Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference: Macro Insight, Analysis Of Industry Development Trend

　　 On February 28, Zhangjiagang Cotton Industry Development Conference, sponsored by Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone Textile Raw Materials Market, Zhangjiagang Cotton Chamber of Commerce, and Yimiangou, and co organized by Jumian, Soochow Futures, and Jiangsu Jinsheng International Freight Forwarding Co., Ltd., was held in Zhangjiagang. More than 500 people from futures companies, cotton trading companies, trading markets and textile enterprises all over the country gathered together to analyze the macroeconomic situation at home and abroad, the development trend of the cotton industry, explore the development trend of the cotton market, and discuss "how to look, how to do", so as to escort the stable development of the industry.

　　 Macro insight and analysis of industry development trend

　　 In 2024, Xinjiang's cotton target price subsidy and quality linked policy will be fully implemented, the integration of military and local cotton markets will be smoothly achieved, China Cotton Yarn Trading Center will be established, the cotton and textile clothing industry policy will be further optimized, and the high-quality development of the industry will maintain a good momentum.

　　 "2024 is also a crucial year for the high-quality development of the industry." Yang Baofu, general manager of the national cotton trading market and chairman of the Qingdao West Coast New Area Cotton Association, said that this year the national cotton trading market actively explored a new path of digital transformation to help the industry reduce costs and increase efficiency; The Qingdao West Coast New Area Cotton Association has also made remarkable achievements in promoting the introduction of major policies for the import cotton industry, providing comprehensive services to member units, and promoting coordinated industrial development.

　　 In 2025, uncertainties and unstable factors in the industry will increase, and China's cotton and cotton textile and clothing industry is undergoing profound structural adjustment. Yang Baofu suggested that based on the current situation of the cotton industry, we should continue to make efforts in technological innovation, market expansion and industrial upgrading to promote high-quality development of the cotton industry. First, we should study and judge the situation, take the initiative, and accurately grasp new market opportunities; Second, adhere to the original spirit, stimulate vitality, and firmly establish the concept of innovative development; The third is to build cohesion, complement each other's advantages and amplify the synergy effect.

　　 Yang Bo, member of the Party Working Committee and deputy director of the Management Committee of Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone, said that cotton is not only a cash crop, but also a strategic material, which is related to the national economy, the people's livelihood and national defense security. In recent years, Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone, relying on the advantages of port logistics, regional functions and industrial hinterland, has made great efforts to develop cotton import and international trade business, and has gathered a number of cotton textile trade merchants to invest and start business by building a textile raw material market and providing one-stop investment services; Through the cultivation of industrial Internet platforms such as Yimian and Jumian, convenient online transaction services are provided, which greatly improves transaction efficiency and reduces transaction costs. In 2025, the Free Trade Zone Management Committee will always provide high-quality services and strive to create a development environment of integrity, rule of law and efficiency.

　　 Peng Yan, vice chairman of Zhangjiagang Federation of Industry and Commerce, said that Zhangjiagang, as one of the most active and developed areas of private economy, was the first to feel the "breath of spring" and would continue to march towards a new journey with the courage to be the first in the world. Under the new historical opportunity, the cotton industry will take the opportunity to achieve rapid development in industrial upgrading, market expansion, technological innovation and other aspects, and become an important area of rapid economic growth. In the future, Zhangjiagang Federation of Industry and Commerce will, as always, care about and support the development of the Cotton Chamber of Commerce, listen to the demands of enterprises, and provide strong backing for entrepreneurs to innovate and start businesses.

　　 Xiao Jingyao, President of Zhangjiagang Cotton Chamber of Commerce, said that Zhangjiagang Cotton Chamber of Commerce has gone through 15 years since its establishment. Over the past 15 years, we have kept in mind the purpose of the conference, fully played the role of bridge and link, fully maintained the industry atmosphere, and made efforts for the development of Zhangjiagang's cotton industry and local economy. At the same time, we insist on holding cotton conferences every year, inviting friends from the cotton industry to Zhangjiagang to meet, communicate, enhance friendship, and work together. No matter how the market situation changes, we always adhere to the characteristics of "how to see, how to do", and strive to create the most grounded industry activities, which have been recognized by the cotton industry peers.

