Shortage Of Chips Leads To Short Supply Of Automobiles: Price Rise Of "Golden Nine Silver Ten" Vehicles May Continue

? ? ? Recently, affected by the spread of delta variant virus in Southeast Asia, Malaysia, which is the key area of chip industry chain, has a serious epidemic situation. The supply of automobile chips has been in short supply for nearly a year. The global automobile industry is facing a huge impact.

? ? ? For some time to come, Toyota, Volkswagen, Ford, GM and other auto companies have announced that they will reduce automobile production in different parts of the world.

According to auto forecast solutions, as of August 9 this year, 5.85 million cars have been cut worldwide due to chip shortage. Among them, 1122000 vehicles were reduced in the Chinese market. It is estimated that the global automobile production will decrease by more than 7 million in 2021. And the impact will continue until next spring.

Affected by the shortage of automobile chips, the production and sales volume of China's automobile market has been declining for three consecutive months. In the coming auto sales season, "gold nine silver ten", the situation of insufficient supply in the whole market is hard to reverse.

? ? ?“ Three consecutive months of decline is expected. We predict that in the next few months of 2021, car sales will still be negative year-on-year, but the annual cumulative sales will still be higher than last year. " On August 11, Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of China Automobile Industry Association, told reporters of the 21st century economic report.

In the first seven months of this year, China's automobile production and sales reached 14.44 million and 14.756 million, respectively, up 17.2% and 19.3% year-on-year. This is due to the low base affected by the epidemic in the first half of last year. In recent months, the cumulative growth rate has continued to narrow.

Previously, CAAC predicted that the total auto sales volume in 2021 will be about 27 million, with a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. However, due to the huge changes brought about by the shortage of chips, the annual automobile production and sales may not meet the expectations.

Automobile enterprises reduce production in large areas

On August 19, Toyota Motor Co., a Japanese auto maker, said it planned to cut its global production by 40% in September due to a shortage of car chips, with a global production reduction of about 360000 vehicles (about 140000 in Japan and 220000 overseas). However, Toyota said the massive shutdown will not affect the full year's production plan. At present, GAC Toyota and FAW Toyota have not disclosed whether their production plan has been adjusted.

Since August 23, Volkswagen Group's world's largest factory in Wolfsburg, Germany, began to implement a five-day production reduction plan, during which only one production shift was started. In addition, other brands of the Volkswagen Group have also implemented production reduction plans. Audi's two factories in Germany have extended their summer break by a week, while Spanish brand SIAT has also stopped some car assembly work at its Barcelona plant.

In China, it has been rumored that FAW Volkswagen Audi will significantly reduce the production plans of A4L, A6L and q5l. In this regard, Audi said to the 21st century economic reporter that it would not stop production in a large area, but it was indeed affected by the shortage of chip supply.

Ford Motor Corp. will temporarily close its Kansas City plant, which makes its most popular pickup F-150, because of a shortage of chip related parts.

In China, Japanese and German cars, which have performed well in the past two years, are most affected by the shortage of chips.

From the production and sales situation in recent months, FAW Toyota and GAC Toyota are affected by the shortage of chips to a certain extent.

Honda, another Japanese car company, has two joint ventures in China, one of the companies most affected by the chip shortage in the country.

In July this year, the output of GAC Honda was only 48100 units, down 48.01% year-on-year, and the sales volume was 60500 units, a year-on-year decrease of 15.71%. The output of Dongfeng Honda in the same month was only 38400, with a year-on-year decrease of 55.62%, and the sales volume of 41700 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 48.67%. The output of the two enterprises seriously failed to keep up with the sales volume. In addition, earlier this month, Dongfeng Honda's factory in Wuhan was temporarily shut down due to the domestic epidemic.

"The inventory of civic is relatively good, but the inventory of CR-V, xr-v and other models is relatively tight, so it takes about a month to collect the car." On August 23, a dealer of Dongfeng Honda told the reporter of the 21st century economic report. Some car owners said on the automobile vertical website platform that they had not mentioned the car after ordering under CR-V for more than two months, and there were also a lot of consumers asking for the message of "when can I leave?".

Nissan, another major Japanese car company, also saw its output in China drop by more than 30% in August.

In addition, due to the impact of chip shortage, SAIC Volkswagen's production and sales have declined for several consecutive months, and FAW Volkswagen's sales volume in July also dropped by more than 30%. A salesman at a FAW Volkswagen Audi 4S store in Beijing told 21st century economic news that if you want to buy domestic models such as A4L, A6L and q5l, they can't pick up the cars before the national day. After that, the collection cycle may become longer.

In the coming months, joint venture vehicle companies will face a more severe test due to the aggravation of chip shortage caused by the outbreak in Malaysia.

In addition to joint venture brands, many independent brands are also facing the dilemma of core shortage. On August 18, Gan Jiayue, CEO of Geely Automobile Group, said at the mid-term performance conference of 2021 that due to the lack of chip supply, there were almost no cars for sale in its geometric electric vehicles, and some dealers had to start selling their cars on display.

Although Geely has taken multiple measures to deal with the shortage of chips, Geely still says that there are still huge variables when the shortage of chips can be eased.

Terminal sales promotion decreased

"In the terminal market, due to the output of automobile enterprises can not keep up with, the sales promotion efforts of dealers have decreased, and the terminal transaction price has increased." On August 23, Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the all China Federation of rides, said in an interview with the reporter of the 21st century economic report.

A number of auto dealers and auto sales personnel told reporters that the current sales promotion efforts have declined more than in the first half of the year and in previous years.

"The best-selling car offers are very small. We are not so big sales pressure in previous years, because the stock of cars is limited. Now, the cars assigned to each store by the manufacturer are only about 70% of those in previous years, and the best-selling cars are selling very fast. " A car salesman with a joint venture brand told the 21st century economic reporter.

However, from the current situation, the shortage of automobile chips was very serious in the third quarter, which seriously affected the production rhythm of automobile enterprises. According to the forecast, the automobile production in August, September and October will still decline, and the car market is not optimistic.

"In the past, auto companies allocated the most cars to dealers in September and October. But now there is not enough car supply. The manufacturers have a lot less cars for dealers. At present, many of our orders in July have not been completed yet. The vehicles that arrive in September and October should also be delivered to the customers who ordered in August. We don't sell cars in stock. If consumers can accept it, they will order first and then wait in line to pick up the car. We can't wait, and we don't have much to do. " A Dongfeng Honda salesman told the 21st century economic reporter.

However, he is not particularly worried that consumers will choose other brands because they need to wait“ In the past, we would compete with other brands through sales promotion, but the situation of the main competitive products and joint venture cars was similar to each other. We had to wait to buy a car. If the waiting time is too long, there is really no way for customers to choose other brands. "

The response of all parties is not as good as that of previous years.

From the perspective of automobile consumption inertia, September and October are the traditional peak sales seasons. In previous years, in this period of time, in order to complete the sales task of the manufacturer, dealers will give a better discount rate to attract consumers. It's also a better time for consumers to buy a car.

A number of car sales personnel told the 21st century economic report that under the situation of tight supply, the preferential policies in September and October this year will not be increased as in previous years.

A salesman told the reporter that from the price point of view, now is not the best time to buy a car. Some cars are even twenty or thirty thousand more expensive than last year. At the same time, the impact of chip shortage on automobile production will continue, and the generally "firm" price will continue for some time.

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