Analysis Of The Operation Of Key Textile And Garment Companies In The First Half Of 08 Years

　　本文分析了行業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行及出口情況，以及重點(diǎn)公司的上半年的經(jīng)營(yíng)情況。

　　投資要點(diǎn)：

In 08 years and 1-5 months, the total sales revenue of the whole industry reached 12477 billion yuan, an increase of 16.5% over the same period last year, and realized a total profit of 42 billion 800 million yuan, an increase of 9.1% over the same period last year.

Sales revenue and profit growth rate decreased by 7.24 and 32.03 percentage points respectively over the same period last year.

There were 10498 loss making enterprises in the industry, with a loss of 22.85%, an increase of 1.57 percentage points over the same period last year.

In May 08, the industry exported 14 billion 9 million US dollars, an increase of 8.19% over the same period last year, a decrease of 5.28 percentage points over the same period last year.

Among them, textile exports amounted to US $5 billion 969 million, an increase of 23.02% over the previous year, and clothing exports of US $8 billion 40 million, an increase of -0.69% over the same period last year.

Weixing shares (002003): it is expected that the first half performance will grow by 60%, and the mid term EPS will be 0.25 yuan. As the 3 quarter is the peak selling season of the company, it is expected that the annual performance will grow by more than 30% and EPS 0.86 yuan.

Investment rating: increase holdings.

Seven wolves (002029): medium term performance is expected to grow by 180%, EPS 0.30 yuan.

The growth trend of the company will continue in the second half of the year, but the advertising cost will increase substantially during the second half of the Olympic Games. The annual performance is expected to increase by more than 75% and EPS 0.56 yuan.

Investment rating: increase holdings.

Lu Tai A (000726): expected performance in the first half increased by 35%, EPS 0.34 yuan.

Annual performance growth of more than 20%, according to the capital account after the issuance of EPS 0.60 yuan.

Investment rating: cautious increase.

YOUNGOR (600177): medium term profit growth is expected to be close to 30%, earnings per share are 0.30 yuan, plus investment income, EPS is about 0.65 yuan, the main business growth is around 25%, and the main industry earnings per share are about 0.55 yuan.

Investment rating: cautious increase.

Good news bird (002154): the first half is expected to grow by more than 80% yuan, EPS0.14 yuan.

In the second half of last year, the growth rate declined due to the high base last year.

The annual growth is expected to be nearly 30%, EPS0.55 yuan.

Investment rating:

Cautiously increase holdings.

Zhonghe shares (002070): expected medium-term performance fell 15%, EPS0.11 yuan, lower than originally expected.

Annual performance will not increase significantly, EPS0.28 yuan.

Investment rating: cautious increase.

Xun Xing shares (002098): it is expected that the company's medium-term performance growth will be less than 10% yuan, EPS0.23 yuan.

Below market expectations.

In the second half of the year, the external business environment of the company is still difficult to improve. The annual growth of EPS0.50 yuan is less than 20%.

Investment rating: cautious increase.

    1.行業(yè)收入利潤(rùn)增速下降，兩極分化趨勢(shì)更加明顯

In the 08 years 1~5 months, the sales revenue of the whole industry reached 12477 billion yuan, up 16.5% from the same period last year, and the total profit was 42 billion 800 million yuan, up 9.1% over the same period last year.

Sales revenue and profit growth rate decreased by 7.24 and 32.03 percentage points respectively over the same period last year.

There were 10498 loss making enterprises in the industry, with a loss of 22.85%, an increase of 1.57 percentage points over the same period last year.

The decline in profit growth is far more than the decline in operating income. In addition to the rapid growth of costs and expenses, the changes in the return on investment brought about by capital market adjustment are also one of the reasons.

We believe that the rapid rise in raw material and labour prices and tight monetary policy have put great pressure on the textile industry.

Coupled with the continued appreciation of the renminbi and the weakening demand from the global economy, it is expected that the growth of operating revenue and profit will continue to decline in the future.

In the increasingly difficult situation of the industry, the polarization is also more prominent.

According to statistics, the profits generated by 1/3 enterprises in the industry account for 98% of the profits of the industry, while the profits generated by the remaining 2/3 enterprises account for only 2%.