　　 Gather action to build the foundation of industrial safety

　　 Chen Tao, honorary chairman of Louis Dreyfus (China), said in the report "New Trends and Impacts of Sino US Relations in the Trump 2.0 Era" that this year, the complexity and uncertainty of the international environment have increased. Enterprises should pay more attention to the current situation, but also to the long-term impact. In addition, he also deeply analyzed the internal logic of cotton price fluctuations, and pointed out that cotton price fluctuations are affected by many factors, such as planting area, output, weather conditions, consumer demand, and policy factors. Enterprises need to pay close attention to the changes of these factors, so as to formulate reasonable planting and management strategies to deal with the risks and challenges brought by market changes.

　　 In the report "2025 cotton drive and potential opportunities", Liu Xin, a well-known cotton investment and research expert and a master of finance from the University of Manchester, UK, focused on the static and dynamic assessment of both the supply and demand sides of the global cotton balance sheet, the assessment of the traditional peak season quality of cotton spinning in 2025, and the impact of macro and systematic drivers on cotton prices in 2025. He pointed out that in view of the obvious increase in the correlation between cotton price and crude oil price, the medium-term crude oil price is expected to decline. It can be considered to use the crude oil price to rise again significantly and empty PTA and staple fiber to replace cotton.

　　 Zheng Shengwei, president of the Textile Research Institute of Xiamen International Trade Group Co., Ltd., analyzed the "China's cotton textile market situation in 2025". From the perspective of imports, the difference between internal and external prices of cotton has narrowed, the quota price has eroded profits, and cotton imports may decline; From the perspective of exports, exports have recovered, import demand in Europe and the United States has increased, and Japan's performance is weak; From the perspective of consumption, the textile enterprises continued to lose profits in processing, and the cotton yarn output declined significantly. However, the raw material inventory of textile enterprises was low, and the cotton yarn inventory at the end of the period declined. The pressure on textile enterprises was greatly alleviated, and the inventory of finished goods ordered by textile mills was insufficient; From the perspective of domestic sales, pay attention to the policy of expanding domestic demand, wait for the performance of downstream consumption, and look for opportunities in the interval shocks.

　　 Wu Shuai, chief exchange rate analyst at the head office of Talon Bank, analyzed the "trend of RMB exchange rate in the Trump 2.0 era", and analyzed the impact of tariff policy on exchange rate, 2025 tariff policy, etc. He said that referring to PIIE (Peterson Institute of International Economics), after imposing 10% tariffs on all imported goods, it is expected that the nominal exchange rate of the United States will increase by 5.2% and decrease by 1% in 2025 under the two conditions of "no countermeasures" and "countermeasures" respectively; After imposing a 60% tariff on imports from China, it is estimated that the nominal exchange rate of the United States will rise by 5.8% and 3% respectively in 2025 under the conditions of "no countermeasures" and "countermeasures". Considering the influence of comprehensive factors, the fluctuation center of RMB exchange rate is around 7.0.

　　 Feng Chenchuang, general manager of Dongwu Jiuying OTC Business Department, shared the "application case of cotton OTC options", explained the difference between OTC options and OTC options, and demonstrated how to use OTC options to implement inventory protection strategies and effectively avoid the risk of inventory depreciation through vivid and specific cases; At the same time, the application of exchange strategy and stock strategy in practical operation is discussed, which provides valuable practical experience and strategic ideas for participants.

　　 In the "Xiangshan Debate", Zhu Gensheng, Secretary General of Zhangjiagang Cotton Chamber of Commerce and General Manager of Ruijia International, presided over, Xiao Jingyao, President of Zhangjiagang Cotton Chamber of Commerce, Zhang Man, General Manager of China Cotton Information Network, Huang Hongyu, President of Henan Tongzhou Cotton Industry Co., Ltd., Guo Chao, General Manager of Hebei Xingyu Textile Raw Materials Co., Ltd., and Shi Yonghui, General Manager of Nantong Yinshuai Textile Co., Ltd, Cheng Sujing, the head of cotton spinning of Zhejiang Huarui Information Co., Ltd., Zheng Danfeng, the chairman of Zhejiang Zhiyi Trading Co., Ltd., and other guests from upstream and downstream of the industrial chain discussed core issues such as the latest trends of cotton market, profound changes in import and export trade, strategic path of sustainable development of the industrial chain, and opportunities and challenges faced by supply chain security, To contribute wisdom and strength to the high-quality development of China's cotton industry.