The Influence Of Cost Supply And Demand On Polyester Staple Market

The maintenance equipment has been implemented in succession, and the space for processing polyester staple fiber is still low. However, the downstream demand is weak. This week, the operating rate of yarn enterprises has declined. How will the follow-up polyester staple fiber market run?

The recent rise is due to the strong support of the continuous rise of oil price on the polymerization cost. However, since the middle and late May, the price of polyester staple fiber has continued to be consolidated between 6550-6850 yuan / ton, and the fluctuation space is not more than 300 yuan. Therefore, this week's upward trend is the same. Although the market price rose from 6700 yuan to 6850 yuan, it also fell from 6850 yuan to 6725 yuan in the second half of the week. The characteristics of interval volatility in the stage is very obvious, so will the follow-up market also maintain interval Volatility?

First of all, the cost logic, as the short fiber spot processing fee space continues to be low, the market has been following the cost logic in the short term, but the strong cost support logic comes from the high level of oil and the tight spot supply of PTA and glycol. But let alone the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in the oil sector, PTA and ethylene glycol are difficult to have sustained upward action under the background of increasing supply and poor demand; Therefore, the impact of cost logic on the follow-up has been weakened.

Second, look at the supply and demand. First, look at the supply. Recently, the short fiber factory maintenance devices have been implemented. At present, only two sets of Jiangyin units have not been overhauled. However, the market has long anticipated the news of factory maintenance, and the rate of subsequent industry operation has been limited. Moreover, there is the phenomenon of device restart during this period, so it is difficult for the supply side to reproduce strong support; In terms of demand, although the mills just need support, domestic demand itself is weak in the off-season market, and foreign trade orders are still hindered by factors such as high sea freight and tight containers. Under hot and humid weather, the operating rate of spinning factories and grey cloth factories has shown a small decline, so it is difficult to have explosive demand growth for staple fibers.

On the whole, although the space of staple fiber processing cost is still low, with the increase of TA and eg domestic supply, the subsequent cost support logic will be weakened; In terms of supply and demand, although the concentration of equipment maintenance has led to a small amount of stock removal in the industry, the overall demand support is still insufficient under the off-season market. Therefore, the short fiber market may not perform well from June to July, and the trend of interval fluctuation is still a probability event.