Market Analysis: Data Analysis The Trend Of The Global Cotton Market In September

In September 2024, the cotton price at home and abroad rebounded quickly after a slight decline, and turned into a shock consolidation trend after the National Day holiday. According to the data released by the US Department of Agriculture in October 2024, the global cotton production and consumption in 2024/25 will increase steadily. In September, the national yarn output continued to rise slightly year on year. Since the middle of October, the speculation of cotton yarn traders and light textile companies in coastal areas has been cooling down, the cycle of cotton yarn purchasing and picking up has been prolonged, the rate of accumulated inventory of enterprises' finished products has increased, and the pressure on cotton mills has increased due to the recent increase in cotton purchasing costs.

1、 Supply and demand

（1） Global cotton production increased steadily and consumption remained stable

According to the data released by the US Department of Agriculture in October 2024, the global cotton initial inventory in 2024/25 will be 16.373 million tons, a month on month decrease of 90000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 166000 tons; The output was 25.395 million tons, an increase of 48000 tons month on month and 648000 tons year on year; The consumption was 25.199 million tons, decreasing by 2000 tons month on month and increasing by 411 thousand tons year on year; The ending inventory was 16.618 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 36000 tons and 245000 tons; The inventory consumption ratio at the end of the period was 65.95%, down 0.14 percentage points month on month and 0.1 percentage points year on year.

（2） Domestic new flower sales increased year on year, yarn output rebounded year on year

According to the estimated domestic cotton output of 6.384 million tons (predicted by the national cotton market monitoring system in September 2024), as of October 17, the country had accumulated 3.452 million tons of seed cotton to lint cotton, an increase of 503000 tons year on year; Accumulated sales of seed cotton converted into lint 2.42 million tons, an increase of 1.15 million tons year on year; The accumulated processing lint was 792000 tons, an increase of 292000 tons year on year; The cumulative sales of lint were 82000 tons, an increase of 75000 tons on a year-on-year basis.

In September 2024, China's spinning output will be 1.981 million tons, an increase of 45000 tons year-on-year, or 2.3%; In September 2024, China's cumulative spinning output will be 1.981 million tons, an increase of 2000 tons or 0.1% year on year.

2、 Import and export trade

（1） China

1. China's cotton import

In September 2024, China imported 117300 tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of 118000 tons, or 50.2% (Figure 1).

In September 2024, the main source countries of China's cotton imports are: Australia (62000 tons, accounting for 52.6%), the United States (25000 tons, accounting for 21.3%), Brazil (16000 tons, accounting for 13.7%), Tajikistan (2000 tons, accounting for 1.7%), Benin (2000 tons, accounting for 1.7%), Argentina (2000 tons, accounting for 1.5%), Sudan (2000 tons, accounting for 1.4%), Cameroon (1000 tons, accounting for 1.2%).

Among them, the countries or regions whose import proportion increased year on year are: Australia (+32.1%), Tajikistan (+1.7%), Benin (+1.5%), Argentina (+1%), Cameroon (+1%); The countries or regions whose import proportion decreased year on year are the United States (- 24.2%), Brazil (- 7.9%) and Sudan (- 0.5%).

2. China's cotton yarn import

In September 2024, China's cotton yarn imports will be 111000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 74000 tons, or 40%.

In September 2024, China's cotton yarn imports will mainly come from Vietnam (63000 tons, accounting for 56.9%), Pakistan (14000 tons, accounting for 12.3%), Malaysia (8000 tons, accounting for 6.8%), Uzbekistan (7000 tons, accounting for 6.1%), Bangladesh (6000 tons, accounting for 5.1%), and India (5000 tons, accounting for 4.9%).

Among them, the countries or regions whose import proportion increased year on year are Vietnam (+15.4%), Malaysia (+3.7%) and Bangladesh (+2.5%); The countries or regions whose import proportion decreased year on year are India (- 17.5%), Pakistan (- 5%) and Uzbekistan (- 0.7%).

3. China's clothing export

In September 2024, China's clothing exports will reach US $13.01 billion, a year-on-year decrease of US $0.99 billion, or 7.1%.

