The General Administration Of Customs Estimates That Exports To The US Will Increase To 8.9%.

Yesterday, the article from the statistical analysis Office of the General Statistics Department of the General Administration of Customs put forward early warning and suggested that ensuring stable and healthy development of export trade to the US will play an important role in preventing our exports from continuing to slow down.

The reason for early warning is that China exported $116 billion 790 million to the US in the first half of this year, an increase of 8.9% over the same period last year. This is the first time that China's export growth to the US has dropped to single digits in the past 7 years.

The increase is much lower than the total export.

The growth rate of 8.9% is far below the 21.8% growth rate of China's total foreign trade exports over the same period. The growth rate of China's exports to the United States dropped by 9 percentage points over the same period last year.

Data show that China exported $107 billion 230 million to the US in the first half of 2007, an increase of 17.8% over the same period last year.

In the first half of the year, the US trade surplus reached US $753.1, an increase of 1.9% over the same period last year.

Although the United States still maintains the second largest export market position in China, its export growth is only slightly higher than that of Hongkong, ranking the second largest in the top 10 export markets.

In the first half of this year, China's exports to the United States showed a general contraction.

Statistics show that, first, the export growth of processing trade is weak; second, the growth rate of four major export provinces in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shanghai and Zhejiang has come down in an all-round way; third, the export growth rate of electromechanical products has slowed down, and the export of clothing and accessories, mobile phones, plastic products and toys has declined to varying degrees.

In contrast, the total export of mechanical and electrical products in China in the first half of this year amounted to US $388 billion 780 million, an increase of 25.4%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points over the same period last year.

The General Administration of Customs believes that the dual impact of the spread of the US subprime crisis and the accelerated appreciation of the renminbi in the first half of this year is the main reason for the sharp fall in the growth rate of US exports to the US.

The rise in domestic labor costs, the increase in raw material prices and the substantial reduction or cancellation of the export tax rebate rate, coupled with the tight monetary policy, have increased the pressure on enterprises' capital, and the export profits of enterprises have been further squeezed, and export power has decreased significantly, which has become another important reason for the growth of US exports.

GDP grew by 10.4% in the first half of this year, down 1.8% from last year's year-on-year growth rate.

As one of the "three carriages" driving GDP growth, exports are becoming increasingly "physically inadequate".

Stabilizing exports has become an important goal of macroeconomic operation in the second half of the year.

Annual growth is still going down.

Huang Guohua, director of the statistical analysis Office of the General Statistics Department of the General Administration of customs, told reporters that the General Administration of customs is responsible for the statistics of specific foreign trade data of the whole country.

However, the General Administration of Customs will not put forward specific policy advice. It is only in the big policy that the United States should pay attention to this market.

When it comes to policy proposals for export trade to the US in the second half of this year, the Ministry of Commerce's foreign trade research expert, who does not want to be named, thinks that China's export trade policy toward the United States will remain stable in the second half of the year because of the slowdown in consumption demand in the US, and the possibility of exporting stimulus to the US is unlikely. The annual growth rate is likely to be lower than 8.9% in the first half of the year.

The expert pointed out that China's current exports to the EU and Japan are relatively stable, and the growth rate of exports to emerging markets is relatively fast, which indirectly offset the slowdown in US exports. The overall growth rate of foreign trade exports is 21.8%, which is in line with expectations and has achieved the goal of macroeconomic regulation and control.

Therefore, the slowdown in US exports will not have a big impact on the whole.

Zhao Yumin, director of the international marketing department of the Ministry of Commerce, proposed policy proposals for US exports to the US in the second half of the year from the perspective of exchange rate.

At present, Global trade is in a state of imbalance. In the first half of the year, China's trade policy is adjusting the imbalances of the global economy. The slowdown in exports to the US is caused by policy guidance.

"The exchange rate will slow down in the second half of the year, and the dollar will also start to strengthen.

The export trade to the United States should be restored. "

Zhao Yumin predicts.