Super Boom In The First Half Of 2021

The performance change of Jinjing technology is of typical significance.

The company's income mainly comes from glass and soda ash. According to the performance forecast on June 29, its net profit after deducting non-profit in the first half of the year will increase by 576 million yuan to 606 million yuan, 840% to 884% year-on-year. The core driving force is the increase in profit margins brought about by the rise in glass prices.

In this regard, the company also said that "if there is a correction in glass prices, the company's performance will be affected.".

Nevertheless, the company's share price has been up and down for two consecutive days, driven by a surge in short-term results.

This is not a single case. The performance changes of other cycle stocks are also fully deducting the above logic. It can be predicted that in the next half year report forecast and disclosure stage, there will be a large number of cyclical listed companies to achieve the "best in history" results and usher in comprehensive prosperity.

The background is that the global economy accelerated to recover in the second quarter, the demand for upstream raw materials increased, and the overall price was further increased on the basis of the high level in the first quarter, driving the sales volume and price of cyclical industry companies to increase simultaneously.

However, due to the disturbance of pricing mechanism, price increase and profit margin changes, there are some differences in the performance elasticity of sub industries within the cycle industry.

In addition, in terms of the operation of the bulk market as a whole, the business cycle position, operation rhythm and future industry trend of the subdivided varieties will also be different.

Therefore, based on steel, coal, chemical and nonferrous industries, this issue of "hard core investment research" not only shows the profit trend of the industry in the second quarter, but also forecasts the medium and short-term prosperity trend of some industries through industry supply-demand relationship and product price prediction.

Coal, coke and steel industry chain making "the best in history"

In terms of the domestic steel and coal industries, the first half of the year was driven by an obvious price rise, in which the total profit and growth rate of the iron and steel industry reached a record high.

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to May this year, the overall profit of the steel industry was 228.23 billion yuan, accounting for 92.6% of the total profit of 246.46 billion yuan in 2020.

Behind it is the rapid rise in steel prices. In the second quarter of this year, the Wenhua steel plate index has broken through the peak of the "four trillion" period.

Although the cost side of iron ore and coke prices also rose sharply in the same period, but from the profit trend of ton steel, the profit margin of steel enterprises in the first and second quarter of this year has been rising.

According to Lange Steel's calculation data, in the first quarter of this year, the average profit per ton of seven major steel products, including billet, screw thread and hot-rolled coil, was 165 yuan / ton. As of June 18, this figure had risen to 729 yuan / ton.

The increase of gross profit rate is the first driving force, and the production and sales data play a icing on the cake. Take steel as an example. From January to May this year, the cumulative domestic output reached 576.57 million tons, up 16.8% year on year.

Therefore, the semi annual report of listed steel enterprises continues to maintain the trend of month on month growth. If we only count the 8 steel enterprises that have "updated" the performance forecast since June, the average growth rate of the lower limit of the semi annual forecast net profit reaches 399%, and the growth rate of four companies, such as Angang Steel, Shougang and Benxi Steel, is more than 500%.

The situation in the coal industry is similar. The increase in the output of the steel industry has led to an increase in coke consumption. In the first half of the year, Meijin energy predicted a profit growth of at least 16 times, and 1.3 billion yuan (median forecast net profit) also exceeded the supply side reform stage, reaching the best level in the same period in history.

The continuous recovery and growth of the macro-economy indirectly stimulated the demand of the power coal and coal chemical industry. The impact of the supply side contraction brought by the environmental protection pressure in the first half of the year has caused the coal price and demand to continue to rise. This is explained very clearly in the semi annual report of Guanghui energy.

Based on the successful completion of 36 days of annual maintenance from May 8 to June 12, the sales volume of the company's main business products in the first half of the year still achieved a substantial growth. From January to may, the company has achieved 7.2575 million tons of external sales, which is expected to reach 8.67 million tons in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year increase of about 60%.

The average sales price of main business products in the first half of 2021 is significantly higher than that of the same period of last year. Especially since the second quarter, the prices of domestic LNG, methanol, coal and coal-based oil products have increased significantly along with the market. The company's sales prices have continued to rise to varying degrees. The average sales price of coal in Xinjiang has increased by about 10% year-on-year.

