present, BYD battery suppliers include Ford and Hongqi.

However, Li Yunfei, general manager of BYD brand and public relations, revealed in an interview with 21st century economic reporter that Fudi battery still has many partners. As an important part of the car, the battery should participate in the development process of the body customization in the early stage, and also need to verify. After the verification, there are business negotiations, fixed-point and contract terms need to be tested. This requires a process. At present, it is accelerating.

In addition to LG Chemical, the second tier manufacturers are mainly local enterprises. Among them, more noteworthy manufacturers include AVIC lithium battery, GuoXuan high tech, Funeng technology, Yiwei lithium energy, honeycomb energy, etc.

Specifically, several second-line battery companies have chosen different development paths.

Since this year, the fastest growing second-line battery factory is AVIC lithium battery, and its main product is ternary battery. In the past April, the domestic power battery loading volume of AVIC lithium battery exceeded that of Panasonic, ranking the third, with a market share of 9.3%. This is mainly due to the growth of its main supplier, gac-ea'an. Data shows that, since this year, the penetration rate of AVIC lithium battery products in gac-ea'an has reached more than 90%.

In addition, AVIC lithium battery has passed Smart's mass production fixed point, and has begun to supply matching batteries to GAC Honda and GAC Toyota in batches.

Yiwei lithium energy's business layout includes ternary soft package, lithium iron phosphate, ternary square battery and other types. In 2020, the net profit of Yiwei lithium energy Co., Ltd. will reach 1.652 billion yuan, including 855 million yuan from the main business, showing a good profitability.

This is mainly due to the multi-point flowering of lithium-ion batteries, especially the quantity of soft pack power batteries. The major customers of Sanyuan soft package are Hyundai Kia. Besides commercial vehicle field, LiFePO4 is also developing the passenger car market. In addition, the square ternary battery of Yiwei lithium energy has won the fixed-point project of BMW Brilliance, and the 48V system has won the fixed point of BMW global and Jaguar Land Rover.

The main advantage of GuoXuan high tech is lithium iron phosphate battery. With the large shareholder Volkswagen Group speeding up the transformation of electrification in China, the loading volume of GuoXuan high tech will also be increased to a certain extent in the next few years.

It is worth noting that the above-mentioned second-line local battery enterprises have entered the battery supply chain of some multinational automobile enterprises, instead of only supplying local automobile enterprises. This also proves that the local second-line battery enterprises also have strong product force and product supporting ability, and have sustainable development.

Speed up binding with main engine factory

Among the second-line battery manufacturers that have begun to take shape in the current market, AVIC lithium battery's rapid start-up is mainly due to its increased battery penetration in gac-ea'an. Behind GuoXuan high-tech and Funeng, Volkswagen Group and Daimler are the shareholders, while Great Wall Motors is behind honeycomb energy.

In other words, from the perspective of the survival status of the second tier enterprises, the basis of most enterprises' business development is to reach a more in-depth cooperative relationship with one or two automobile enterprises, so as to realize the growth of their own scale driven by the growth of each other's scale.

This shows that the support of main engine plant is important for the survival and development of second-line battery enterprises. However, from another perspective, cooperation with second-line battery enterprises is also very important for the host plant to ensure the health of their battery supply chain. They are mutually reinforcing.

"At present, the survival state of the second-line battery enterprises can better reflect the importance of automobile enterprises, and objectively verify a path, that is, under the condition of basically stable products, if the scale of automobile enterprises is pulled up, it is necessary for both sides to form a stable supply of shares and control the second and third line battery enterprises." Senior auto industry analyst Zhu Yulong said.

In fact, since this year, automobile enterprises such as Volkswagen Group have also begun to build their own battery plants to cope with the increasing demand for batteries.

In this case, while maintaining the battery supply relationship with the first-line battery enterprises, through the cooperation with the second-line battery enterprises, we can quickly make up for the technical shortcomings of the main engine plant in battery chemistry and other related fields, and improve the capacity of self-produced batteries as soon as possible.

For the development of the second-line battery enterprises, once they have the endorsement of large enterprises, it will be helpful to the value judgment of enterprises in the capital market or in the market competition.

At the same time, there is no doubt that BYD will speed up the power battery external supply, and the second-line battery enterprises will deeply bind the host plant, which will bring certain impact to the current industry leader Ningde era. Several second-line battery manufacturers stand out with the support of the main engine plant, and the dominant market pattern of Ningde era will also change.

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