Market Trends: Imported Cotton Once Again Fell Below 70 Cents/Pound

According to the feedback of cotton trade enterprises in Qingdao, Zhangjiagang and other places, as the main force of ICE cotton in December contracts fell below 70 cents/pound again in recent trading days, Zheng Mian's main force of CF2501 contracts remained at 14000-14300 yuan/ton for consolidation, in addition, Xinjiang ginning plants and traders still had a high basis for lint quotation, and the cost of directly importing foreign cotton under 1% tariff (or sliding tariff) was higher than that of Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu The quotation order of Xinjiang cotton in Zhejiang and other mainland regions continued to expand compared with the mid to late October (the RMB quotation basis of a few cotton enterprises slightly increased), and the cost performance advantage of bonded American cotton, Brazilian cotton, and lint from other regions continued to increase.

From the survey, it can be seen that the 200000 ton sliding tariff cotton import quota in 2024 has been successively issued to textile mills in the middle and late September, the main contract of ICE cotton has dropped below 72 cents/pound and 70 cents/pound, and the worries about the high horse value, low strength and high short pile rate of Brazilian new cotton in 2023/24 have increased, Therefore, in the past week or more, domestic export-oriented enterprises above designated size (with relatively stable export traceability orders and good profits) have increased their efforts to inquire about and purchase high-quality bonded spot goods from China's main ports. In particular, the shipment of American cotton with lengths of M and above, 1-1/8 and above in 2023/24 is relatively dynamic. By the end of October, the bonded cotton inventory at the port had significantly decreased from the first half of October. The bonded cotton inventory at Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone had decreased by more than 20%, and that at Qingdao Port was also expected to decrease by 10-15%.

From October 31 to November 1, Qingdao Port bonded Brazilian cotton M 1-5/32 (Qiangli 28/29/30GPT) net weight quotation is concentrated at 77.78-78.78 cents/pound (basis difference is 8-9 cents/pound, slightly lower than the first half of October, benchmarking ICE cotton 2412), and the import cost under 1% tariff is about 13580-13750 yuan/ton (import cost under sliding tariff is about 14335-14450 yuan/ton); At present, the domestic warehouse 3129B (breaking specific strength 28-29CN/TEX) Xinjiang machine picked cotton's common weight quotation is concentrated at 15000-15350 yuan/ton (including warehouse receipts, the price of impurities in some batches of machine picked cotton from Hami, East Xinjiang, and the 12th/13th Agricultural Division is lower). Considering the difference in net weight and common weight settlement, the difference between the cost of imported bonded Brazilian cotton with 1% tariff at the end of October and the quotation of Xinjiang machine picked cotton is about 1500-2000 yuan/ton, compared with that in September In October, there was still a trend of amplification.