Half A Year After The Implementation Of Foreign Brand "Restriction" Policy: Sales Of New Energy Vehicles In Shanghai Soared By 3.5 Times

? ? ? Since the release of the new policy of "restricting the use of foreign brands" last year, in the past six months, the sales of new energy vehicles in Shanghai exceeded 132000, a substantial increase of 3.5 times over the same period of last year. In only six months, it was 3% more than that of the whole year last year.

? ? ? Shanghai's "C position" in the new energy vehicle market has also been properly established. At present, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales in this regional market in the national sales volume has increased from 10% to 13%, and the monthly sales even exceed the sum of the sales volume of Beijing and Shenzhen.

On October 24, 2020, Shanghai issued traffic management regulations, and the restrictions on foreign license plates in Shanghai will be upgraded. From November 2, 2020, the time limit for foreign license plates on Shanghai inner ring viaduct will be extended; After the May Day holiday in 2021, the ground roads in inner ring will also be opened to the public.

? ? ? The new policy of traffic restriction has an immediate effect on the sales of new energy vehicles. One or two days after the new deal was issued, 21st century economic reporter noticed that new energy vehicle stores in Shanghai had become popular, especially Tesla, whose daily order volume exceeded 80, equivalent to four times the previous one.

According to the follow-up data, the promotion of new energy vehicle sales by the new ban policy is not only vigorous at the beginning, but also full of momentum. Tesla is not the only one whose sales volume has increased more than doubled. According to data vision data, in the six months from November 2020, the average monthly sales of new energy vehicles in Shanghai reached 22000. Compared with the previous half a year, the average monthly sales volume increased by 142%. Among them, Tesla increased by 115%, BYD and Weilai increased by 214% and 161%, respectively, while Roewe and Volkswagen increased by 84% and 129%.

It should be pointed out that pure electric vehicles still account for a considerable proportion of Shanghai's new energy vehicle market, accounting for more than 60%. After the release of the new policy on foreign license plate restrictions, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and extended range electric vehicles have also ushered in significant growth, but the overall scale is still not too large.

In addition, in February this year, Shanghai announced the latest implementation measures to encourage the purchase and use of new energy vehicles, setting a deadline (before 2023) for the green license box of plug-in hybrid models, and the license bonus of plug-in hybrid models entered the "countdown". However, as far as the above policies are concerned, they have not led to a significant and explosive growth of such vehicles.

What changes have taken place in Shanghai's new energy vehicle market under various policies?

Shanghai new energy vehicle market "big explosion"

In the half year after the release of the new policy, the sales of new energy vehicles in Shanghai ushered in an all-round "big explosion".

In terms of scale, in the six months from November 2020 to April 2021, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in Shanghai has reached 132200, with a year-on-year increase of 349.1%; In terms of structure, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Shanghai reached 32%, an increase of 20 percentage points over the same period of last year.

However, in the first half of 2020, the market as a whole was greatly affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, so the same specific base number was low. According to the nationwide data, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in the same time line was 1.062 million, which also increased by 210% year-on-year.

Since May 2020, the market has gradually recovered from the impact of the new crown epidemic, and new energy vehicles are no exception. Even compared with the market after bottoming out and rebounding, the sales performance of new energy vehicles in Shanghai in the past six months is still very bright. In the six months since November 2020, the average monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles in Shanghai has reached 22000, an increase of 142% from less than 10000 vehicles in the six months before November 2020.

It is obvious that the new policy of foreign license plate restriction will promote the sales of new energy vehicles. The new deal was released in late October 2020. In November, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in Shanghai reached 24000, a month on month increase of 135%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in that month also rose to 33% from 19% of last month.

The new policy of foreign license plate restriction has accelerated the release of the demand for new energy vehicles in Shanghai, and also made Shanghai an undisputed "large household" in the national new energy vehicle market. The average sales volume of 22000 vehicles in the past six months is not only an unprecedented level in Shanghai itself, but also in the whole country.

In fact, Shanghai was originally one of the largest new energy vehicle markets in China, but in the past few years, its sales of new energy vehicles accounted for about 10% of the total sales volume of the country. After the release of the new policy on foreign license plate restrictions, its market share has increased by 3-4%.