The increase in volume and price led to an increase of 109.22% to 116.97% in net profit of Guanghui energy, exceeding the profit scale of the whole year in 2020.

To sum up, the 21st Century Capital Research Institute believes that under the influence of the rising volume and price as well as the low base number of some companies in the past, such cases as Angang Steel and Meijin energy, which reached a record high in the first half of the year, will continue to appear in the steel and coal industries.

However, due to the obvious "independent pricing" characteristics of the above-mentioned products, the price operation is easily affected by domestic policies, and currently it is in the stage of expanding the scope of regulation. For example, recently, the national development and Reform Commission also stated that "with the growth of hydropower and solar power generation in summer, as well as the increase of coal production and import, the contradiction between supply and demand of coal will tend to ease, It is expected that coal prices will enter a downward channel in July... "

Under the pressure of regulation and control, even if the industry fundamentals can provide support, the follow-up price rise space has been unable to compare with the first half of the year, and the later boom is facing a downward risk.

Soda ash, titanium dioxide business cycle continues

The chemical industry is divided into petrochemical industry, chemical raw materials, chemical products and chemical fibers.

Among them, petrochemicals and chemical fibers are closely linked to crude oil prices. In the second quarter, against the background of the continuous rise in international oil prices, the industry's profitability has strong certainty, but there are some differences in the performance elasticity of some industrial chain links due to supply and demand factors.

In terms of the performance forecast since the end of June, the two sub industries of soda ash and titanium dioxide in the field of chemical raw materials and products have reported good news collectively.

The core driving force is still product price.

According to the data of Everbright futures, as of June 22, the market price of heavy caustic soda in North China was 2100 yuan / ton, up 40% compared with 1500 yuan / ton at the beginning of 2021.

By comparing the profit and spot price trend of soda ash enterprises, the agency found that the correlation between the two trends was more than 90%. In other words, the profitability of soda ash production enterprises is little affected by the cost fluctuation, and more depends on the price of soda ash. If soda ash rises, the enterprise's profit will rise, and vice versa.

Since 2006, the spot market price of heavy caustic soda fluctuates in the range of 1100-2500 yuan / ton. At present, the domestic price of 2000 yuan to 2100 yuan / ton is at the second highest level in history.

In theory, corporate profits should also be at a historical high level. For example, Yuanxing Energy Co., Ltd. is expected to turn a loss in half a year. The net profit of the current period will increase by at least 1585% to 1.15 billion yuan. However, the company is a coal chemical and natural gas chemical enterprise, and its income structure is relatively complex, and the soda ash income accounts for only about 21%.

In contrast, the income concentration of Listed Companies in titanium dioxide industry is higher, and the performance elasticity will be stronger in the upward stage of industry prosperity.

As of June 29, titanium dioxide enterprises that have disclosed their performance forecast include anada, Huiyun titanium industry, CNKI titanium dioxide and longmang Baili, and their profit growth rate is mostly around 100%.

In view of this, the column "21 hard core investment and research" on June 17 has made a prediction. Supported by the substantial increase of export data and the rise of the cost of titanium concentrate, sulfuric acid and other raw materials to a 10-year high level, the domestic rutile titanium dioxide price has risen to the absolute high price area since 2005, "under the background of the systematic improvement of industry prosperity, The profit elasticity of titanium dioxide industry companies in 2021 will also be extremely outstanding. "

More importantly, petrochemical, natural gas chemical and coal chemical industries are in the downstream of basic raw materials, so the cost of raw material price rise has a certain lag. Reflected in the price level, its rising cycle may be slightly longer than that of crude oil and other basic raw materials.

In terms of the above two products, the price in the second half of the year is still not ruled out.

Among them, the prosperity of titanium dioxide industry evolves, referring to the article "the prosperity continues to rise, the price of titanium dioxide jumps by 60%, longmang Bailey's profit will set a record high, and the" expected difference "is significant.