In September 2024, the main destinations of China's clothing exports are: the United States (US $3.12 billion, accounting for 24%), the European Union (US $1.92 billion, accounting for 14.8%), Japan (US $1.21 billion, accounting for 9.3%), Kyrgyzstan (US $680 million, accounting for 5.2%), South Korea (US $610 million, accounting for 4.7%), the United Kingdom (US $520 million, accounting for 4%), Kazakhstan (US $470 million, accounting for 3.6%), Australia (US $380 million, accounting for 2.9%) 。

Among them, the countries or regions whose export proportion increased year on year are: the United States (+3.2%), the European Union (+0.8%), Kyrgyzstan (+0.6%), the United Kingdom (+0.5%), and South Korea (+0.1%); The countries or regions whose export proportion decreased year on year are Japan (- 1.6%), Kazakhstan (- 0.7%) and Australia (- 0.3%).

（2） United States

1. American cotton export

In August 2024, the United States exported 149200 tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of 76000 tons, or 33.6%. From September 2023 to August 2024, the US cotton export will be 2.5206 million tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 272000 tons, or 9.7%.

From September 2023 to August 2024, the main destinations of American cotton exports are: China (939000 tons, accounting for 37.2%), Pakistan (302000 tons, accounting for 12%), Vietnam (286000 tons, accounting for 11.3%), Turkey (169000 tons, accounting for 6.7%), Bangladesh (148000 tons, accounting for 5.9%), Mexico (115000 tons, accounting for 4.6%), Hong Kong, China (82000 tons, accounting for 3.2%), Indonesia (72000 tons, accounting for 2.9%) 。

Among them, the countries or regions whose export proportion increased year on year are: China (+9.8%), Hong Kong (+1.2%), Bangladesh (+0.8%), Mexico (+0%); Countries or regions with year-on-year decrease in export proportion are Turkey (- 5.3%), Pakistan (- 3.2%), Vietnam (- 0.1%) and Indonesia (- 0.1%).

2. American clothing imports

In August 2024, US clothing imports reached US $7.79 billion, a year-on-year decrease of US $20 million or 0.3%. From September 2023 to August 2024, clothing imports from the United States reached US $76.68 billion, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of US $7.86 billion, or 9.3%.

From September 2023 to August 2024, the main sources of clothing imports from the United States are: China (US $16.73 billion, accounting for 21.8%), Vietnam (US $13.89 billion, accounting for 18.1%), Bangladesh (US $6.55 billion, accounting for 8.5%), India (US $4.45 billion, accounting for 5.8%), Indonesia (US $4.01 billion, accounting for 5.2%), Cambodia (US $3.47 billion, accounting for 4.5%), Mexico (US $2.74 billion, accounting for 3.6%), Honduras (2.45 billion US dollars, accounting for 3.2%).

Among them, the countries or regions whose import proportion increased year on year are: China (+1%), Vietnam (+0.5%), Cambodia (+0.3%), India (+0.1%); The countries or regions whose import proportion decreased year on year are Bangladesh (- 0.8%), Indonesia (- 0.2%) and Honduras (- 0.1%).

（3） Japanese clothing imports

In August 2024, Japan's clothing imports will reach US $2.25 billion, a year-on-year decrease of US $230 million, or 9.3%. From September 2023 to August 2024, Japan's clothing imports reached US $22.95 billion, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of US $1.59 billion, or 6.5%.

From September 2023 to August 2024, the main destinations of Japan's clothing imports are: China (US $11.42 billion, accounting for 49.8%), Vietnam (US $4.17 billion, accounting for 18.2%), Bangladesh (US $1.21 billion, accounting for 5.3%), Cambodia (US $1.19 billion, accounting for 5.2%), Myanmar (US $1.12 billion, accounting for 4.9%), Italy (US $970 million, accounting for 4.2%), Indonesia (US $740 million, accounting for 3.2%), Thailand (US $350 million, 1.5%).

Among them, the countries or regions whose import proportion increased year on year are Vietnam (+1.3%), Italy (+0.7%), Cambodia (+0.4%) and Bangladesh (+0%); The countries or regions whose import proportion decreased year on year are: China (- 2.6%), Indonesia (- 0.2%), Myanmar (- 0.1%).

（4） EU clothing import

In August 2024, EU clothing imports reached US $9.31 billion, an increase of US $560 million or 6.4% year on year. From September 2023 to August 2024, EU clothing imports reached US $88.217 billion, a year-on-year decrease of US $9.73 billion, or 9.9%.

