Profiteering "Black Gold" And Damaged Middle And Lower Reaches: The Joys And Sorrows Of Photovoltaic Industry Chain Are Not Interlinked

In the domestic photovoltaic industry, the transfer of industrial chain profits to the downstream is a "chewing" argument for nearly ten years.

This is not a mistake. On the one hand, technological iteration and industrial chain price changes lead to the continuous transfer of profits in all aspects of photovoltaic; On the other hand, cost reduction is the eternal theme of the industry. Under the general trend of industrial chain price decline, profits will also be redistributed.

However, the process has not been smooth. Since the second half of last year, the rising price tide of domestic photovoltaic industry chain has shelved the downward movement of profits. In the fierce game between the upstream and downstream, the semi annual report of photovoltaic industry chain presents a trend of polarization. For those who are happy, upstream enterprises continue to enjoy excess profits and achieve a record high performance; For those who are worried, their profitability is at the bottom or even at a loss.

"When the price of silicon material returns to the state it was ten years ago, the upstream link will gather profits again, and the trend of industrial profits from manufacturing to application will be suspended." A photovoltaic enterprise personage told the 21st century economic reporter that fortunately, this is only a short-term difficult state, and the excess profits of some links will eventually slowly return to the average rate of return.

Upstream: black gold of huge profits

Looking at the financial reports of listed photovoltaic enterprises that have released interim performance, it is not difficult to find that almost all the enterprises with the highest net profit have the "material" attribute.

Longji shares (601012. SH) is still the king of profits, but in the first half of this year, most of the company's profits were contributed by silicon chips; Tongwei shares (600438. SH) silicon gross profit rate set a record high; Zhonghuan (002129. SZ) officially opened the era of Li Dongsheng, and the sales of large-size silicon wafers were booming.

The net profit also increased significantly by fulette (601865. SH), foster (603806. SH), Jinlang Technology (300763. SZ) and other auxiliary materials enterprises. The average price of photovoltaic glass in the first half of the year was still higher than that in the same period of last year, and the quantity and price of EVA film increased simultaneously, and inverter manufacturers even sent information of price rise.

On the whole, in the first half of this year, considerable profits were accumulated in the upstream of the whole photovoltaic industry chain.

Tongwei shares, which earned the net profit of the whole year in 2019 for half a year, showed the "madness" of silicon material business in the interim report recently released. According to the financial report, the company realized 26.562 billion yuan of operating revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 41.75%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 2.966 billion yuan, up 193.50% year on year. Considering the factors of the decline in gross profit margin of battery chip business, the main contributor of Tongwei's profit in the first half of this year is silicon.

In the financial report, Tongwei shares did not disclose the specific revenue figures of polysilicon material business. But some information is hard to hide "windfall profits": in the first half of this year, the company's polysilicon production capacity was full production and sales, the capacity utilization rate was 126.50%, and the output was 50600 tons. According to the 21st century economic report, in the second quarter, Tongwei's polysilicon sales volume was about 26000 tons, and the average price was about 160000 yuan / ton. The average production cost of Tongwei's polysilicon material in the first half of the year was 36500 yuan / ton, and the rising price of polysilicon material pushed up its gross profit rate to 69.39%.

Daquan energy (688303. SH) financial report may be more intuitive.

As a leading enterprise with polysilicon sales as its main business, the company achieved 4.512 billion yuan of operating revenue in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year increase of 111.99%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 2.161 billion yuan, up 587.96% year on year. It is worth mentioning that the company's overall gross margin during the reporting period was also as high as 60.92%, an increase of 14 percentage points over the end of last year.

Restless industrial chain profit

From the current supply and demand point of view, "black gold" high gross profit rate in the second half of this year is still possible to maintain.

According to the latest price data released on August 25 by the silicon industry branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as the silicon industry branch), the average transaction price of single crystal re feeding reached 209100 yuan / T, with a week on week increase of 1.60%; The average transaction price of single crystal densified material reached 206800 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 1.62%. The 21st century economic reporter noticed that when the price of silicon material rose three times in a row, its month on month increase was also expanding.

"Silicon construction cycle is long, and supply and demand are prone to mismatch." A senior new energy analyst told the 21st century economic report that silicon material is an area with high investment barriers in the photovoltaic industry chain, with high technical threshold, large investment amount and long production cycle.

In fact, it is difficult to improve the mismatch between supply and demand of silicon materials this year. According to the statistical data of Polaris solar photovoltaic network, in eight months, the signing amount of long-term silicon sheet is about 1458000 tons, which is 70.71% higher than that of 855300 tons in 2020, of which 131055 tons are signed by domestic silicon material factories.

However, the industry is more worried that the rising price of silicon material causes the restlessness of the industrial chain.

Recently, the quotation of silicon chip and battery chip has entered the uplink channel again. As early as in the first half of this year, silicon chip enterprises have made huge profits.