In terms of soda ash, Everbright futures believes that in 2021, the soda industry is in the process of a new round of cycle start-up. Guided by the "carbon peak" and "carbon neutral" policies in the national "14th five year plan", the development of China's new energy industry and photovoltaic industry will enter a blowout growth mode. The demand release of photovoltaic glass for heavy alkali will also drive the price of soda ash to open a new upward channel. The industry will be in a boom cycle in the next 2-3 years.

Industrial metals and rare metals rise together, and there is a big difference in economic fluctuation

In the nonferrous industry, there are only a few listed companies that update the semi annual report forecast, with an estimated net profit of 1.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 200%.

However, driven by inflation pushing up the price of non-ferrous metals, the earnings growth of industrial metals and some rare metal industry companies in the second quarter is more certain.

First of all, industrial metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, and lead have continued to rise or high in the second quarter of this year. Corresponding to the level of enterprise operation, the average sales price of their products is bound to further increase.

According to the statistics of 21st Century Capital Research Institute, in the second quarter of 2021 (as of June 29), the average price of LME copper was 9753 US dollars / ton (up 79.8% year-on-year), the average price of LME aluminum was 2423 US dollars / ton (up 58.1% year-on-year), the average price of LME zinc was 2937 dollars / ton (up 48.6% year-on-year), and the average price of LME lead was 2147 US dollars / ton (up 26.3% year-on-year).

The collective rise of industrial metals in the second quarter will continue to drive the expansion of absolute profit of relevant industries.

However, such as Zijin mining, Jiangxi copper and other industry leaders, the second quarter of 2020 profit has improved, the current profit base is significantly better than the first quarter of the same year.

The above data changes correspond to the second quarter of 2021, and its profit growth rate may be less than the first quarter report. In contrast, small-scale, high concentration of non-ferrous industry companies, performance flexibility may be higher.

In terms of rare metals, listed companies represented by lithium and cobalt are expected to maintain a month on month increase trend in the second quarter compared with the first quarter. The profit growth rate of lithium industry is expected to be higher than that of cobalt industry companies.

Wind data shows that since the second quarter, the price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate has always maintained around 85500 yuan / ton, while lithium hydroxide has risen to 94000 yuan per ton from 74000 yuan at the end of March.

In terms of enterprise pricing, the long-term orders of Ganfeng lithium and Tianqi lithium are adjusted on a quarterly basis, and short-term orders are "in line with the market". The average sales price in the second quarter will increase month on month, which will further increase the profit margin.

According to the expected value of Ganfeng lithium's first quarter report, the company's median net profit in the second quarter was 524 million yuan, only 48 million yuan higher than that in the first quarter. Therefore, the company's official semi annual report still does not rule out the possibility of exceeding market expectations.

Similar to its product structure, Tianqi lithium, with a higher gross margin, is expected to officially usher in a profit turning point in the second quarter, and the company's net profit may turn positive.

Different from lithium products, the cobalt price surged sharply in February this year, and then remained at a high level in the second quarter. The average price is still expected to increase compared with the first quarter, but the growth rate is weaker than that of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide. Corresponding to the financial reports of listed companies, that is, the growth rate of corporate profits is weaker than that of lithium product manufacturers.

It should be pointed out that the profit trend of industrial metals and rare metals companies in the medium and short term may be significantly differentiated. The reason is that the core driving force of this round of price rise is different.

For industrial metals, the rising price of industrial metals has brought about an inflationary price rise brought about by abnormal global liquidity. In addition, copper, aluminum and other varieties are priced in the international market and priced in US dollars. The weakening of the US dollar has boosted the strength of industrial metals. Even LME copper broke the $10000 mark in the second quarter, setting a record high.

In the future, the Fed's exit from monetary easing is a big probability event, but when it will be implemented has not been determined. At present, the market generally expects that at the end of this year and the beginning of next year, once the Federal Reserve starts, the core driving force of this round of industrial metals will disappear.

Lithium, cobalt and other rare metals are different. Although the price rise has the factor of abundant liquidity, it is more driven by its own capacity cycle and the outbreak of terminal demand. In the short and medium term, it is difficult to see too obvious changes on both sides of supply and demand, and the industry prosperity rate can continue.

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