From September 2023 to August 2024, the main sources of EU clothing imports are: China (US $24.07 billion, accounting for 27.3%), Bangladesh (US $18.38 billion, accounting for 20.8%), Turkey (US $10.24 billion, accounting for 11.6%), India (US $4.34 billion, accounting for 4.9%), Vietnam (US $4.08 billion, accounting for 4.6%), Cambodia (US $3.78 billion, accounting for 4.3%), Pakistan (US $3.55 billion, accounting for 4%), Morocco (2.88 billion US dollars, accounting for 3.3%).

Among them, the countries or regions whose import proportion increased year on year are Cambodia (+0.5%), Morocco (+0.4%), Pakistan (+0.3%), Turkey (+0.1%) and India (+0.1%); The countries or regions whose import proportion decreased year on year are China (- 1%) and Bangladesh (- 0.6%).

（5） India

1. Indian cotton import

In July 2024, India imported 35600 tons of cotton, which was basically the same year on year. From September 2023 to July 2024, India imported 164000 tons of cotton, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 131000 tons, or 44.4%.

From September 2023 to July 2024, the main source countries of Indian cotton imports are: the United States (34000 tons, accounting for 21%), Egypt (32000 tons, accounting for 19.7%), Australia (31000 tons, accounting for 18.9%), Tanzania (15000 tons, accounting for 9.2%), Brazil (7000 tons, accounting for 4.5%), Singapore (7000 tons, accounting for 4.5%), and Cote d'Ivoire (6000 tons, accounting for 3.6%).

Among them, the countries or regions whose import proportion increased year on year are Egypt (+8.4%), Tanzania (+6.2%), C ? te d'Ivoire (+1.3%) and Singapore (+0.9%); The countries or regions whose import proportion decreased year on year are the United States (- 11.6%), Australia (- 10%) and Brazil (- 0.2%).

2. Indian cotton export

In July 2024, India exported 17400 tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of 1000 tons or 4.4%. From September 2023 to July 2024, India's cotton export will be 484200 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 249000 tons, or 106%.

From September 2023 to July 2024, the main export destinations of Indian cotton are Bangladesh (325000 tons, accounting for 67.2%), China (81000 tons, accounting for 16.8%), Vietnam (49000 tons, accounting for 10.1%), the United Arab Emirates (12000 tons, accounting for 2.5%), Indonesia (12000 tons, accounting for 2.4%), and Thailand (1000 tons, accounting for 0.3%).

Among them, the countries or regions whose export proportion increased year on year are: China (+6.5%), Thailand (+0.1%); Countries or regions with year-on-year decrease in export proportion are: United Arab Emirates (- 1.9%), Bangladesh (- 1.8%), Indonesia (- 0.8%), Vietnam (- 0.3%).

3. Indian cotton yarn export

In July 2024, India exported 94700 tons of cotton yarn, a year-on-year decrease of 16000 tons, or 14.1%. From September 2023 to July 2024, India's cotton yarn export will be 1.0958 million tons, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 310000 tons and a cumulative year-on-year growth of 39.4%.

From September 2023 to July 2024, the main export destinations of Indian cotton yarn are: Bangladesh (477000 tons, accounting for 43.5%), China (138000 tons, accounting for 12.6%), Vietnam (58000 tons, accounting for 5.3%), Egypt (55000 tons, accounting for 5%), Peru (44000 tons, accounting for 4%), Portugal (38000 tons, accounting for 3.5%).

Among them, the countries or regions whose export proportion increased year on year are Bangladesh (+15.8%) and Vietnam (+1.8%); The countries or regions whose export proportion decreased year on year are: China (- 8%), Egypt (- 1.3%), Portugal (- 1.2%), Peru (- 0.1%).

（6） Australian cotton exports

In August 2024, Australia exported 190000 tons of cotton, an increase of 11000 tons or 6.3% year on year. From September 2023 to August 2024, Australia's cotton export will be 1.2612 million tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 33000 tons, or 2.6%.

From September 2023 to August 2024, the main export destinations of Australian cotton are Vietnam (391000 tons, accounting for 31%), China (358000 tons, accounting for 28.4%), Indonesia (132000 tons, accounting for 10.4%), Bangladesh (125000 tons, accounting for 9.9%), India (78000 tons, accounting for 6.2%), and Malaysia (60000 tons, accounting for 4.7%).

Among them, the countries or regions whose export proportion increased year on year are: China (+16.3%), Bangladesh (+2.9%), India (+0.8%); Countries or regions with year-on-year decrease in export proportion are Vietnam (- 8.7%), Malaysia (- 1.8%) and Indonesia (- 0.3%).