During the reporting period, China Central realized 17.644 billion yuan of operating revenue, up 104.12% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies reached 1.480 billion yuan, up 174.92% year on year. Behind the double growth of net profit, silicon plays an important role“ In the first half of the year, China Central's G12 large silicon chip has strong profitability, and its revenue share has increased. " According to the analysis of the 21st century economic reporter by the above analysts, the price of silicon wafers increased in the first half of the year, coupled with the company's significant cost reduction and efficiency increase, the gross profit rate of products improved.

Indeed, there are signs of high profits in the silicon wafer sector, which can also be found in the financial reports of Longji.

After closing on August 30, the company announced its first half results: operating revenue of 35.098 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 74.26%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 4.993 billion yuan, up 21.30% year on year.

According to the operating data of the main holding companies released by the company, the reporter of 21st century economic report estimates that four companies, including Yinchuan Longji, Baoshan Longji, Chuxiong Longji and Yinchuan photovoltaic, which mainly produce and sell silicon rods and silicon wafers, have realized a total net profit of 3.414 billion yuan.

Middle and lower reaches: passive "alliance"

The high net profit of upstream is really eye-catching. However, this inevitably makes some enterprises in other links face the risk of loss of profits or even "blood loss".

At the "Symposium on hot and difficult issues of photovoltaic industry" organized by the industry association in June, the "complaint" of Aishu (600732. SH) on the upstream price rise is still fresh in people's memory. In the first half of the year, the company, which adhered to the specialized production line, was plagued by rising prices of raw materials and finally handed in a half year loss report.

According to the financial report, during the reporting period, the operating revenue of aixu was about 6.868 billion yuan, an increase of 85.88% over the same period of last year; The net profit loss attributable to shareholders of listed companies was about 23.76 million yuan, compared with 137 million yuan in the same period last year.

At the end of the battery, a competitor of aixu is Tongwei. In fact, even under the layout of the whole industrial chain, the gross profit margin of its battery chip business has not been immune to the price increase of silicon materials and silicon wafers. Although during the reporting period, the company's full production and sales, battery and module sales volume was 14.93gw, a year-on-year increase of 92.68%, but the gross profit rate of single-crystal battery dropped to 11.65%, nearly 3% lower than that at the end of 2020.

Of course, the biggest headache is the component side. In the first half of this year, under the background of the imbalance of supply and demand pattern in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain and the soaring prices of upstream raw materials, the profitability of component enterprises is greatly challenged.

In the first half of this year, both Jingao Technology (002459. SZ) and Trina Solar (688699. SH) ushered in the highlight moment after privatization back to a, with market value exceeding 100 billion. As of August 30, the total market value of the two companies was 120.5 billion yuan and 127.4 billion yuan respectively.

In the first half of this year, the revenue of Jingao technology, which mainly deals in solar modules, increased by 48.77% year-on-year, but its net profit increased only slightly by 1.78% to 713 million yuan. If the net profit after deducting non-profit is taken as a reference, the profitability of main business of Jingao technology in the reporting period is actually declining.

Dongfang Risheng (300118. SZ), another leading component enterprise in China, suffered the first medium-term loss in five years.

"Mainly due to the increase in shipping volume, the expansion of sales scale, and the rise in the price of raw materials." Jingao technology said in explaining the weak growth of net profit in the first half of the year.

21st century economic reporter noted that even if the first half of the year's performance exceeded expectations, Trina Solar also admitted in its half year report that the photovoltaic industry is facing multiple business challenges, such as the sharp rise in silicon material prices, the rise in the price of bulk materials, and the rise in logistics freight.

For component enterprises, when the upstream raw material prices rise, they can also continue to transmit the cost pressure by raising prices. But the road is not easy to pass“ After the price hikes from last year to this year, the terminal has limited bearing capacity, so it may be difficult to adjust the order price so as to stabilize the water level of more than 1.8 yuan per watt for one-sided components. " Industry organization pvinfolink analysis that.

It is undeniable that after the fierce competition in the past decade, the domestic component sector has formed a pattern of survival of the fittest and the winner is the king, and the profitability of enterprises has improved“ Before this round of price rise, the attention of component enterprises has turned more to sales, channels and brands. " The analysts told the 21st century business reporter, but in the current price rise, the focus of cost has been raised to priority again.

In fact, since last year, the news of "alliance" of component enterprises has appeared frequently.

In November 2020, Trina Solar and Tongwei Co., Ltd. signed a 15 billion yuan project cooperation. The two sides stand together in the aspects of silicon materials, silicon rods, batteries and chips.

Jingao technology and Jingke energy will also extend their tentacles to the upstream. On June 18, the two companies announced that they had signed an agreement on capital increase and share expansion with new energy, to increase the capital and share of Inner Mongolia Xinte silicon materials Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of new energy, through equity investment to provide the last insurance for the supply of polysilicon materials in the future.

Behind this, the trend of vertical integration of component enterprises is irresistible.

But if the current round of industrial chain did not set off a wave of price rise, such a trend may not appear so early.

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