In the context of tight credit, SMEs are more difficult to obtain loans than high quality enterprises, and the cost of loans is higher.

In addition, the new labor law has greater impact on the small and medium-sized enterprises which are not yet standardized. These are the reasons for the polarization of the industry.

This trend is expected to continue. Many small and medium enterprises will face the fate of being shut down or acquired, and the competitive enterprises will gain greater market share.

    2.出口增速繼續(xù)下降，服裝出口出現(xiàn)負(fù)增長(zhǎng)

In May 08, the industry exported 14 billion 9 million US dollars, an increase of 8.19% over the same period last year, a decrease of 5.28 percentage points over the same period last year.

Among them, textile exports amounted to 5 billion 969 million US dollars, an increase of 23.02% over the same period last year, and clothing exports of US $8 billion 40 million, an increase of -0.69% over the same period last year. This is the first time that China's clothing exports have been experiencing negative growth for the first time since the entry into the WTO (excluding the objective impact months).

In 1~5 months, the industry exported 71 billion 316 million US dollars, an increase of 12.42% over the same period last year.

The sustained and rapid appreciation of the RMB is the main reason for the decline of textile and garment exports. In the first half of 08 years, the cumulative rise of RMB against the US dollar was close to 7%, and there is no sign of slowing down.

The decline in demand brought about by the US recession has also had a great impact on exports, especially exports of downstream clothing products.

In addition, based on the expectation that the export tax rebate will increase after the export tax rebate is raised, the export pressure is also one of the reasons for the rapid decline in export growth.

No matter whether the export tax rebate rate is up or not, the export growth rate in the next few months should be rebounded, and the annual growth rate should be maintained at over 10%.

Rumors about the export tax rebate rate increase need to be clear about the policy.

We believe that the appropriate increase in the export tax rebate rate is of positive significance for reducing employment pressure and maintaining social stability, but it has little impact on the actual business.

On the one hand, the fundamental reason for the decline in exports is the continued appreciation of the renminbi and the decrease in competitiveness brought about by the rising cost of raw materials and labor prices. On the other hand, because our export enterprises do not have the advantage in bargaining power, the preferential tax rebate increase can not be fully enjoyed by domestic enterprises.

In addition, a few days ago, the performance of the textile sector has already included the expectation of export tax rebates. Even if the export tax rebates were set up, there was limited space for the textile sector to continue to rise.

    3.重點(diǎn)公司上半年經(jīng)營(yíng)狀況分析及中期業(yè)績(jī)預(yù)測(cè)

3.1. Weixing shares (002003)

High growth momentum continued in the first half of this year.

The depression of the small and medium-sized enterprises in the downstream garment industry has not affected the company.

The company's products are mainly matched with brand clothing, and the orders are still full. In the first half of the year, the cost of the company has gone up, but the company continues to pass the pressure of the cost increase by means of new product development.

In the first half of the year, the company received a 10 million 400 thousand yuan income tax exemption from domestic equipment, plus a decrease in the income tax rate. It expects to grow by more than 60% in the first half of the year and 0.25 yuan in the medium term. The 3 quarter is the peak season for sales of the company, and its annual performance is expected to grow by more than 30% and EPS 0.86 yuan, EPS.

Investment rating: increase holdings.

3.2. seven wolves (002029)

In the first half of the year, except for sales in May, sales of the company continued to flourish, and more than 200 stores expanded.

The order will be enthusiastic at the order meeting.

In order to speed up capital turnover, garment delivery in the second half of this year is obviously ahead of schedule.

Coupled with a low base in the first half of last year, interim results are expected to grow by more than 180%, EPS 0.30 yuan.

The growth trend of the company will continue in the second half of the year, but the advertising cost will increase substantially during the second half of the Olympic Games. The annual performance is expected to increase by more than 75% and EPS 0.56 yuan.

Investment rating: increase holdings.

3.3. Lu Tai A (000726)

In the context of accelerated appreciation of the renminbi, the company has accelerated technological progress, and a number of leading technologies and products with world leading level have been developed and applied by the company so that the gross margin of the company is still above 27%.

