International Monetary Fund Forecasts Weak Global Demand For Textiles And Clothing

In October, the International Monetary Fund predicted that the global economic growth rate would remain at 3.2% in 2022, but the growth rate in 2023 might drop to 2.7%, or even lower. The 2022 trade and development report released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and development points out that the rapid interest rate increase and fiscal tightening in developed economies, coupled with the crisis caused by the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, has turned the global economic slowdown into a downward trend. It is predicted that the global economic growth rate will further slow down to 2.2% in 2023.

The economy has entered a downward cycle. The demand for textiles and clothing of residents is weakening. The demand for textiles and clothing in Europe and the United States has shown a weak state. The situation of textile start-up and export in Southeast Asia is getting worse. There is still room for the global cotton consumption to be adjusted.

1. Demand for textile and clothing in Europe and the United States is weak

U.S. textile and clothing imports fell for four consecutive months, and imports from China fell even more. In September 2022, the import volume of textiles and clothing of the United States was 8.82 billion square meters, up 6.2% year-on-year and 3.5% lower than the same period of last year, which was the fourth consecutive month of decline. Among them, clothing import volume was 2.68 billion square meters, down 7% year-on-year and 12.2% month on month. In September, the total amount of textile and clothing imported from China was 2.98 billion square meters, down 23% year-on-year, and the amount was 3.1 billion US dollars, down 12% year-on-year; Among them, the total import volume of clothing in China was 930 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 28.4%, and the amount of clothing imports was 2.17 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%.

The decline in imports was mainly due to the decline in purchasing power of domestic textiles and clothing, which led to the accumulation of inventory. Data shows that the clothing and fabric inventory of American wholesalers has continued to grow since this year.

Under the dual pressure of energy crisis and high inflation, the consumption of textile and clothing in EU is very weak. In August, the retail sales of textile, clothing and leather products in France were 4.05 billion euro (about 4.07 billion US dollars), a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% and a month on month increase of 2.4%; Germany's clothing retail sales in August decreased by 7.9% year-on-year and 6% month on month; Clothing retail sales in the Netherlands fell 6.4% in August from a year earlier, compared with an increase of 11.6% in July.

In addition, the EU will tighten its tax policy in the future. From March 1, 2024, all low value goods imported from countries outside the EU will pay value-added tax, and the tariff on imported textiles will be increased from 17% to 30%.

2. The market pays attention to the mid-term elections in the United States

Since the beginning of this year, the textile production rate of the main Southeast Asian countries has declined. By the end of October, the start-up rate of Vietnam's textile enterprises had dropped to less than 40%, that of Pakistan's also dropped to less than 50%, and that of India's textile industry had improved slightly in the near future, but it was still at a low level for two years. The main reason for the decline of textile orders in large countries is the decline of textile demand in Europe and the United States.

In Bangladesh, 22 garment factories have closed in the past month due to energy shortage, and another 27 are about to close. In addition, export orders have shrunk, and it is estimated that export demand will fall by 30% from March to may 2022. Pakistan, at present, the country's yarn demand has not improved, lack of demand in the main export markets.

At present, the country's textile production capacity has also been reduced, still processing inventory. Vietnam's textile exports have declined year-on-year since September. In addition, the U.S. Department of labor has included some Indian yarn, Bangladeshi clothing and Pakistani textiles, clothing and clothing on the list of foreign products produced by child labor or forced labor in violation of international standards. The export requires relevant certificates, which hinders the export of Southeast Asia.

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Therefore, in the context of the global economic downturn, the world textile and clothing consumption is facing challenges. The decline in demand for textiles and clothing in Europe and the United States and the decrease in clothing imports have led to a decline in Southeast Asia and a decrease in demand for cotton. There is still room for adjustment of global cotton demand in the future, which is a medium and long-term negative impact on cotton prices.