Export Under Pressure In Peak Season: China Launches "Order Defense War"

The fourth quarter is usually the traditional peak season for China's foreign trade. However, affected by the epidemic situation and the downturn of the world economy, China's foreign trade, especially exports, seems to be "not in peak season". In order to boost exports, a "order defense war" has begun.

According to official data, China's total import and export value in October increased 6.9% year on year in RMB, and the growth rate fell for three consecutive months. In dollar terms, China's total import and export value in October fell 0.4% year on year, far lower than the 3.4% growth rate in September. Among them, exports fell 0.3% year on year, while the growth rate in September was 5.7%.

In response, Shu Jueting, spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce of China, said frankly that the current insufficient external demand has become a "prominent challenge". The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade also said that the problem of insufficient orders of enterprises was particularly prominent, and the import and export of foreign trade was under further pressure in the fourth quarter.

The order shortage is caused by multiple factors. Mao Zhenhua, co director of the Economic Research Institute of Renmin University of China, said that the current global economy is in a downturn, the inflation level of developed economies such as the United States and Europe is still high, the purchasing power of residents is restrained, and the production capacity and supply capacity of other economies are gradually recovering, so overseas demand for Chinese goods is not as strong as before.

In addition, affected by the epidemic, it is difficult for Chinese foreign trade enterprises to attend various exhibitions abroad in time, which also limits enterprises to develop new customers and take new orders to some extent.

As Wei Jianguo, the former vice minister of the Ministry of Commerce of China, said in an interview with the reporter of China News Service, offline display of goods, communication and negotiation are of great significance for foreign trade enterprises to guarantee and compete for orders. When international competition is fierce, enterprises must really "go out" to seize market opportunities.

In response to these problems, China has been "adapting the right medicine".

A series of measures to tap the trade potential between China and ASEAN are being launched in succession. Recently, the leaders of China and ASEAN countries have jointly announced the launch of negotiations on the China ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0. In addition, China also said that it would continue to help ASEAN members in need to improve the implementation capacity of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP).

At present, ASEAN is China's largest trading partner. According to official data, the total trade value between China and ASEAN in the first 10 months of this year increased by 15.8% year on year, 6.3 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate of China's foreign trade in the same period, of which the growth rate of China's exports to ASEAN was as high as 22.7%.

Gao Lingyun, a researcher of the Institute of World Economy and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with reporters from China News Service that in the context of rising geopolitical tensions, weak demand in the European and American markets is likely to continue next year. Make full use of RCEP, further release the cooperation potential with ASEAN, the largest trading partner, and help to hedge the adverse impact of weak European and American markets on China's foreign trade.

Cross border e-commerce gets more policy support. Last month, China's cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones were expanded again, with a total of more than 100. The number of countries that have signed memorandums of understanding on e-commerce cooperation with China has recently increased to 27.

During the epidemic, cross-border e-commerce played an important role in stabilizing China's foreign trade. According to official data, the import and export scale of China's cross-border e-commerce in 2021 will be about 1.92 trillion yuan, up 18.6% year on year. Analysts believe that increasing support for cross-border e-commerce can provide a new engine for China's foreign trade.

The road for enterprises to participate in overseas exhibitions is also accelerating. At present, CCPIT has completed the approval of the first batch of 15 pilot projects for overseas economic and trade exhibitions from November 2022 to February 2023, which are distributed in 8 countries, including Germany and the United States, and involve textile, auto parts, sports goods, electronics, consumer goods and other fields. Most of these fields involve China's advantageous export products, which will enable relevant enterprises to gain tangible benefits in export.

Wei Jianguo said that with the gradual release of the effect of the policy of stabilizing growth, China's foreign trade growth is expected to achieve a small increase in the fourth quarter of this year.