（7） Brazilian cotton exports

In September 2024, Brazil exported 169500 tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of 17000 tons, or 9.1%.

In September 2024, the main export destinations of Brazilian cotton are: China (47000 tons, accounting for 27.8%), Vietnam (33000 tons, accounting for 19.6%), Pakistan (19000 tons, accounting for 11.3%), Bangladesh (17000 tons, accounting for 10.3%), (0 million tons, accounting for 0%), India (13000 tons, accounting for 7.6%), Indonesia (11000 tons, accounting for 6.4%), Egypt (4000 tons, accounting for 2.2%).

Among them, the countries or regions whose export proportion increased year on year are Vietnam (+9.7%), Pakistan (+8.5%), India (+7.6%), Bangladesh (+2.4%), Egypt (+2%) and Indonesia (+0.7%); The countries or regions whose export proportion decreased year on year are: China (- 33.5%).

3、 Macroeconomy

（1） Global macro overview

In September 2024, the global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) will decline on a month on month basis, and the trend of manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) of major economic systems will diverge. Among them, China's official PMI will rise on a month on month basis, the U.S. PMI will remain flat on a month on month basis, and Japan and the euro area will decline on a month on month basis.

In September 2024, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index released by the National Bureau of Statistics was 49.8, up 0.7 percentage points month on month; Caixin China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index released by Caixin on behalf of small and medium-sized enterprises was 49.3, down 1.1 percentage points month on month.

In September 2024, the increase of domestic clothing ex factory prices will narrow, and the decline of downstream consumer prices will decrease. The clothing producer price index (PPI) released by the National Bureau of Statistics was - 0.3% year on year, with a decrease of 0.1 percentage point compared with the previous month. The clothing consumer price index (CPI) in the same period was+1.3% year on year, with a decrease of 0.1 percentage point compared with the previous month.

（2） Domestic financial market

In September 2024, except for the 30 day call rate, all other term call rates in the Shanghai interbank market will decline consistently. On September 30, the three-month interbank offered rate in Shanghai was 1.84%, down 1.0 basis points month on month

In September 2024, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar rose significantly. On September 30, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.0074, a month on month appreciation of 1142 basis points.

（3） Global commodity price trend

In September 2024, global commodity prices rebounded from shocks. As of September 30, the CRB index, which represents the trend of global commodity prices, closed at 284.94, up 2.64% month on month.

4、 Price trend

（1） The price of cotton at home and abroad rebounded rapidly and then turned to shock

As of September 30, the national cotton price B index was 15359 yuan/ton, up 406 yuan/ton from the previous month, the main contract of Zheng cotton futures was 14540 yuan/ton, up 735 yuan/ton from the previous month, the international cotton M index (converted into 1% tariff RMB import cost) was 14077 yuan/ton, up 520 yuan/ton from the previous month, and the settlement price of ICE cotton futures main contract was 73.61 cents/pound, up 3.62 cents/pound from the previous month; The difference between internal and external cotton prices is 1282 yuan/ton, which is 114 yuan/ton smaller than that of the previous month.

（2） Cotton yarn prices rebounded

As of September 30, China's 32 ordinary combed pure cotton yarns were 21725 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan/ton from the previous month; India's 32 count ordinary combed pure cotton yarn was 22767 yuan/ton, up 163 yuan/ton from the previous month; Vietnam's 32 ordinary combed pure cotton yarns cost 21997 yuan/ton, up 157 yuan/ton from the previous month; Indonesia 32 ordinary combed pure cotton yarn 21997 yuan/ton, up 157 yuan/ton from the previous month; Pakistan 21 ordinary combed pure cotton yarn was 20155 yuan/ton, the same as last month.

（3） Narrow the price difference between yarn and cotton, expand the price difference between polyester and cotton

As of September 30, the price difference of domestic yarn and cotton was 6366 yuan/ton, down 186 yuan/ton month on month; The price difference between polyester and cotton is 8094 yuan/ton, and the month on month increase is 546 yuan/ton.

This report mainly reflects the relevant information of the cotton industry in the month before the release. The report data covers cotton production and demand, import and export, macro-economy, cotton textile prices, etc. Since the global cotton supply and demand forecast and the import and export data of customs of various countries are generally released in the middle of each month, the release date of this report is the middle of each month. If the domestic and foreign market conditions change significantly in the week before the release, Then supplement the recent trend description as appropriate.