In the first half of this year, 20 million Beige weaving and other projects were put into operation. The performance in the first half of this year is expected to grow by 35%, EPS 0.34 yuan.

There are more than 450 outlets in the brand development and marketing network construction of the subsidiary company, which is engaged in the domestic market.

It is estimated that sales revenue will reach 170 million yuan in 08 years.

The company will continue to invest in the marketing network.

The 08 year performance is expected to grow by 20%, which is EPS 0.60 yuan.

Investment rating: cautious increase.

3.4. Zhonghe shares (002070)

Printing and dyeing industry is a large energy consumption (steam) water consumption, affected by the sharp rise in energy and dye material prices and environmental pressure. In the first half of this year, a large number of small and medium-sized dyeing and printing enterprises in Guangdong and Zhejiang were closed down.

The company is also affected by the above, and the cost pressure is increasing.

However, the closure of small businesses has filled the company's orders, and the price of the products increased by 8% in the first half of the year.

The new products such as wool and cotton developed by the company sell well and have high profits.

In the first half of the year, Warren's printing and dyeing is a plus factor, but the cancellation of preferential policies of income tax and value-added tax has become a reduction factor.

Medium-term performance is expected to decline 15% compared to the same period last year, EPS0.11 yuan, lower than originally expected.

At present, the industry is at a low ebb, and the company's low-cost acquisition plan has been going on.

In the second half of the year, a company has put into operation the investment project. It is expected that the annual performance will not increase significantly, EPS0.28 yuan.

Investment rating: cautious increase.

3.5. Xun Xing shares (002098)

In the first half of the year, due to the shrinking of OEM exports in clothing, bags and other downstream manufacturing industries, the orders for the customers of this company decreased significantly, but the orders of domestic brand clothing enterprises were still sufficient.

In the first half of the year, the labor cost of the company rose significantly, the cost of raw materials was basically stable, and the price of products did not improve.

The Tianjin and Dongguan subsidiaries invested by the company are still in the investment period, although they have been put into operation, but the benefits are limited.

It is expected that the company's medium-term performance growth will be less than 10%, EPS0.23 yuan.

Below market expectations.

In the second half of the year, the external business environment of the company is still difficult to improve. The annual growth of EPS0.50 yuan is less than 20%.

Investment rating: cautious increase.

3.6. wedding bird (002154)

In the first half of the year, the number of marketing outlets increased from 585 at the beginning of the year to more than 630.

The company's professional wear business is developing well, and the newly acquired treasure bird company's orders are full; the e-commerce business of the company has invested heavily last year, and then lost money in that year.

In the first half of the year, there is still a slight deficit and it is expected to turn around the deficit in the second half of the year.

The company's fashion products will be launched in September to cater for the coming season of autumn and winter product sales.

The first half performance is expected to grow by more than 80% yuan, EPS0.14 yuan.

In the second half of last year, the growth rate declined due to the high base last year.

The annual growth is expected to be nearly 30%, EPS0.55 yuan.

Investment rating: cautious increase.

3.7. YOUNGOR (600177)

Thanks to the integration of domestic channels and brand promotion, the company's domestic apparel business continued to grow in the first half of this year.

Sales revenue is expected to grow by 15% and profit growth by 25%.

Since January, the new overseas Malaysia company has begun to list, but the main garment export of the company is difficult to grow significantly under the background of the sluggish trade in clothing.

If the future new horse business is integrated with the company's clothing business, the integration effect is worth looking forward to.

The textile business of the company is subject to the appreciation of the renminbi and the industrial background of the decline in exports. It is expected that revenue will increase in the first half of this year, but the drop in profits is inevitable.

Due to the increase of settlement area, the sales volume of mid-term sales will increase by about 35%.

At present, the housing prices in Ningbo have not declined. The second half of the year, there are four seasons garden, Suzhou and other projects.

In the first half of the year, some stocks of CITIC Securities were reduced, and the investment income will reach the level of the same period last year.

It is estimated that the profit growth of the medium term main business is nearly 30%, earnings per share is 0.30 yuan, plus investment income, EPS is about 0.65 yuan, the main business growth is about 25% in the whole year, and the main industry earnings per share are about 0.55 yuan.

Investment rating: cautious increase.