Overseas Consumer Confidence Plummets, New Flowers To Be Picked

Last week, domestic and foreign cotton prices rose and fell, and the weekly average price was still higher than last week's level; The price of domestic cotton yarn decreased slightly with the rise of cotton price, while the price of foreign yarn continued to rise; Polyester staple prices continue to fall.

1、 The average price of domestic cotton was still higher than that of last week. At the beginning of the week, China was still immersed in the atmosphere of high expectation of new cotton opening scale. After Wednesday, the overseas financial market fell sharply, and most commodities were sold off, leading to the domestic cotton price rising and falling. From August 16 to 20, 2021, the average settlement price of the main cotton futures contracts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 18143 yuan / ton, an increase of 341 yuan / ton or 1.9% over the previous week; The average price of national cotton price B index, which represents the market price of standard lint in mainland China, was 18261 yuan / ton, up 568 yuan / ton or 3.2% over the previous week.

2、 The international cotton price rose and fell back, with the average price higher than last week. At the beginning of the week, heavy rainfall in the cotton producing areas in the United States caused supply concerns, and funds continued to promote the international rise; After Wednesday, U.S. retail sales and other data fell sharply, the global commodity market fell sharply, and international cotton prices fell in response. From August 16 to 20, 2021, the average settlement price of Cotton Futures (ice) main contracts of Intercontinental Exchange was 94.2 cents / pound, up 1.78 cents / pound or 1.9% compared with the previous week; The average price of international cotton index (m), which represents the average CIF price of imported cotton in China's main ports, was 106.16 cents / pound, up 2.08 cents / pound or 2.0% over the previous week. The import cost of RMB 17105 yuan / ton (calculated by 1% tariff, including port miscellaneous and freight), increased 327 yuan / ton or 1.9% compared with the previous week. The international cotton price is 1156 yuan / ton lower than that of domestic cotton price, and the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices is 915 yuan / ton larger than last week.

3、 The transaction price of reserve cotton increased steadily. Last week, the auction of reserve cotton ran smoothly and the transaction price rose steadily. From August 16 to 20, 2021, the average transaction price of reserve cotton was 17879 yuan / ton, which was 416 yuan / ton, or 2.38%, higher than last week; Among them, the average transaction price of Xinjiang cotton was 17994 yuan / ton, up 463 yuan / ton or 2.64% over last week; The average transaction price of real estate cotton was 17672 yuan / ton, up 354 yuan / ton or 2.05% over last week.

4、 Domestic cotton yarn prices rose first and then fell, while international cotton yarn prices continued to rise. Last week, lint prices rose and fell, driving cotton yarn to rise rapidly and then slightly weakened. Most cotton spinning mills maintain low cotton yarn inventory. It is heard that some yarn traders are still hoarding goods; Due to the impact of the epidemic, maritime cargo transport continued to be tight, supporting the price of imported yarn continued to rise. At present, the price of conventional yarn is lower than that of domestic yarn 535 yuan / ton; After the rise of cotton and cotton yarn in the upstream, it is more difficult for the downstream grey cloth to receive orders. The cotton price did not follow the rise, and the market waiting mood was strong. Polyester staple fiber continues to fall with crude oil prices.

5、 Looking forward to the future, the risk aversion sentiment in the global financial market is heating up suddenly, and we should guard against the weakening of international cotton price. The rapid spread of delta mutation virus has aroused concerns about weakening global demand. The US Federal Reserve has discussed reducing the scale of bond purchase this year. Risk aversion in the capital market has risen, and the margin of asset price rise has weakened. In the international cotton market, up to now, the budding rate of new cotton in the United States has reached 93%, and the proportion of good seedlings has continued to increase; In India, 92% of the new cotton planting has been completed; The cotton harvest in Brazil has exceeded 60%. The main variable at present is the weather conditions.

In recent years, the continuous shortage of shipping containers, especially the accumulation of goods in some ports in Europe and the United States, has passively delayed the delivery and payment collection period of textile services, and the contract risk has increased accordingly. The consumption of terminal textile clothing decreased. In July, the retail sales of clothing and accessories stores in the United States decreased by 2.59% month on month. In August, the consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan in the United States dropped sharply, from 81.2 to 70.2, a new low since 2011.

To sum up, with the continuous fermentation of delta virus, the short-term demand is expected to weaken, and the risk aversion sentiment in the international financial market will increase, so as to guard against the weakening of international cotton price margin. Domestic new cotton picking is approaching, the market wait and see mood warming up.

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the growth rate of some major indicators fell in July. The added value of the national textile industry above designated size decreased by 1% year-on-year, and the textile and clothing industry increased by 8.1% year-on-year. The recent meeting of the central financial and Economic Commission pointed out that we should do a good job in preventing and resolving major financial risks.

In terms of domestic cotton market, Xinjiang's new cotton is growing normally and is about to enter the boll opening period. Cotton enterprises' maintenance is gradually completed to welcome the purchase of new cotton. With the callback of cotton price after the record high, Zheng cotton warehouse receipts accelerated to decline. As of August 20, the number of registered warehouse receipts of Zheng cotton was 419000 tons, down 35000 tons compared with last week. According to the latest data of China Cotton Association,

At the end of July, China's total cotton turnover inventory was about 1.731 million tons, down 468000 tons on a month on month basis, lower than 260700 tons in the same period last year. Some enterprises are still in the early stage of production orders, and some textile and clothing enterprises in Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces and other light textile markets have reported that Christmas and Easter orders in developed countries such as Europe and the United States have been issued ahead of schedule in order to ensure timely shipment and delivery. If the epidemic continues, the textile and clothing orders in the fourth quarter may be lower than expected. Next week, the picking time of new cotton is approaching, and the market is waiting for the scale to rise.