At the same time, in the monthly sales list of new energy vehicles, Shanghai has been ranked first for several months in a row, and can lead the second place with a significant advantage. Looking at the performance of the past few months, Shanghai's sales exceeded the sum of the second and third place sales. Judging from the overall performance of the past half year, Beijing and Shenzhen are the two regional markets of new energy vehicles after Shanghai, but the total sales volume of the two markets is 110300, less than that of 132200 vehicles in Shanghai.

In terms of market share, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Shanghai is also significantly higher than that in other regions. Affected by a wave of sales growth at the end of last year, Shanghai's penetration rate of new energy vehicles has reached 20% in 2020 and more than 30% this year. At present, the average level of mega cities has just reached 20% (Shenzhen is 25%, second only to Shanghai).

On May 17, Zheng Fu, global senior partner of Roland Berger and vice president of Greater China, told the 21st century economic reporter that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Shanghai is expected to further increase in the future, because under the current policy, the license plate of new energy vehicles is only open and almost unlimited.

Pure electricity and plug-in hybrid?

In Shanghai, both pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (including increased range) can enjoy special license plate quota. After the new policy was issued, both of them have ushered in significant growth.

In comparison, the growth rate of pure electric vehicles is better than plug-in hybrid vehicles. In the past six months, Shanghai's pure electric vehicles sold 81600 vehicles, an increase of 407% year-on-year, and 50600 plug-in hybrid vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 279%.

In terms of market share, the market share of pure electric vehicles has further increased to 62% from 57% before, while plug-in hybrid vehicles have decreased from 43% to 38%.

However, it is difficult to draw a conclusion that the new policy of foreign license plate restrictions has led to the rise and fall of plug-in hybrid vehicles and pure electric vehicles. On the one hand, the change of their share is not very obvious. On the other hand, the market share adjustment of plug-in hybrid models has started as early as the second half of 2020. With more pure electric new cars coming on the market, consumers' acceptance of pure electric vehicles is also increasing.

In the face of the average sales of 8436 vehicles in the past six months, Zheng believes that "plug-in hybrid has basically reached its peak." The main reason is that the pure electricity trend of the supply side is gradually clear, and as a transitional product, the policy dividend of plug-in hybrid is also the first to enter the countdown.

At the beginning of February this year, Shanghai issued a new round of measures to encourage the purchase and use of new energy vehicles. The new policy proposes that from January 1, 2023, individuals or unit users who purchase plug-in hybrid (including increased range) vehicles will no longer be issued with special license plate quota. This means that it is less than two years since plug-in hybrid models have been "green" in Shanghai.

However, looking at the above policies alone, the plug-in hybrid market has not been significantly affected. Since February, the sales of plug-in hybrid models in Shanghai have been constantly adjusted. First, the sales volume of plug-in hybrid models in Shanghai has dropped by 46% to 5007 units on a month on month basis (also due to the influence of the Spring Festival), then increased by 49% in March to 7455 vehicles, and then dropped to 6971 vehicles in April, The overall sales volume is not as high as that of 10000 vehicles since November last year.

Consumers' ambivalence towards plug-in hybrid models is also very obvious. They can quickly get to the green brand in the short term, and there is no mileage anxiety of pure electric vehicles. However, at the same time, they have higher prices and lower subsidies. In the long run, they also have obvious shortcomings. Most of them are fuel vehicles, and their use economy is lower.

Broken down into various brands, the top five sales of Shanghai's new energy vehicles are basically stable on Tesla, Roewe, BYD, Volkswagen and Weilai. In the past six months, the average monthly sales of the above five brands were 5226, 3317, 2871, 1260 and 1580, accounting for 65% of the total sales volume, respectively, which increased by 115%, 84%, 214%, 129% compared with the average monthly sales of the previous six months 161%。

Among them, Tesla mainly relies on pure electric models model 3 and model y, Roewe mainly relies on plug-in hybrid models such as rx5 eplus, ei6 Max and EI 5, BYD mainly relies on pure tram models such as Han EV, plug-in hybrid models such as Tang PHEV and Han DM, Volkswagen mainly relies on plug-in hybrid models such as Passat PHEV, and Weilai mainly relies on pure electric vehicles such as ES6 and ec6.

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